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RIC Airport

Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

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At this point I don't think we need to look at the models...  Still could be on the higher /lower end of the 1-3 prediction in most of the area..

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3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

At this point I don't think we need to look at the models... 

Yes. I was responding to wasnow215's question. My point was how the short-range HRRR was now notably lower.

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Yes I know.. Just saying, it's so disorginized in this area right now, that some places could be getting barely anything....while just a few mins away could be making out allot differently...prob best to just look at the radar hallucinations/ water vapor loop & get real time updates from other users at this point. :)

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1 hour ago, dswx said:

8z HRRR Kuchera (posted) has 1 inch for RIC. 6z NAM Kuchera has 3.5 (not posted) while IBM's Deep Thunder model has 3.9 (can't post; Deep Thunder is not Kuchera).

Capture.JPG

It’s ok -but we were talking about Euro yesterday and I posted “snow depth”. I was asking what Euro Kuchera was showing for snow totals at 12z specifically. IMO HRRR is NOT a reliable model outside of four hours btw. 

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28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It’s ok -but we were talking about Euro yesterday and I posted “snow depth”. I was asking what Euro Kuchera was showing for snow totals at 12z specifically. IMO HRRR is NOT a reliable model outside of four hours btw. 

Yep.  I did not see your post until this morning so did not post the 12z Euro.

HRRR is actually good beyond 4 hours. More so in warm season for t-storms.

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yeah starting to fill in nicely in the area.. prob will just miss out on the real extended period of steady/ heavy snow... Sleet mixing in prob will make roads worse since it looks like almost all the roads have not been  treated... (be careful on the bridges and overpasses)..

Main roads mainly just wet at the moment..(but again since not treated could cover up quickly in places)

 

Id say in about an hour (9:30 or so) we should get a nice hit from the precip working up this way up from SW VA/NC if it all holds together.. looks like a good batch of steady/mod snow...

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2 minutes ago, dswx said:

Yep.  I did not see your post until this morning so did not post the 12z Euro.

HRRR is actually good beyond 4 hours. More so in warm season for t-storms.

Yes I like it for severe you’re correct.

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Here’s my point about the HRRR at least with snow outside of four hours. Here is HRRR 7z five hours out for surface precip.

44ABB1C6-3053-4473-85D3-1D922D3F58E5.png

And here is same hour (hour one for this shot) on 11z

1CF13EB0-E134-487E-B276-85D7AB6314F7.png

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Drizzle in Norfolk as well. 37 degrees according to the closest PWS, I don't really see any accumulation here unless heavier precip somehow continues after dark. Upper level low doesn't look as consolidated as models depicted..not sure is that just subjective. 
 

Onto Saturday night/Sun night possible event. Timing should be during the night, and I like a 1040+ HP in Quebec. If this stripe shifts 50 mi north, everyone in this thread will cash in. 

gfs_asnow24_seus_14.thumb.png.d10c6e308b2fcc0c91f16d5a89f6bf3e.png

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38 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

An inch here now. 31°- continued ligot to moderate snow.

Very nice moderate snow coming down in downtown Richmond now.

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Drizzle in Norfolk as well. 37 degrees according to the closest PWS, I don't really see any accumulation here unless heavier precip somehow continues after dark. Upper level low doesn't look as consolidated as models depicted..not sure is that just subjective. 
 
Onto Saturday night/Sun night possible event. Timing should be during the night, and I like a 1040+ HP in Quebec. If this stripe shifts 50 mi north, everyone in this thread will cash in. 
gfs_asnow24_seus_14.thumb.png.d10c6e308b2fcc0c91f16d5a89f6bf3e.png
Is that another ULL moving through?

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1 hour ago, tramadoc said:

Is that another ULL moving through?

Doesn't look like one on the h5 chart. Looks like a classic shortwave embedded in the trough.

NAM looks pretty damn good for our area at 84. Let's just leave it at that.

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2.5" total....  Precip starting to wane it seems.     No AKQ radar sucks.   But ne radar looks pretty meh for the remainder of the area for now.   

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looks like its pretty much over here in the Richmond Area.. closer to the coast tho may not be done just yet as the storm wraps around...  

Still could get a few scattered burst down this way but I would count much on it at this point with the temps now over 32... 

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It just started mixing an hour ago in Virginia Beach. It flips to just snow during heavier rates, but precip is rather weak most of the time. 37 degrees

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34 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Officially 2" at the airport bringing the season total to 12.4".

Above seasonal avg. We’ve had some nice  events.

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40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Above seasonal avg. We’ve had some nice  events.

Eh, nothing over 6" for MOST people outside of Tidewater. 2-4" events get old....can definitely be better. But, no complaints I guess... even if you nickle and dime your way to seasonal average. 

A good season at RIC is one in excess of 20". We are due.

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