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WxChallenge 2017-2018


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74/50/13

Probably a little too aggressive on the wind but with a stronger gradient than today decided to take the gamble. Temp-wise, looked somewhat warmer than today even though NAM BUFKIT showed a bit more of an inversion tomorrow afternoon. Used 935 mb as a comparison and it looked like they'd be about 1.5-2C warmer tomorrow. Wasn't too confident about the low. It seems there'll be fairly potent winds just off the deck so if they're able to mix I could see them struggling to drop much below 55F.

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1 hour ago, wi_fl_wx said:

74/49/13/0

Going down to 47 with the USL was tempting, but if DCA didn't go below guidance last night, it certainly won't tonight. That little patch of clouds was a concern as well. I'll be shocked if the high is anything other than 73 or 74 tomorrow. 

You and I have been on the same page this week. :)

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7 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said:

Yep! It seems to be working out!

Our team is all voting for Quillayute so hopefully that will be the next city. Looks boring everywhere else in the country. 

The high didn't quite work out today. It didn't occur to me that a south wind would give a cooling influence with the Potomac adjacent to them. :( Is that in Washington? I voted for Idaho since I like the mountain west.

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74/55/11/0. The day is clearly torching so far.

19 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said:

Yep! It seems to be working out!

Our team is all voting for Quillayute so hopefully that will be the next city. Looks boring everywhere else in the country. 

I voted Amarillo because I stayed there for couple nights this past May. Plus, I'm not so fond of Washington after doing poorly in Seattle last year.

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67/37/11

Concerned to see some good forecasters with highs in the low 70s. MOS would agree I guess. I can't figure out highs here because BUFKIT is clueless about mixing heights. Guess I should check the GFS instead of the NAM. Also, took a shot on the low in hopes the winds don't pan out. I couldn't see a synoptic reason why they'll have more wind tonight than last night but I don't understand mesoscale crap about this city.

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6 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

I wish this city didn't get voted for. Looks mighty boring, most people right around consensus.

Same here...

First day was a disaster. Had 65/41/7, but yesterday didn't get as warm as it could've been.

Going with 67/42/11, but I'm not feeling confident. 

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67/42/19

Hmm, I didn't see 7-8C warmer...maybe I missed that? I used I think 740 mb as a comparison height and it seemed it would be about 4.5C warmer than today hence the 10F warmer on the high. Of course, if they mix much more deeply (which they very well may) then all bets are off. For the low, hoping the LLJ that is depicted can start cranking soon. Also decided to go high on the winds with that feature present during the day tomorrow.

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14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

67/42/19

Hmm, I didn't see 7-8C warmer...maybe I missed that? I used I think 740 mb as a comparison height and it seemed it would be about 4.5C warmer than today hence the 10F warmer on the high. Of course, if they mix much more deeply (which they very well may) then all bets are off. For the low, hoping the LLJ that is depicted can start cranking soon. Also decided to go high on the winds with that feature present during the day tomorrow.

I used potential temperature in the boundary layer to get that.  I think I went a bit too high but we'll see.  

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Somehow it didn't get to 70, only 69. The 5-min obs seem to get corrected about 10 minutes after the fact. 

69/48/21/0 for tomorrow. Not confident in any of those numbers. The winds looked unimpressive until about 09Z so I think they bottom out early again. Satellite also suggests clearing at least for the first half of the night. Not sure if that strong LLJ is going to mix down tomorrow evening or not. 

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67/55/24

Decided to get risky in all three parameters since Im a bit over consensus so there isn't anything to lose. Went over USL on the high. They seemed to mix out to around 600 mb today and if they could achieve that tomorrow with temps. at that level being 2C cooler it should yield something in the 67-68 range. Of course, if the clouds are as thick as the USL suggests then they will be stuck in the low to mid 60s. I thought the low was interesting. With such a strong jet just off the deck I felt there's a good chance they won't get under 55 tonight but I think they could before 06z tomorrow if the winds die out enough. I underdid the winds a bit today and the profile looked similar if not windier tomorrow hence the aggressive wind forecast.

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