• Member Statistics

    16,737
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WX Fan
    Newest Member
    WX Fan
    Joined
jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Good chance this is on the ground moving towards Clarksville

94e5f4593f1e35044b56b1ea1d3e5091.png


.

That was a confirmed EF-1,this was the 10th tornado in Tn this year,we avg around 26 per  year

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/28/2021 at 2:31 PM, Windspeed said:

 

Seems to be the whole question is going to be what kind of wind shear and how strong of an inversion will be at times.No problem with instability Monday into Tuesday

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That mini-sup Wednesday. Something about slight risks, with stationary fronts, in northern Middle Tenn. Fortunately this one did not get out of hand!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chance for some strong storms tomorrow.

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Consensus blended model forecast used through Monday afternoon.
Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping dealing with continued
area of showers streaming northwest to southeast across western
and southwestern portions of mid state region, This area is
expected to shift southeastward as late afternoon hours progress
and eventually move out of mid state region before the evening
hours begin.

Otherwise, not much overall change from previous forecast
reasoning. The surface front that is hanging around mid state
region will push northward as a warm front into Kentucky
overnight. This will cause the mid state to experience much
warmer and humid conditions on Sunday. From afternoon through
evening hours on Sunday some strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible with strong to damaging winds the main concern.
Best chance for strongest convection will be for locations
approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state
approaching TN/AL Border region. During this time period also,
strong surface pressure gradient influences could cause winds to
gust to 25 to 35 MPH at times. Taking a closer look, by the
afternoon hours on Sunday, mid state will begin to see some
surface instability (>1000 J/kg) accompanied with decent shear
and rather strong lapse rates. Instability does still appear to
be a limiting factor, but it does look like mid state region will
experience just enough instability to support development of some
strong to severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, damaging
winds will be the primary concern, but large hail, and with model
sounding PWAT`S approaching at or around 1.5 inches, heavy
downpours causing localized flooding, especially across locations
approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state
region approaching TN/AL border could occur too. Isolated tornado
formation certainly can not be ruled out either.

CIPS Model Guida (2).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The debris signature looked very significant on that storm, I wonder is some of it was radar noise due to the proximity to the radar site. If not, it make have produced a fairly substantial tornado. 

 

Edit; there's now confirmed damage coming out of that area 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

tornado reported about 9 miles north of KNQA Memphis radar-- looks like the rotational signature might be weakening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sounds like they didn't issue a warning until several minutes AFTER the TDS

 

and again using confusing wording like usual (never says CAPABLE of producing a tornado when radar indicated only)

but this time it just happened to be producing when they issued the default warning wording

     
* AT 511 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNFORD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF  
  MILLINGTON, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

sounds like they didn't issue a warning until several minutes AFTER the TDS

 

and again using confusing wording like usual (never says CAPABLE of producing a tornado when radar indicated only)

but this time it just happened to be producing when they issued the default warning wording

     
* AT 511 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNFORD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF  
  MILLINGTON, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

 

Not to derail the discussion, but it's not a new issue with them. Anyways, looks like it was a brief, but intense, spin up. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Embedded rotation near Abbeville, which was hit by a tornado recently 

 

Edit;  TW now. 

Screenshot_20210509-193339.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged.

Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town.

Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. 

Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged.
Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town.
Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. 
Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

The radar was acting weird on that cell. It went from signs of a hook on base to a nice tight debris ball a scan or two later. The warning “update” like 5 minutes after the warning was issued said it was confirmed by radar and a ground spotter. I think it caught them off guard.


.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slight Risk in the Mid South includes 5% tornado. MCV magic season. However I figure any tornadoes would be brief and perhaps low contrast. Leading edge of MCS.

Much of the 5% is also in moderate to high flood risk from WPC. Northern part is in just awful terrain where the Tennessee River curves north back into the state, and into tree-filled hills.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mississippi has been pummeled two days straight. Some areas have 10+ inches of rainfall and Flash Flood Emergencies posted this morning. I think MEG (Memphis NWS WFO) posted some observed rainfall charts. 

Meanwhile an MCV is in Alabama this Noon hour Thursday. Mostly cloudy ahead of it should keep things stable. Suppose I agree with SPC. General. Snooze. When's the next hurricane?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.