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WxChallenge 2017-2018


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wxwizz Western Connecticut State University


debating on going a little warmer but looked like 925 temps tomorrow were going to be a few degrees cooler than today so I went a little cooler than today's high.  Went a tad aggressive-ish on winds but PVD does seem to get an extra oomph from southerly component winds

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Went 70/49/14 for day 4.  Was pretty uncertain about the wind and the low.  NAM kept things fairly well mixed past midnight local time, but winds were already starting to ramp down at 0z and the pressure gradient is beginning to relax, so I just went with the USL value and went a bit below the stochastic winds.  I rarely see the HRRR verify too cold near water and when there's some wind at night, and it was showing 49-50, so I went a bit cool on the low.  MOS also supported it.  They've been running warm with highs when there isn't marine influence and with a lot of sun, dry ground, deep mixing, went a bit warm again. 

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I as well went well below MOS.  The dews right now are making me nervous but seemed like a prime radiational cooling night and looked like winds should decrease with high pressure building in.  

For tomorrow...the high was 69 today and tomorrow 850's looked a tad warmer...not expecting them to mix all the way to 850 but should mix similar to today and with a tick warmer airmass below 850 added a degree from today's high.  

wind was actually a little tough IMO

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