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Carvers Gap

Fall Obs 2017

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Temperature is 60 degrees in Kingsport w on/off drizzle.  Surreal day for early fall.  Winds are 5-10 which makes it cooler.  Following a slightly BN August...sure makes fall seem further along than it truly is.

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Temperature is 60 degrees in Kingsport w on/off drizzle.  Surreal day for early fall.  Winds are 5-10 which makes it cooler.  Following a slightly BN August...sure makes fall seem further along than it truly is.

Feels like early fall here today,beautiful day 

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Made it up to 63.7 degrees at my home in East Knoxville at 1:45 p.m.  Since then, the temp has been dropping slightly.  I think we may struggle to see the upper 60's.

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Georgia has 500,000+ customers without power. Hopefully that does not get up in here. Atlanta power outages are increasing; however, it is above 1,000 FT. I am hoping being at 500 FT helps Chatty duck the peak winds. Regardless, looks like an interesting night.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

My fake owl fell down. We will rebuild, lol!

I have wrens that have made a nest in the face of our fake owl...supposed to scare away birds.  Just dug a hole write out.  I have pics of baby wrens looking out.  Pretty surreal and smart by the mother wren. :wacko:

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With the fire damage to the Chimneys, wind damage(trees falling) has been an issue along the roadside areas during the past year - much better this go around.  Looks like GSMNP faired very well.  Fortunately Irma appears (eyeball test...nothing exact) to have jogged well south of its inland forecast.  I have not looked at pressure centers, just radar.  Georgia has a ton of folks without power.  Thankfully we did not get worse.  The Florida Keys...man.  

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Getting what I think are some upslope rains today from the opposite from normal directions, SE to the NW. They've basically been redeveloping over Campbell Co for several hours as the flow comes across the valley and then begins to rise in elevation as it gets into this area.

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Wind has been pretty stiff this afternoon.  Here is the special weather statement from MRX...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

TNZ014>018-037>047-070-073-074-VAZ001-005-122200-
Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Jefferson-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Lee-Scott-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville,
Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Maynardville, Rutledge,
Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Dandridge,
Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Jonesville, and Gate City
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
Strong gusty southeast winds can be expected this afternoon across
the area. Many locations will see southeast winds of 15 to 25
mph, with occasional gusts to near 40 mph. Winds this strong may
cause downed tree limbs and power outages. A few weaker trees
may be downed as well. The winds should diminish during the late
afternoon into early evening hours.

$$

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From CNN...

  • Florida: About 15 million people are without power across the state, Christopher Krebs of the Department of Homeland Security said Tuesday. 
  • Georgia: More than 1.3 million customers -- which includes households and businesses -- are in the dark, according to Georgia Power and Georgia EMC. 
  • South Carolina: 161,000 customers lost power, according to Duke Energy and SCE&G.
  • North Carolina: More than 62,000 customers don't have electricity, according to Duke Energy.
  • Alabama: More than 20,000 customers lost electricity, Alabama Power said Tuesday.

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Good morning guys and gals! It's been a LONG time since I've been here! :-)

I guess everyone survived Irma, my parents live right on Sarasota Bay and were only about 75 miles or so from the center when it passed, and they never lost power. Me on the other hand, lost power for 45 hours in my neck of the woods just outside Atlanta. Luckily I have a generator and was able to run the things I needed. The worst part? Half of my neighborhood had power and we have all underground utilities. Just my luck... :-)

Looking forward to winter once again and it would be fine with me if it started right now. :-)

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I drove 441 from Gattlinburg to Cherokee yesterday evening.  This was my first time through since the fires last year.  All I can say is wow!  You could very clearly burn marks are the bottom of the trees in many spots.  You could even tell the direction the fires were moving.  A lot of the trees only had damage on one side of them.  It’s was pretty cool to see and sad to know the damage it caused. The temp also dropped on my “reliable” truck thermometer from 91 in pigeon forge to 64 at newfound gap.  Pretty amazing to go from summer to fall in 30 minutes in close to 4000 feet of elevation rise. 

 

There was some very pretty leaf change color around 3500 feet plus.  Lots and lots of yellows with some reds here and there. 

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The cloudiness/stratocumulus off this shortwave is such a tease. I want rain but there's nothing getting squeezed out of this environment. On the positive side, we should get a little taste of Autumn over night the next three/four days before it goes back to Summer.

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.75-1.0" of rain so far in Kingsport.  The TS is moving out fast.  Thankful for the rain but not nearly enough.  It should reduce the fire risk though for some time and bring out better fall colors.  

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17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
.75-1.0" of rain so far in Kingsport.  The TS is moving out fast.  Thankful for the rain but not nearly enough.  It should reduce the fire risk though for some time and bring out better fall colors.  

 

1-1.2" here in Bristol. Not enough but certainly thankful for it. We still have a nice low-level moisture stream into the eastern Valley which should bring us another inch through the morning. Can't complain about that.

 

I'm noticing areas ENE of here in SW Va./New River Valley may get hit harder. Training SSE feeder off the Piedmont with good orographic lift may produce 3-5" short order tonight.

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Finished with 1.3 inches. Didn't receive as much as I thought we would over night but still not complaining. Nate was good for us.

 

Additonally the airmass is still moist for the next few days. The low pressure out of the upper Mississippi Valley may squeeze out some more showers.

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Picked up 2.4 inches here. Long, steady soaking rain too. Not a ton of run off. We had some downed trees and power outages due to wind as well. My power was off for several hours last night. It was much needed. 

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Got maybe .2 inches this evening. Pretty light stuff and may seem hardly worth posting, but any precip helps right now. The ground is moist and the atmopshere is still juicy. HRRR and 3km NAM try to move some decent cells through KTRI around mid day tomorrow. Hopefully that can squeeze out another half inch, possibly more. Combined with Nate's totals, hoping this will be enough to prevent any fire bans and also get the trees happy for Fall colors.

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