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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2018-2019 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Hope JoMo is doing ok, I have not seen him post in a while.

He's probably burned out on this another crap faced winter.   I'm about done.   I'm starting to think it may never snow more than 3" here again.   Climate has changed on us.  Too many winters in a row now for it to be called an anomaly,  this is the new norm.

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2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

He's probably burned out on this another crap faced winter.   I'm about done.   I'm starting to think it may never snow more than 3" here again.   Climate has changed on us.  Too many winters in a row now for it to be called an anomaly,  this is the new norm.

I know it’s easy to feel that way, but look at Kansas City, they were in the same boat as us and then this year has finally broke their curse. It’ll happen but this won’t last forever.

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

I know it’s easy to feel that way, but look at Kansas City, they were in the same boat as us and then this year has finally broke their curse. It’ll happen but this won’t last forever.

Yea man our friends in KC have been doing good with snow this season! They got 5-7" the other day and more tonight and more on the way this upcoming week. Im jelous lol

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4 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

He's probably burned out on this another crap faced winter.   I'm about done.   I'm starting to think it may never snow more than 3" here again.   Climate has changed on us.  Too many winters in a row now for it to be called an anomaly,  this is the new norm.

I know, after what 4 or 5 seasons now it's just sad. Global warming man, I really do feel its a serious issue. Its ashame though we have had tons of moisture just no real cold air or good storm tracks. Hopefully one of these years we do really good ya know. I still think we might move back to KC in the future for sure, time will tell.

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I am so tired of the just too shallow cold around here. I am ready to move onto spring.........

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently moving through southeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas early this morning. Areas of freezing drizzle
will start to tapper off over the next couple hours, but still
some slick spots on area roads, especially northwest of Tulsa.
Skies are expected to clear from northwest to southeast this
morning with mostly sunny skies this afternoon.

Cold conditions will continue tonight into Monday morning as surface
high pressure builds into the region. Complicated forecast expected
on Tuesday, with multiple precip types possible, as upper level
storm system moves into the four corners region. Areas of rain/
freezing rain/sleet are expected to spread north Tuesday morning
given strong lift in association with right rear quad of upper
jet. Temperatures will likely hold or fall to around freezing as
precip develops through the day. Best chance for rain/freezing
rain to transition to snow will likely be in areas north and west
of Tulsa, however point soundings indicate saturation may not
occur in favored dendritic growth zone. Any winter weather threat
will end Tuesday night as upper jet streak lifts northeast.

Still some differences concerning evolution of upper wave moving
out the Baja region Wednesday into Thursday. GFS is more aggressive
with wave, with another round of overrunning precip during the
day Thursday. ECMWF keeps heavier rain well east of the area during
this time, with significant warmup into Friday. Better rain chances
are expected by Saturday as main upper low approaches. Given uncertainties
in the exact track, will continue with chance pops through the remainder
of the extended periods.
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Because I’m a masochist, here is the seasonal snowfall total as of today. I took the liberty of crudely editing it on my phone to erase any amounts of less than 2 inches of snow and added a black border. Really shows that snow hole.

I marked OKC, Tulsa and Fayetteville with green dots.

 

C199D6FA-7CE2-46EC-B492-887CDE3DDCD2.jpeg

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2 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Because I’m a masochist, here is the seasonal snowfall total as of today. I took the liberty of crudely editing it on my phone to erase any amounts of less than 2 inches of snow and added a black border. Really shows that snow hole.

I marked OKC, Tulsa and Fayetteville with green dots.

 

C199D6FA-7CE2-46EC-B492-887CDE3DDCD2.jpeg

I would be interested to see that same map for the last 4 winter seasons, a total of those 4 winter seasons. It would probably look about the same, at least around here. 

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I knew it was bad for Tulsa, but good grief at those maps. Eventually you would think the pendulum has to swing back in our favor.

 

Mike Collier just posted on Facebook: "Rain/Snow mix Tuesday. #ThisWinterStinks

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Awesome maps but also very disgusting and depressing lol, something has to give sooner or later...maybe haha? Looks like a slop bag mix for this week, will probly just be another 34 degree cold rain...dibs anyone lol?

On a side note my mom(in southern new jersey) said they have been in a snow drought this winter season there also which is not usually the case.

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Last ones I promise!!

These two are from 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Fun fact, I moved to Tulsa I’m the spring of 2015, so all I’ve known since I’ve moved here is a snowless land...

 

 

9E925634-348D-4507-B504-309D54664DDE.jpeg

E8C516EF-AF43-4E76-80DE-780330B77813.jpeg

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The latest gfs bringing the heat on snow/sleet just south of Tulsa. The heavier precipitation is in eastern OK/western AR, if the cold air is stubborn enough and doesn’t recede(as these shallow systems tend to be resistant to the warm air winning out like the models depict) then I think there’s a real possibility of a small swath of moderate snow or sleet combo in said area. I’m concerned on how much of this falls as sleet. I need to check the soundings. 

Several years ago when I lived in Dallas(Denton to be exact) we got FIVE inches of sleet....it shut the city down for about 4 days straight because the sheer amount of ice on the roadways was insane. They called it the cobblestone ice event. When cars would travel on the thick sleet that first day, it carved out inconsistent tracks in the road, and then it refroze each night to this extremely pot hole, bumpy, slick, HARD sheet of ice that made driving literally impossible. Crazy times.

 

All that to say, is half an inch of sleet is enough to turn the roads into an ice skating rink, so I’m curious to see if that’s going to pose a threat in this or not.

90BE7344-5745-4A84-9FBA-9F3E2281D99D.png

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8 hours ago, StormChazer said:

The latest gfs bringing the heat on snow/sleet just south of Tulsa. The heavier precipitation is in eastern OK/western AR, if the cold air is stubborn enough and doesn’t recede(as these shallow systems tend to be resistant to the warm air winning out like the models depict) then I think there’s a real possibility of a small swath of moderate snow or sleet combo in said area. I’m concerned on how much of this falls as sleet. I need to check the soundings. 

Several years ago when I lived in Dallas(Denton to be exact) we got FIVE inches of sleet....it shut the city down for about 4 days straight because the sheer amount of ice on the roadways was insane. They called it the cobblestone ice event. When cars would travel on the thick sleet that first day, it carved out inconsistent tracks in the road, and then it refroze each night to this extremely pot hole, bumpy, slick, HARD sheet of ice that made driving literally impossible. Crazy times.

 

All that to say, is half an inch of sleet is enough to turn the roads into an ice skating rink, so I’m curious to see if that’s going to pose a threat in this or not.

 

Tulsa NWS seems like its going with the GF/v3 on QPF and they seem to like more sleet than snow.

NAM/3K/Euro show lower QPF but, Euro shows more snow. I'm thinking the Euro snow amounts include sleet and don't have the right ratios even with the lower QPF.

Anyone who thinks forecasting is easy should look at this NWS map, LOL.

image.png.20ea72c5a4a6056c5dc82f283cb5f67b.png

 

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1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

Tulsa NWS seems like its going with the GF/v3 on QPF and they seem to like more sleet than snow.

NAM/3K/Euro show lower QPF but, Euro shows more snow. I'm thinking the Euro snow amounts include sleet and don't have the right ratios even with the lower QPF.

Anyone who thinks forecasting is easy should look at this NWS map, LOL.

image.png.20ea72c5a4a6056c5dc82f283cb5f67b.png

 

When I saw that map I just laughed...what a cluster....lol.

Like I said earlier, 1/2 inch of sleet is more than enough to turn the roads into havoc; I'm especially worried about the evening rush hour in the Tulsa metro.

 

Here is the 06Z GFS, still aligning with last night's 0Z GFS and then here is the 12Z NAM. Definitely some agreement in these two

 

 

gfs_asnow_scus_14.png

namconus_asnow_scus_17.png

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

When I saw that map I just laughed...what a cluster....lol.

Like I said earlier, 1/2 inch of sleet is more than enough to turn the roads into havoc; I'm especially worried about the evening rush hour in the Tulsa metro.

 

Here is the 06Z GFS, still aligning with last night's 0Z GFS and then here is the 12Z NAM. Definitely some agreement in these two

 

 

Not much change on 12z v3 and GFS.

image.thumb.png.6ce9010ab66f7a384ee5a74d12ec5aa7.pngimage.thumb.png.f1b96691c6a394c9c7cf0416cdc2b7dd.pngimage.thumb.png.10082b00eb8e1d9bab092b943a65e5ba.png

image.png

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Beat me to the punch on the GFS!

 

For better or worse, I'm definitely not hearing much about this storm from local news outlets, and we're 24 hours out. I feel like this has the potential to drop 2-3 inches of snow/sleet in the Tulsa metro. But there's a BIG difference between 2 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet.

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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Beat me to the punch on the GFS!

 

For better or worse, I'm definitely not hearing much about this storm from local news outlets, and we're 24 hours out. I feel like this has the potential to drop 2-3 inches of snow/sleet in the Tulsa metro. But there's a BIG difference between 2 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet.

Agreed. It's seems exceptionally quiet being this close to the event.

And, yea, 2-3 inches of snow is no biggie whereas even an inch of sleet would be rough. 2 inches = shutdown T-Town, LOL.

 

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2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Local met Mike Collier in Tulsa not even remotely biting on this thing.

466FD220-460D-478D-88CE-A998EA820FFB.png

Temps concern me as well. All models show it warming above freezing as the event goes on. Are they overdoing the LLJ or under-doing the shallow cold air? I don't know...

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16 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Local met Mike Collier in Tulsa not even remotely biting on this thing.

466FD220-460D-478D-88CE-A998EA820FFB.png

Hard to blame him... we haven't seen a single significant event this winter... you guys have had it even worse. I don't really see a whole lot to get excited over at this point.

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I still think it's going to be a tad of mix right over to a cold rain again, its just been this way with every storm this season. Just about every one has been 33 or 34 degrees and rain but I would rather see that then some nasty ice storm to be honest. It just is what it is, not our winter again and gotta just hope next years season is better.

And there it is, WWA 9am until 6am wed. morning lol. Forecast says primarily rain all day tom. maybe freezing drizzle tom night before it ends on the backside...NEXT. Forecast is a bit all over the place sounding. Will probly see absolutely nothing from this but another cold rain and busted advisory.

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4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

I still think it's going to be a tad of mix right over to a cold rain again, its just been this way with every storm this season. Just about every one has been 33 or 34 degrees and rain but I would rather see that then some nasty ice storm to be honest. It just is what it is, not our winter again and gotta just hope next years season is better.

And there it is, WWA 9am until 6am wed. morning lol. Forecast says primarily rain all day tom. maybe freezing drizzle tom night before it ends on the backside...NEXT. Forecast is a bit all over the place sounding. Will probly see absolutely nothing from this but another cold rain and busted advisory.

Haha you got it man.   This is a slop crap system like the others.   Can't argue against trends.  Winter threat is empty again.   We're done. 

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