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Roger Smith

May 2019 temperature forecast contest (and seasonal MAX)

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Due to a planned week away, I am posting this early, should be back by 30th to add my own forecast. As per recent years, we will add a seasonal MAX component for the same nine locations (highest temperature you forecast for all of 2019). 

 

Predict the temp anomaly (F deg) and seasonal MAX for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

(the seasonal MAX can be edited or submitted up to May 15th). 

Have somewhat relaxed late penalties for various entries in past months, so will standardize some new more relaxed deductions as follows:

-1% for any portion of six hours each of the first six hour intervals, so -6% to 18z May 2

-1% for any portion of three hours thereafter to 18z May 3, then 1% per hour (fully expires 08z May 7th). 

Sometime when I have a moment, I will go back over late penalties and see if any of them would be reduced by these formulae but I don't think they would because I have been about that lenient anyway.

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DCA:  +1.8  102

NYC:  +2.0  100

BOS:  +1.9  101

ORD:  +1.1 100

ATL:   +0.9  99

IAH:  +0.2  104

DEN:  -0.6  102

PHX:  +0.3  118

SEA:  +2.2  95

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DCA:  +2.7  97

NYC:  +2.2  96

BOS:  +1.4  95

ORD:  +0.7  96

ATL:   +2.8  98

IAH:  +0.4  100

DEN:  -0.3  100

PHX:  +0.1  116

SEA:  +2.8   95

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.7      0.9     0.2        0.2     2.3     1.4       -1.0     -0.1    0.3 

100     98      96         96      98      102       98      117     93

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DCA:  +1.9  99

NYC:  +1.6  99

BOS:  +1.5   96

ORD:  +0.2   100

ATL:   +2.2  101

IAH:  +0.5   102

DEN:  -0.8   99

PHX:  +0.6   119

SEA:  +0.8    97

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     0.5     0.5         0.5         1.0    1.5        0.0      0.5      0.0

102    100    98         96       101      105       95        117    93

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.2     0.0     -1.0      -1.5     3.1     1.1       -2.1     0.0    2.7 

99      98       96         95      99    101        98      116     92

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DCA:  +2.1  100

NYC:  +1.0 98

BOS:  +0.3 96

ORD:  +1.0 99

ATL:   +1.3  99

IAH:  +0.6 100

DEN:  -0.2  100

PHX:  +0.2  117

SEA:  +2.0  94

 
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--1.0 _ --1.2 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 _ --1.2 _ --2.0 _ +2.7 _ +1.8

107 __ 104 __ 105 __ 103 __ 101 __ 101 __ 104 __ 120 __ 100

I think it might be a very hot summer. 

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Table of forecasts for May 2019

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

RodneyS __________________ +3.2__0.0_--1.0 _ --1.5_+3.1_+1.1 ___ --2.1__0.0_+2.7 

wxallannj __________________ +2.7_+2.2_+1.4 _ +0.7_+2.8_+0.4 ___ --0.3_+0.1_+2.8

BKViking __________________ +2.1_+1.0_+0.3 _ +1.0_+1.3_+0.6 ___ --0.2_+0.2_+2.0

Tom ______________________ +1.9_+1.6_+1.5 _ +0.2_+2.2_+0.5 ___ --0.8_+0.6_+0.8

wxdude64 _________________ +1.8_+2.0_+1.9 _ +1.1_+0.9_+0.2 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+2.2

 

____ Consensus ____________ +1.8_+1.0_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.9_+0.6 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+1.8

 

DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.7_+0.9_+0.2 _ +0.2_+2.3_+1.4 ___ --1.0_--0.1_+0.3

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.3_+1.2_+0.7 _ +0.8_+1.9_+1.0 ___ --0.1_+0.3_+0.7

Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0_+0.5_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.0_+1.5 ____ 0.0_+0.5__0.0

____ Normal ________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0

Roger Smith _______________ --1.0_--1.2_--1.5 _ --1.5_--0.7_--1.2 ___ --2.0_+2.7_+1.8

 

Seasonal Max contest for 2019

Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100

wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95

Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94

BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94

DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93

Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __  96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92

wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

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Anomalies after first week

+6.7 _ --0.4 _ --2.1 __ --4.6 _ +6.6 _ +1.5 ___ --1.4 _ --1.4 _ +4.0

(trends look broadly similar, will not have much time to update this thread until later parts of the month, moving house in the next week or so)

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My move has come to a generally successful conclusion (I have internet anyway) ... so here's an update and the first projections of the month.

 

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_____ (anom 7 d) _____+6.7 _--0.4 _--2.1 ___ --4.6 _+6.6 _+1.5 ___ --1.4 _--1.4 _+4.0

_____ (anom 17d) ____ +2.8 _--2.3 _--2.5 ___ --3.4 _+4.0 _--0.3 ___ --1.2 _--2.2 _+5.7

_____ (anom 24d) _____+3.7 _--0.8 _--0.3 ___ --2.6 _+5.2 _+1.3 ___ --5.6 _--5.3 _+4.8

 

_____ (p24 d) ________+3.5 _--0.5 _--0.8 ___ --1.8 _+5.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.3 _--2.5 _+4.0

18th_ (p31 d) ________ +3.0 _--0.5_--1.0 ___ --1.5 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ --2.0 _--1.5 _+3.0

25th_ (p31 d) ________ +5.0 _+0.5_+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ --4.5 _--5.0 _+3.5

 1st _ final anomalies __ +5.0 _--0.2 _--0.1 ___--1.1 _+6.3 _+1.7 ___ --5.5 _--5.9 _+4.5

 

(25th) _ The previous week was well predicted by NWS (except for DEN where snow probably lowered the temperatures more than predicted) but the coming week was not well handled in the GFS 8-14 day outlook from 18th, now it's more of a heat wave showing up in the east, especially for DCA and ATL, so anomalies are pushed up considerably for end of month there. 

(June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted and scoring adjusted where necessary. 

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Final scoring for May 2019

These scores are based on confirmed end of month anomalies in the previous post. DCA will remain on normal scoring as RodneyS scored 64. Scoring progression is used for ATL, DEN and PHX (forecasters score at least 60,52,44,36,28,20,12,06,00 in each case replaced by actual raw score if that were higher). These scores are in play for ATL where RodneyS has a raw score of 49 and DEN where RodneyS has a raw score of 47 also.  The projection at PHX is even more drastic (-5.0), DonS (-0.1) had a raw score of 1 point for lowest forecast, and everyone else zero, so the progression certainly is needed there. 

 

FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL (all nine)

 

RodneyS __________________ 64 _ 96 _82 __242__ 9260_ 88__240__ 482 __ 60 _ 52 _ 64 __ 176_____ 658

DonSutherland1 ____________ 34 _ 78 _ 94__ 206 __ 74 _ 44 _ 94__212 __ 418 __ 44 _ 60 _ 16 __ 120 _____ 538

wxallannj __________________54 _ 52 _ 70 __ 176 __ 64 _ 52 _ 68__190 __ 366 __ 20 _ 44 _ 66 __ 130 _____ 496

 

____ Consensus ____________ 36 _ 76 _ 88 __ 200 __ 68 _ 28 _ 72__174 __ 374 __ 28 _ 28 _ 46 __ 102 _____ 476

 

BKViking __________________ 42 _ 76 _ 92 __ 210__ 58 _ 20 _ 78__156 __ 366 __ 12 _ 36 _ 50 __ 098 _____ 464

Tom ______________________38 _ 64 _ 68 __ 170 __ 74 _ 36 _ 76__186 __ 356 __ 36 _ 06 _ 26 __ 068 _____ 424

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 26 _ 72 _ 84 __ 182 __ 62 _ 28 _ 86__176 __ 358 __ 06 _ 28 _ 24 __ 058 _____ 416

____ Normal _______________ 00 _ 96 _ 98 __194 __ 78 _ 00 _ 66__144 __ 338 __ 00 _ 52 _ 10 __ 072 _____ 410

wxdude64 _________________ 36 _ 56 _ 60 __ 162 __ 56 _ 09 _ 70__135  __ 287 __ 28 _ 28 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 397

Scotty Lightning _____________20 _ 86 _ 88 __ 194 __ 68 _ 12 _ 96 __176 __370 __ 00 _ 12 _ 10 __ 022 _____ 392

Roger Smith _______________  00 80 72 __ 152 __ 92 _00 _ 42 __134 __ 286 __ 52 00 _ 46 __ 098 _____ 384

______________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts for May 2019

Eight locations qualify. 

For DCA (+5.0) RodneyS (+3.2) has a win.

For NYC (-0.2) RodneyS (0.0) has a win and Roger Smith (-1.2) has a loss.

For BOS (-0.1) third lowest forecast has high score so BOS does not qualify.

For ORD (-1.1), RodneyS and Roger Smith tie for a win with shared lowest forecasts (-1.5). 

For ATL, RodneyS has high forecast (+3.1) with the finish at +6.3. 

For IAH, Scotty Lightning has the win with high forecast (+1.5) which is cooler than the final value of +1.8.

For DEN, RodneyS (-2.1) has the win with coldest forecast, final value is -5.5. 

For PHX, DonSutherland1 (-0.1) with coldest forecast has a win as the outcome is -5.9. 

For SEA, wxallannj (+2.8) with warmest forecast has a win with the result +4.5. 

 

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<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-May 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 285 _398 _380__1063 __322 _330 _422__1074__2137__355 _334 _288 __ 977 ___3114

DonSutherland.1 __________281 _424 _320 __1025 __286 _276 _406 __ 968 __ 1993 __ 319 _358_312__ 989___2982

 

___ Consensus ___________ 325_432_360 __1117__314 _274 _382 __ 970 __ 2087 __ 279 _290 _248 __ 817 ___2904

 

wxdude64 _______________321 _403 _351 __1075 __345 _238 _365 __ 948 __ 2023 __ 284 _281 _213 __ 778____ 2801

wxallannj ________________316 _366 _372 __1054 __252 _334_376 __ 962 __2016 __ 226 _294 _226 __ 746 ____2762

hudsonvalley21 ___________277 _432 _376__1085 __274 _292 _368 __ 934 __2019 __ 191 _300 _244 __ 735 ____2754

Roger Smith _____________ 318 _360 _348 __1026 __222 _244 _356 __ 822 __1848 __ 331 _246 _258 __ 835 ____2683

BKViking ________________ 327 _430 _358 __1115__285 _228 _343 __ 856 __1971 __ 231 _240 _211 __ 682 ____2653

Tom ____________________233 _392 _292 ___917 __ 370 _176 _382 __ 928 __1845 __209 _272 _228 __ 709 ____2554

Scotty Lightning ___________275 _392 _368 __1035 __270 _272 _366 __ 908 __1943 __ 146 _236 _214 __ 596 ____2539

___ Normal ______________ 212 _412 _340 __ 964 __ 298 _170 _376 __ 844 __1808 __ 165 _323 _191 __ 679 ____2487

Stebo (4/5) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225

RJay (4/5) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ MAR

wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

 

STANDINGS to date in 2019

RodneyS ____________ 9-3

Roger Smith _________ 8-3

DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0

Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0

Normal __________ 3-0

Stebo ______________ 3-1

wxallannj ____________2-1

hudsonvalley21 _______1-0

RJay ________________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

 

______________________________________________________________________________

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Four Seasons scoring update

(Spring March, April, May)

Rankings from winter with spring added in second line for each forecaster

east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks.

* indicates tied rankings

(note format is based on low score total ranking) (numbers indicate ranks, 1 = first or highest total, etc)

__ a perfect score would be 12 in this format.

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL

 

RodneyS _________winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67

________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ __2 __ 1*__( 1) __ ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______19 __ (86)

 

DonSutherland.1 __ winter __ 4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46

________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43 __ (89)

 

wxallannj ________ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 ____ 1 __ ( 1) _____ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1  ______47

________________ spring __ 3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) _____ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59 __ (106) 

 

___ Consensus ____winter__  5 __ 6 __ 6  __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __  ___6*__ 6 __ 5  ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71

________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 ______ 40 __ (111)

 

hudsonvalley21 ____winter __5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54

________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 __ (118)

 

Roger Smith ______winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7)  __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _10 __ 9 __ ( 9) _____ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81 __ (145)

 

Scotty Lightning ___winter___2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 85 __ (149)

 

wxdude64 ________winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9  ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9  __10 ____10_____100

________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___ 4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 3 ______ 52 __ (152)

 

Tom ____________ winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96

________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 _____ 65 __ (161)

 

BKViking _________winter __ 7 __ 3  __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85

________________ spring __  __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) __ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 76 __ (161)

 

___ Normal _______winter___9 __  3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86

________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 __ (9) __ 9 ____11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91 __ (177)

 

Stebo ____________winter__ 6  __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81

________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204)

 

RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86

________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __ (207)

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