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AMZ8990

Fall Speculation 2018

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GFS (old and new), EURO, CMC, and NAVGEM all show some sort of tropical critter aimed at the SE in the 7 - 10 day time frame as the Ridge O' DOOM(c) starts to slip north and east and realigned from SE to NW. Maybe this ultimately helps change things up? Of course it is in the 7 - 10 day range, so who knows.  Even if it happens, my experience makes me think the 10 days+ window is more likely as these things tend to take longer than models suggest.  Some models say Gulf, some say SE coast, so will be interesting to see how it plays it if it happens. Could end up just being a piddly little tropical low resupplying us with some nice, refreshing tropical air in mid October ;) .

le sigh 

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23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Finally...some hope that the heat ridge will be broken, even if just temporarily.  Below is the 48 hour shot from the Euro ensemble.  The other screenshot is the 15 day(yeah...way out there and woefully undependable...but still...a glimmer.  As you can see, no help from the North Atlantic, but the Pacific improves greatly.  Even a little bit of split flow is apparent (if only it was winter).  Now, I think this switch is going to happen.  Timing is never perfect at this range.  It is likely that the models are "jumping the gun" just a bit.  The first cooler air masses may have a tough time driving south of the Ohio river.   However, the GFS and its ensembles(18z at a glance has it...and sporadically prior to this run) are showing some hope.  The cold shot into the northern Rockies during the middle of next week "should" signal the first push of cold air into the US that has the ability to push eastward.  IMO, that is the beginning of a move to more seasonal temps at the worst.  That said, one can see that even when the trough kicks eastward...the ridge is still there but squashed.

@John1122, you were not kidding about the warm evening temps.  Last night's low at TRI was 60.  The normal is 49.  We had lows in the mid 60s last week, and near 70 the week before.  

@*Flash*, how goes it?  What do you see?

@nrgjeff, where have you been, man?  Hope all is well.  Looking forward to your comments, even if just cold water. :thumbsup:

@Save the itchy algae!, great post by John and hope that helps!

Screen Shot 2018-10-02 at 7.39.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-10-02 at 7.38.13 PM.png

Nice to see the omega ridge broaden and flatten by mid-month. Really anytime you're stuck in a warm pattern thanks to some type of ill-placed cross-polar flow (be it ridging or troughing), you want to see tamer anomalies indicative of more mobile features.  I think this take is realistic in the sense it captures the gradualness of change and how our road to seasonal norms starts with cool fronts, not cold fronts. Also, I want to see that southwestern blue disappear. While the W3 look is clearly superior to W1, I'd hate to see a 10/1-6/1954-esque omega ridge yield into some tropically-induced rex block/southwest flow keeping the torch alive. Still think whenever we do turn cool, it's going to turn cool quickly, in part, due to the lack of modification potential by early October standards. Furthermore, you gotta factor in the year's temperature narrative, specifically the sudden transitions between seasons. As we all recall, we went winter to summer in late April so perhaps we'll do the reverse 6 months later in late October. Kinda has a romantic symmetry to it if you ask me. Then again, we're about weather here, poetry be darned. All I know is: these upper 80's are fueling my S.A.D. I'll take any semblance of fall at this point. 

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18 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Nice to see the omega ridge broaden and flatten by mid-month. Really anytime you're stuck in a warm pattern thanks to some type of ill-placed cross-polar flow (be it ridging or troughing), you want to see tamer anomalies indicative of more mobile features.  I think this take is realistic in the sense it captures the gradualness of change and how our road to seasonal norms starts with cool fronts, not cold fronts. Also, I want to see that southwestern blue disappear. While the W3 look is clearly superior to W1, I'd hate to see a 10/1-6/1954-esque omega ridge yield into some tropically-induced rex block/southwest flow keeping the torch alive. Still think whenever we do turn cool, it's going to turn cool quickly, in part, due to the lack of modification potential by early October standards. Furthermore, you gotta factor in the year's temperature narrative, specifically the sudden transitions between seasons. As we all recall, we went winter to summer in late April so perhaps we'll do the reverse 6 months later in late October. Kinda has a romantic symmetry to it if you ask me. Then again, we're about weather here, poetry be darned. All I know is: these upper 80's are fueling my S.A.D. I'll take any semblance of fall at this point. 

0z GFS at 500 lookin' good. GEFS not far behind. Still hard to get too excited about anything 240 hours out; however, there's a shot hope arrives next weekend. I am fairly strict about my first #PSL. Maybe I'll get lucky and go after church on Sunday, October 14. ;)

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Confidence is increasing we finally get some fall weather per timing just above. Mid-latitudes and tropics appear to both attack the SER.

Tropics stuff can cause heat in August, but in October they usually end up ushering in cooler weather.

Then the mid-latitude system has a robust cold air mass with which to work. Cold probably won't rush in here, but the SER can't resist forever. 

OK it just held up for a really long time, but that's not forever, lol!

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25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We tied the record Thursday dating back in the 1890's,Hit 92 yesterday and also tied that record back in 1954,both for record highs.Thursday was 91.

 

Wow!  Been like that here too.  Pretty crazy stuff for October.  I haven’t verified but I’m sure we broke a record once over the past 2 weeks.

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Hoping for a decent system  just past the mid month.The Euro looks to fast but at the same time by Wednesday which would be the 10th has a nice closed low around North Korea and China.The GEFS shows volatility with the PNA.Our "HP'  looks to get broke down mid week,so we'll see.Would love to hear some thunder with some BN temps afterwards,probably to early for fall severe with a good frontal passage.So we'll see once again.

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41 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

30's!!! :o Seriously, this will probably modify into 40's as we draw nearer, but still...big changes are goin' down either way. 

IMG_6323.PNG

Nice to see BN temps being shown for a change..Euro isn't as bullish as the GFS,but what's new

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GFS at 12z is all in for a freeze most areas North of 40 between day 8-10. The Euro from last night was suggest mid to upper 30s in those areas. The Canadian is about 15-20 degrees warmer in the same time frame than the GFS and is the warmest of the three. The experimental FV3 GFS is closer to the Euro. Either way, we're going to abruptly go from mid summer temperatures to mid fall temperatures. Highs will probably not get out of the 60s in some areas this weekend. Higher elevations will see 40s and 50s for highs. Crazy year, 90s to 60s without much middle ground and a few days apart.

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The Euro Weeklies (run is not completed...I can see some of the drop down menu for the full run) look like they are now advertising a pattern change and not just a one-off week or two of cold.  They have been slowly moving towards this for a couple of runs.  The end of the run washes out and goes zonal which is definitely an option if the trough retreats into Canada.  Overall, very nice sign for some good ol' fall weather in the valleys and cold at elevation.  @nrgjeff, what do you think about the run.  I am keeping it short so as to give you plenty of room to maneuver.  Give us some Rock Chalk spin!  (am I doing that right?)  :thumbsup:

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18 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies (run is not completed...I can see some of the drop down menu for the full run) look like they are now advertising a pattern change and not just a one-off week or two of cold.  They have been slowly moving towards this for a couple of runs.  The end of the run washes out and goes zonal which is definitely an option if the trough retreats into Canada.  Overall, very nice sign for some good ol' fall weather in the valleys and cold at elevation.  @nrgjeff, what do you think about the run.  I am keeping it short so as to give you plenty of room to maneuver.  Give us some Rock Chalk spin!  (am I doing that right?)  :thumbsup:

It’s a solid run if you like stark color changes and rapid rates of de-leafing. I’ve been in middle Tennessee the past 26 falls and I’m expecting this one to be among the top ‘0 to 60’ we’ve ever seen in that span.

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Euro goes all in cooler pattern. Is it playing on tilt? CFS hints and more zonal or split flow, vs meridonal, in later weeks. CFS has in the past sniffed out warmer regimes. However some teleconnections support the Euro. Short term issues like Michael dominate my time though. At least we know endless summer is over!

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It would be very nice to get that cooler November. Even 1 degree below normal seems to make a pretty big difference in how winter plays out. It's not a guaranteed analog, nothing ever is in long range weather and we could freeze in November and still torch, but that cooler set up going into winter helps more often than it hurts. I assume it gives our source cold region more snowpack building time. We need a good snowpack over Southern Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota as early as possible. Some of our extreme warmth winters had those areas snow free until well into December.

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13 hours ago, John1122 said:

It would be very nice to get that cooler November. Even 1 degree below normal seems to make a pretty big difference in how winter plays out. It's not a guaranteed analog, nothing ever is in long range weather and we could freeze in November and still torch, but that cooler set up going into winter helps more often than it hurts. I assume it gives our source cold region more snowpack building time. We need a good snowpack over Southern Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota as early as possible. Some of our extreme warmth winters had those areas snow free until well into December.

Yeah, I drove into work thinking about this. Fingers crossed Michael is 2018's version of Opal. While I'll have to do some research to see how Opal impacted the pattern, all I know is the months after Opal (i.e. November 1995-March 1996) went a longgg way in getting me hooked on weather. :lol:

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Ran some #'s this morning. BNA at +13.0° for the month as of 10/12 (+8.4° from the warmest October on record, 1919). Projecting out for the rest of the month, there's a real chance we finish the month somewhere between +3.0°-4.0° going -3.0°-4.0° the rest of the way. Really puts the pattern change in perspective.

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11 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Ran some #'s this morning. BNA at +13.0° for the month as of 10/12 (+8.4° from the warmest October on record, 1919). Projecting out for the rest of the month, there's a real chance we finish the month somewhere between +3.0°-4.0° going -3.0°-4.0° the rest of the way. Really puts the pattern change in perspective.

Good stuff, Flash!

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Pretty strong signal on both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS for BN temps in the mid to long range.  I will be interested to see if this lasts into November.  As of this AM, a cooler SE looks to be a stable look on those two models. 

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22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty strong signal on both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS for BN temps in the mid to long range.  I will be interested to see if this lasts into November.  As of this AM, a cooler SE looks to be a stable look on those two models. 

Yeah, I like how those BN temps retrograde, beat down the ridge, and open the door for blocking in the D10-14 range. Positive signs heading into November, but we'll see if they hold. 

Interesting to note how the latter image kinda falls in line with CPC's DJF temp anomaly forecast...

gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_54.png

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