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WxChallenge 2017-2018


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1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice forecast didnt see that bump happening.

Thanks. I honestly didn't expect the sea breeze to get there at all, so I thought I was toast when it did. Luckily the west winds were strong enough to push the sea breeze back SE of PVD. 

Went 80/60/13 for day 8. Honestly no clue on the low. 

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After the low getting chilly this morning...I need a high of 80 to finish in first.  If the high doesn't hit 80 I need the winds to hit 13+ knots.  At this point they're running pretty warm, but the sea breeze will get there at some point early to mid-afternoon.  It'll be interesting. 

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On 10/6/2017 at 6:54 AM, OHweather said:

After the low getting chilly this morning...I need a high of 80 to finish in first.  If the high doesn't hit 80 I need the winds to hit 13+ knots.  At this point they're running pretty warm, but the sea breeze will get there at some point early to mid-afternoon.  It'll be interesting. 

Way to crush it!!!

Great start for the UW team--sweeping the cat 2 trophies and 5th overall in the standings. 

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27 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

not sure whats going on at KDCA but the 5 min obs appear to be off between 11:20 - 11:45 am .. weird temp and wind spike 

NWS will probably discard that set of observations in their climo report. Still up to 82 by 12:30 pm, however.

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Tough forecast.  73/66/17/0.30"

Not really confident in anything.  Struggled to see the warmer highs with clouds all day and a fairly brisk E wind north of the warm front, so as long as they get to 73 by 6z I'm not sure they get back above it.  Low I just sort of averaged guidance at 6z tomorrow night.  Wasn't impressed with the rain potential as the better lift is farther north, but it'll be convective in a high PWAT environment so if a cell does hit the airport they'll quickly get a good amount.  Tried to hedge so I don't get completely burned either way if they end up on the low end or if they get a good amount.  Wind sort of just guessed but the low level flow looks strong enough...just not sure if there will be any mixing of that down to the surface. 

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It will be interesting to see HRRR shows a nice blob of rain coming in at 02z-06z and continuing into the next day radar rather unimpressive as of yet. Gonna be a close one for those who called for rain. Nice forcing aloft strongest in PA but with Cape to the west and a nice dynamic front trying to set up and even the possibility of them getting close to triple point region.

Oh so close

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Im glad im not in this year because this would more than annoy me

KDCA 121552Z 09013G20KT 4SM -DZ OVC012 18/14 A3026 RMK AO2 DZB35 SLP245 T01780144 PNO $

 

Been happening since early morning about from when that rain started which I have doubts on those totals of .11" because many around have at least a quarter inch but hey that will be for them to decide when they figure it out.

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63/45/12

Things were ideal for a nice cooling below 45, but MOS/USL combo is doing pretty decent with DCA and it was showing between 45 to 48 so I went on the low side of that. Also noticed models are running a tad too warm for DCA recently so I played it safe with 63 instead of going warmer.

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