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December 2016 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Here's a look at the HRRR for later.  As with much of the other model output, it shows a little wind for the most part in N IL with some scattered calm conditions.  Could see this being underdone in some of the notorious cold spots and if winds are calm in more areas.

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_010.png

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_013.png

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_016.png

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Too soon to open up an entire discussion yet about this probably, I'll leave that to you guys, but for what it's worth the 18z GFS suggests, for Xmas weekend, a very serious, powerful low and storm through the central to northern plains, burying virtually all of Nebraska and extreme NW KS in 12 inch + snows and then tracks ENE to nail IA, Nrn IL, WI and MI in very deep snows as well. I don't know how to embed such images on this forum yet, but It was a very intense looking run despite it's low likelihood of reality :D

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5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Wow...you're still -9, which is even more impressive since there is some wind and therefore some mixing, keeping temps a bit higher than they could otherwise be. Strange that it's still 5 at ORD, under what I imagine is a similar airmass?? I don't think all of that can be attributed to UHI. I think Chicago metro has had some bad timing so far, as cloud cover held all night, then full sun began right at sunrise. Not that this precludes temps from dropping like a rock beginning late this afternoon...but we'll see. 

Yeah was surprised to see it got that cold.  On the flip side, temps this afternoon overachieved, as we made it back up to -1 around 2pm.  Didn't expect it to recover much above -5. 

Temp starting to fall off quickly now though.  Already back to -5.

 

Cable internet has been off here all day.  Sounds like it could be a widespread issue according to the automated message.  They said it was weather related, so the cold is even taking it's toll on technology apparently lol.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a look at the HRRR for later.  As with much of the other model output, it shows a little wind for the most part in N IL with some scattered calm conditions.  Could see this being underdone in some of the notorious cold spots and if winds are calm in more areas.

 

 

Looks like we got our own personal little high pressure bubble at 06z lol.  Right over town.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty close here I'd say around 6".  Was hoping for more heading into this night but there probably comes a point of diminishing returns anyway as far as how cold it could get.

Yeah no doubt.  Was looking like you guys could really get dumped on there for a bit last night when that plume was riding the shore over Alekville.

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53 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Too soon to open up an entire discussion yet about this probably, I'll leave that to you guys, but for what it's worth the 18z GFS suggests, for Xmas weekend, a very serious, powerful low and storm through the central to northern plains, burying virtually all of Nebraska and extreme NW KS in 12 inch + snows and then tracks ENE to nail IA, Nrn IL, WI and MI in very deep snows as well. I don't know how to embed such images on this forum yet, but It was a very intense looking run despite it's low likelihood of reality :D

I'm not going to buy it right now since it's a week away and things could change.  Remember the past two weekends (counting this weekend)?

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1 hour ago, Natester said:

I'm not going to buy it right now since it's a week away and things could change.  Remember the past two weekends (counting this weekend)?

GFS has been 'advertising" something for the last few days between the 25th and the 28th.  Everything from an App runner, a north streaker straight out of the gulf, a strong southern stream system to a Pacific zonal similar to what we've had. It's occasionally had support from the Canadian and the Ukie, but it has been the most consistent with at least advertising something in that time frame.  The trend seem's to be a storm of some type as we move from the 25th forward.  It would be nice if we could get some southern stream phasing finally for once.  

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50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


ARR has been as cold as -15 on the 5 minute ob site.

 

It seemed like the drop off sort of stalled temporarily in many areas.  But ORD went down 2 degrees in the past hour and there are some ob sites in the LOT cwa showing calm now.

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Down to -11.  Only about 2-3 more hours of falling temps left though.  

Lone Rock WI temps bouncing around like a ping pong ball.  Was down to -17 earlier, then up to -9, and now they're back down at -20.  Must be some very shallow arctic air in the drainage area that station is located in.

 

EDIT:  Nice to have the weather station back uploading to the net.  Internet outage "fixed".  It was this stupid modem the whole time lol.  

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