janetjanet998 Posted September 2, 2018 Author Share Posted September 2, 2018 new DVN long term HE LONG RANGE OFFERS LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM THIS EXCEPTIONALLY WET PATTERN. THAT DAY IS TUESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE A BIT FARTHER WEST, HELPING PUSH THE FOCUS FARTHER WEST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. BEYOND THE DETAILS THIS IS WHAT IS IMPORTANT. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST EVERY 24 HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE SAME DIURNAL INCREASE AND DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ALLOWING OUR AREA TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THE DURATION OF THIS AIR MASS IS QUITE CONCERNING. CERTAINLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING. THE MOST CONCERNING POTENTIAL I SEE IN THE EXTENDED, AS IT WOULD SUGGEST A FAR MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH CONFIDENCE HEAVY RAIN EVENT, IS THE POSSIBLE PRE RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PRE, OR PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT, IS WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL FEATURES MOISTURE PLUME AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL HIGH, WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE CURRENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN. RAINFALL IN THE WEEK AHEAD COULD ADD UP TO OVER 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. STILL, MESOCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE STORM INITIATION EACH DAY, AND THOSE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. THAT UNFORTUNATELY IS BEYOND THE ABILITY TO BE FORECAST BEYOND A DAY, AND WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE FORECAST IN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA THAN IS WILL VERIFY UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY, THE PRE EVENT COULD OFFER A LESS CONVECTIVE, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Considering the past several days of precip, some areas of IA/WI are already above 150% of normal for a 30-day time period (Aug 3- Sep 2). That generally gives indicators of where creeks and rivers are above normal or currently flooding. Some sections of Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas are in D1 - D4 drought, but many of those drought designations will change with the current and future heavy rains. Some areas of Michigan are in D0 - D2 drought. Maybe a few positive changes in Michigan are coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoNWburbs Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 HRRR has been trending south for the last few runs with tonight’s activity, with the latest run targeting the northern tier of counties in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 2, 2018 Author Share Posted September 2, 2018 WPC still has 5-7 inches 7 day totals over IA area...hints of SE push and pattern change days 6-7 A little out of our sub forum but same event MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0746 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 501 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 022055Z - 030255Z SUMMARY...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AND 03Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NE, SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z, SOME OF WHICH WILL OVERLAP WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION POSING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...2030Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A SURFACE TROUGH, ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST MO. RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS, INCREASING IN COVERAGE OUT AHEAD OF A STRUNG OUT LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS KS INTO MO AND SOUTHERN IA WITH ERODING CIN CONFIRMED BY THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS. EAST OF 100W, GPS SITES AND THE 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS KS/NE/IA/MO. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AS SUBTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OCCURS. THE RAP HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH A FORECAST 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO LIE FROM NORTHWEST IA TO LAKE SUPERIOR, PLACING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND ADDED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL KS/NE BETWEEN 00-03Z. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, 850 MB WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS KS BEYOND 00Z WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE LFC SUPPORTING TRAINING/REPEATING OF CELLS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 03Z IS EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SUPPORTING FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 2, 2018 Author Share Posted September 2, 2018 ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0747...CORRECTED NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 601 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018 CORRECTED FOR NEEDED RECREATION OF MPD GRAPHIC AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 022138Z - 030325Z SUMMARY...TRAINING AND REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL THROUGH 03Z. 2-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 21Z SHOWED TWO MCVS OVER IA, ONE ALONG THE WESTERN IA/MO BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER, BOTH MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. EACH MCV WAS CONNECTED TO CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DUAL-POL ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITHIN THE HEAVIER CORES. TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO MCVS OVER CENTRAL IA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z DEPICTED A SIZABLE AREA OF 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE JUST SOUTH OF THESE MCVS. WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER IA AND WI, THE IDEA OF FUTURE EVOLUTION IS HINTED AT IN ITS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT. BOTH MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE 25-30 KT 850 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERRUNS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. GIVEN THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND IS ROUGHLY 20-30 KT (A ROUGH PROXY FOR STORM MOTIONS), SOME TRAINING/REPEATING OF HEAVY RAIN CORES IE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS THROUGH 03Z AS FORECAST BY THE RAP. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW OVER THE REGION (1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS) HELPING SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH 2-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Looks like there's a good chance for a named system eventually (would be Gordon). Of course where it goes and the timing after landfall remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 From the National Weather Service in Cleveland in their Area Forecast Discussion this evening... The frontal boundary may slow down or try to stall somewhere in the region by the end of the week. We will have to watch closely what is going on down near Florida currently with a potential tropical system developing. Models show this area of tropical moisture and system coming around the ridge of high pressure into the Midwest and Great Lakes Region by Friday and Saturday. If that is the case and we have a stalled out front in the region, we will potentially have a very wet and stormy weather pattern. It is way to early to get specific but definitely something to be weather aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 0Z Nam aggressive with the front cleaning IA by Weds evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 00z GEM... oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 One thing I am noticing on the models with the tropical remnant is a tendency for some baroclinic enhancement as it moves toward the Lakes... so not only is there potential for significant rain, but maybe a deepening surface low too. 00z Euro that just came in depicts that nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 the mesoscale chaos throws a monkey wrench into smaller river forecast but its easier to focus on the main stems.. The Missouri river above Kansas city is already in flood(tempered by the low volume Kansas river(so far) from MCI downstream) also IMO the Mississippi river above STL could have issues (tempered by rather low inflow from the MO river(so far) from STL downstream) HYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018 MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES OR REMAINS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ON MANY TRIBUTARY RIVERS, WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECASTED ON THE SOUTHERN MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, RIVER LEVELS AND FORECASTS COULD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER IN THE NEXT 5-7+ DAYS AS WE ADD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT YIELDED ANOTHER ROUND OF 1 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS, HOWEVER THESE OCCURRED IN FAIRLY NARROW SWATHS LARGELY JUST CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVER BASINS MOST NOTABLY THE PECATONICA. HAVING LARGELY SPARED THE TRIBS WITH THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED OR COMING IN A BIT LOWER, AND SEEING A FEW SITES (KALONA, SIGOURNEY AND DEWITT) CREST OR RECEDE WITH LOWER LEVELS AS RUNOFF ABATES. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SECONDARY RISES AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ROUTED FLOW AND/OR ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL. AS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN RATHER MORE SWATHS OR NARROW CORRIDORS OF 1-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. THUS, A GOOD CHANCE THIS RAIN WON'T HAVE A LOT OF IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS UNLESS IT OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER A BASIN IN WHICH CASE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AND RAPID RISES AND HIGHER STAGES. ENCOURAGING DRIER SIGNAL IS PRESENT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOIST CONVEYOR WILL REFOCUS THE MORE ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CONCERN BEYOND IS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TAKING AIM YET AGAIN ON THE REGION OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY AND POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL REMNANTS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR THEN WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT AN INCREASED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 I'm hoping Gordon's remnants can get up to Iowa. We obviously don't need the rain, but it's a rare occurrence for this area. They almost always veer east before reaching Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I'm hoping Gordon's remnants can get up to Iowa. We obviously don't need the rain, but it's a rare occurrence for this area. They almost always veer east before reaching Iowa. he seems to be getting his act together rather fast not sure if a stronger system would mean a more east track? seems to be on the east side of the thin cone now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I'm hoping Gordon's remnants can get up to Iowa. We obviously don't need the rain, but it's a rare occurrence for this area. They almost always veer east before reaching Iowa. You are correct about the tendency to curve east. Here's a map from LOT showing systems that have passed in/near the cwa... it's pretty well up to date as you can see Alberto on there from earlier this year. That being said, sometimes a remnant low pressure area persisted beyond what this map shows (an example would be Alicia 1983, which tracked into Iowa but is not pictured) so the actual occurrence of systems tracking into Iowa is a little underdone here, but it's pretty rare any way you cut it. Of course this is just the track of the surface low, and a system could track somewhat east of Iowa and still bring rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 12z Euro is pound town. The Gordon remnant brings quite a bit of rain too with continued suggestion of reinvigoration as it moves toward the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 latest DVN Hydro.. HYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018 SINCE 6 AM TODAY, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THUS FAR IS EITHER NEAR AND WEST OF WATERLOO, AND OVER OUR ILLINOIS COUNTIES. STORMS ARE SMALL IN SIZE, QUICK MOVING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, AND ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES. THIS CONTINUES TO OFFER A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE RAIN WHICH FELL IN NARROW SWATHS OVERNIGHT, FELL IN WIDE SWATHS THIS MORNING, AND NARROW AFTERNOON SWATHS IS ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE OR LESS INCREASED THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RIVER FLOODING. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS NOW EXPECTED ON MOST TRIBUTARIES IN IOWA AND ON THE ROCK AND PECATONICA IN ILLINOIS. ON THE LOWER STRETCHES OF THE IOWA, SKUNK, WAPSI, AND ROCK, SIGNIFICANT MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST, AND IN SOME CASES, LEVELS JUST UNDER MAJOR. THESE ARE IN PARTICULAR NEED OF CLOSE MONITORING, AS THEY COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED MAJOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD, MAINLY IF WE GET HEAVY RAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE CRESTS. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AT NEW BOSTON, KEITHSBURG, GLADSTONE LD/18, AND BURLINGTON. GREGORY LANDING HAS MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST REMAINS WET FOR WELL INTO THE EXTENDED, EVEN AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS, THERE IS WATER YET TO FALL THAT IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THESE FORECASTS. THEREFORE, CHANGE IN CREST AND TIMING ARE LIKELY IN THE WEEK AHEAD. ERVIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 after this evening activity...it looks like round 4 is setting up over NE into MN and WI you can tell the flow is pushing west by the new cells in Kansas moving NNW WPC still has 5 inch amounts beat focused a little more S into MO and IL 18z NAM continues with the push of the cold front through IA weds-thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: after this evening activity...it looks like round 4 is setting up over NE into MN and WI you can tell the flow is pushing west by the new cells in Kansas moving NNW WPC still has 5 inch amounts beat focused a little more S into MO and IL 18z NAM continues with the push of the cold front through IA weds-thursday.... Yeah, the trend has been to sag the mid to late-week heavy rain south, with less heavy stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Fyi, the severe posts were moved to the severe thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 There's water inside of O'Hare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Just with the rain today and yesterday we are up to 1.40" on the month with much much more coming this week and into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Tonight's GFS shifted south again with Gordon's remnants and the Canadian shifted well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Tonight's GFS shifted south again with Gordon's remnants and the Canadian shifted well south. It's not easy for a system that landfalls as far east as this one to bring rain to your area. We saw that type of solution on multiple runs though... whether this is a blip or the start of a trend is tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 4, 2018 Author Share Posted September 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Tonight's GFS shifted south again with Gordon's remnants and the Canadian shifted well south. even after it passes it still remains rather active.... ...but check out the pattern again around day 10 LOL.... ring of fire again sets up..actually west of here.... This might be a very long thread if that ridge stays in place out east this month and what looks be tropical systems moving around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Picked up 1.23" of rain last night and today. About a half inch of that fell in about 6-7 minutes last night as a very heavy cell went through. You can definitely see how some areas have picked up excessive amounts after seeing rainfall rates like that. One of the cells that went over today (which eventually went on to drop the birdfart nader near Rockford) exhibited supercell characteristics as it passed just to the northwest. Regarding Gordon's remnants later this week I've been pretty much expecting models to start shifting southeast with the track of it, as it's very unusual to see remnants this far northwest. Looks like the trends have already started. Although with as weird as this year's weather has been it still wouldn't be all too surprising to see such a northwest track like the Euro and GEM had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 00z Euro still has a more northerly track of Gordon. It actually looks like it ends up a little north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 4, 2018 Author Share Posted September 4, 2018 Waterloo IA 7.08 inches so far in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 4, 2018 Author Share Posted September 4, 2018 Gordon: NAM north..dumps on central and northern IL..and SE IA ..I-80 area hit GFS trended south with central IL to IND I-72 area hit CMC further south still with the low..but has some decent rains more NW with the front but all 3 have the heaviest rains falling mostly south of hard hit central IA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 The upper midwest/great lakes ridging keeps strengthening on the models and is squashing the tropical remants... disappointing. It appears whatever we can get from Wednesday's frontal passage may be it for the week.... a major change from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 NHC track is still fairly far north We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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