dswx

Oh I am definite. " All I’m suggesting is that it may be time to realign geographiry to fit in better with the WAA issues AKQ deals with." Those were not what your words suggested at all. You said "LWX is consistently better". What part of the current Winter Storm Watch issued for Lousia, Goochland, etc. at 3:28 pm today is too complicated to comprehend with the event more than 24 hours away? And btw, perhaps LWX might want to realign their geography to fit in better with what AKQ deals with. The idea that LWX is consistently better is nothing but trash. I'm out of here precisely due to this sort of uninformed, cheap shot NWS office bashing since it is not the first time. That is not the same as discussing the synoptic pattern or models. And I speak as a professional (non-NWS) met. So long.

No, this sort of "LWX is consistently better" is absolutely pure crap. We've gone over this before and just like in December. For the second time, it is a completely different geography and neither LWX or RNK have to deal with warm air advection issues like AKQ does. Especially in complicated, classic rain/snow/ice patterns like this one. And I have known the AKQ people for a long time. If someone at LWX does not understand the difference between their CWA and AKQ's they really should not be working in the NWS at all as they have no clue at all about basic regional forecasting issues.

Cheap shot. Considering that they are not even being paid, their last briefing an hour or so ago was spot on.

The operational run has ~4 inches for the Richmond area at 10:1 ratio through 12z Monday. The ensemble mean is about the same.

Summary of 12z model RIC snowfall amounts, using Kuchera Ratio (accounts for varying snow to rain ratio): NAM ~4 inches GFS ~2 GFS-FV3 ~1 Canadian ~7 Other models: ICON (German Model/adjusts for snow to rain ratio) ~3 RPM ~3 through 15z Sunday, 10:1 ratio IBM Deep Thunder ~2 through 12z Sunday, 10:1 ratio Euro ~5 (6 just west of metro) through 12z Monday, 10:1 ratio

I truly wish more mets would present snowfall probabilities for each range like Freiden did this morning and Zach Daniel did last evening so people can hear/see what the chances are for various amounts and that it is not locked in at say 4-6 inches. That is how it should be presented. People hear just "4-6" without any caveats and run with it. Then when 2 or 8 occurs they yell "busted forecast!". smh

It is 10:1 so it includes sleet/ice. Can't post the map.

The new 6z Euro (not public; got it from a vendor) has ~4 inches on the mean ensemble for Richmond area at 10:1 ratio and ~3 inches on the operational at 10:1 (the later only goes out to 00z Monday). The operational 6z Euro goes out 90 hours and its ensemble out to 144 hours.

As of 8:30 pm, 13 inches, Bellevue neighborhood, Richmond.

It does. A lot is still falling as of 6:45 pm but also remember that that is the 18z/1 pm EST run. So just looking at the model output, a lot would have fallen just between 1 pm and now (almost 00z) that is included in that. Plus that is using a 10:1 snow to rain ratio which is somewhat high as the warm air tries to move in from the south. So the amount would be probably closer to around 6 inches starting at 1 pm. Hope that makes some sense. Others can chime in and maybe word it better!

That looks good. I was at 11 inches at the same time on the Northside with snow still falling obviously at both RIC and my house.

You are comparing apples and oranges. Why? Because neither LWX or Blacksburg have to deal with warm air advection aloft and potential sleet issues. And not just today. Almost always.

Stop the cheap NWS bashing, Seriously. They are professionals. They are not "disconnected" in the least.

11 inches in Bellevue as of 5:35pm. 2 inches in the past hour.

The only model that had double-digit amounts for Richmond was the NAM. It had 10-12 inches (Kuchera) for several runs.