gravitylover

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2019

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Getting cold in a hurry now.

Doesn't it figure, the last great meteor shower of the year and we're gonna get skunked again. I'm making a goal of seeing a few next year so if anyone wants to take a ride and chase clear viewing weather let me know.

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18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Getting cold in a hurry now.

Doesn't it figure, the last great meteor shower of the year and we're gonna get skunked again. I'm making a goal of seeing a few next year so if anyone wants to take a ride and chase clear viewing weather let me know.

Well, that's all of next year's meteor showers ruined. Nice going, jerk :P

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Still snow at my stakes this morning, impressive.  Looks like most will be gone tomorrow morning, can't complain about 13 days with snow cover though.

agreed.  still covered and looking wintry at my place.  so no complaints for the first 2 weeks in december.  and I'd rather have a warm up now than come xmas.  dont want anything to do with a grinch storm.

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Snow mud snow mud... Not so sure I'm liking this winter so far and if what some of the guys in the main forum are talking about is true it's looking like more mud than anything else for the next few weeks. Is there an upside to today being 9* below predictions?

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On 12/10/2019 at 10:15 PM, Juliancolton said:

Man alive... it feels like it's been raining for a month. Multi-day rainstorms around the shortest daylight hours of the year are atrocious. Making some headway on temp, at least. 34F now. 

Same as it ever was.

Pretty remarkable that not enough halfway through December, many of us are already well average on the month for both rain *and* snow. Active pattern, to be sure.

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Add another .25" since 5am. No more snow and even my big driveway pile ought to be gone in a few more hours. I literally spent an extra half hour or so moving all of the snow from the driveway to one sheltered spot in the bushes and got the pile about 3 feet high hoping to save it. I think I've lost it a little bit after having to sit out last winter and watch from the sidelines.

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10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Add another .25" since 5am. No more snow and even my big driveway pile ought to be gone in a few more hours. I literally spent an extra half hour or so moving all of the snow from the driveway to one sheltered spot in the bushes and got the pile about 3 feet high hoping to save it. I think I've lost it a little bit after having to sit out last winter and watch from the sidelines.

Harvesting snow is ‘nothing to be ashamed of.  #weenieproud

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6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I still have scattered snow around the yard and plenty of piles but officially zero at the stake this morning. 

Yep you beat me to it.

The consecutive days with snow OTG streak ends at 13 today. I'm hoping we start a new streak on Tuesday. I'd like to believe the Euro's 6-8 inches for Monday night but a very iffy setup and lots of mid level warming, so I'm doubting it for now.

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15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yep you beat me to it.

The consecutive days with snow OTG streak ends at 13 today. I'm hoping we start a new streak on Tuesday. I'd like to believe the Euro's 6-8 inches for Monday night but a very iffy setup and lots of mid level warming, so I'm doubting it for now.

Did the 6z show 6-8”?  I saw 4-6” across all of the OC for the 0z from my source. 

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4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

We both know about snow maps...but here’s the one I saw:

 

D3F25FFD-E4A5-4785-89D2-987F18BEB950.png

It must be the 10:1 ratio map vs actual.  Although I find it hard to believe that in this setup ratios would be higher than 10:1. Maybe on the initial thump they will be though.

I never get my hopes up for these setups, the changeover to frozen seems to happen earlier too often, later in the event less often, or not at all not enough for my liking. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon runs say.

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It must be the 10:1 ratio map vs actual.  Although I find it hard to believe that in this setup ratios would be higher than 10:1. Maybe on the initial thump they will be though.

I never get my hopes up for these setups, the changeover to frozen seems to happen earlier too often, later in the event less often, or not at all not enough for my liking. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon runs say.

Yep, just look at two weeks ago, the flip to sleet was pretty much from the start rather than after some accumulation, at least over here it was anyway. 

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15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It must be the 10:1 ratio map vs actual.  Although I find it hard to believe that in this setup ratios would be higher than 10:1. Maybe on the initial thump they will be though.

I never get my hopes up for these setups, the changeover to frozen seems to happen earlier too often, later in the event less often, or not at all not enough for my liking. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon runs say.

Full agreement 

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14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yep, just look at two weeks ago, the flip to sleet was pretty much from the start rather than after some accumulation, at least over here it was anyway. 

The flip to sleet is almost always sooner than expected.  Happens every single freaking time in these setups in my experience. 

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The latest GFS is almost entirely freezing rain for most here, ending as light snow. The trend has been for a slightly tighter circulation and as a result we get a northerly low-level flow throughout the event, supplying the fresh cold air source necessary for an ice storm. My annual reminder that ice accretes on elevated surfaces (everything that isn't the ground) at about 0.75:1 on average so you need to be especially careful with modeled freezing rain totals which, as far as I know, still assume 1:1.

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.8 inches of ZR.?  with no thawing all week?   That is a disaster if it occurs.  Esp because the nyseg trucks have not been mobilized like in past storms in preparation.

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On 12/15/2019 at 1:16 AM, gravitylover said:

I'm getting the feeling that I should pull the generator out today and make sure it's good to go.

I had the same thought this morning, then figured, "Eh, what's the difference?" If it doesn't work, I'm not getting another one by midnight tonight anyway :lol:

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