Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Here's a look at the HRRR for later. As with much of the other model output, it shows a little wind for the most part in N IL with some scattered calm conditions. Could see this being underdone in some of the notorious cold spots and if winds are calm in more areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Temperature has been steadily dropping all day, down to 16F now. Forecast low of 5F tonight and I suspect it could be a bit lower if the winds can stay still. Plenty of fresh snowpack is keeping things chilly at the surface. About a 12" snowpack currently. Backyard looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Temps have held up fairly well here (above 10) so far. The free fall is about to begin in an hour or two though. I'm thinking around -15 imby. Wouldn't be shocked to see an isolated -20 somewhere in northwest Indiana away from the lake over the deeper snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 The 21z HRRR 1 hr prog that was valid at 22z is generally running a little too warm... by 1-2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Too soon to open up an entire discussion yet about this probably, I'll leave that to you guys, but for what it's worth the 18z GFS suggests, for Xmas weekend, a very serious, powerful low and storm through the central to northern plains, burying virtually all of Nebraska and extreme NW KS in 12 inch + snows and then tracks ENE to nail IA, Nrn IL, WI and MI in very deep snows as well. I don't know how to embed such images on this forum yet, but It was a very intense looking run despite it's low likelihood of reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Wow...you're still -9, which is even more impressive since there is some wind and therefore some mixing, keeping temps a bit higher than they could otherwise be. Strange that it's still 5 at ORD, under what I imagine is a similar airmass?? I don't think all of that can be attributed to UHI. I think Chicago metro has had some bad timing so far, as cloud cover held all night, then full sun began right at sunrise. Not that this precludes temps from dropping like a rock beginning late this afternoon...but we'll see. Yeah was surprised to see it got that cold. On the flip side, temps this afternoon overachieved, as we made it back up to -1 around 2pm. Didn't expect it to recover much above -5. Temp starting to fall off quickly now though. Already back to -5. Cable internet has been off here all day. Sounds like it could be a widespread issue according to the automated message. They said it was weather related, so the cold is even taking it's toll on technology apparently lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Free fall in progress, down to -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Here's a look at the HRRR for later. As with much of the other model output, it shows a little wind for the most part in N IL with some scattered calm conditions. Could see this being underdone in some of the notorious cold spots and if winds are calm in more areas. Looks like we got our own personal little high pressure bubble at 06z lol. Right over town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like we got our own personal little high pressure bubble at 06z lol. Right over town. How much snow do you have on the ground there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 It's dropped 5 degrees in the past hour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Already -9 in Freeport and -7 in Aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How much snow do you have on the ground there? A fairly dense 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Weather station is showing 1041.9, and is still slowly rising. Ridin' the ridge. Down another degree to -6. How low will she go? It's a race to midnight when we'll probably level off here, and potentially rise back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: A fairly dense 5". Pretty close here I'd say around 6". Was hoping for more heading into this night but there probably comes a point of diminishing returns anyway as far as how cold it could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Pretty close here I'd say around 6". Was hoping for more heading into this night but there probably comes a point of diminishing returns anyway as far as how cold it could get. Yeah no doubt. Was looking like you guys could really get dumped on there for a bit last night when that plume was riding the shore over Alekville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 53 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Too soon to open up an entire discussion yet about this probably, I'll leave that to you guys, but for what it's worth the 18z GFS suggests, for Xmas weekend, a very serious, powerful low and storm through the central to northern plains, burying virtually all of Nebraska and extreme NW KS in 12 inch + snows and then tracks ENE to nail IA, Nrn IL, WI and MI in very deep snows as well. I don't know how to embed such images on this forum yet, but It was a very intense looking run despite it's low likelihood of reality I'm not going to buy it right now since it's a week away and things could change. Remember the past two weekends (counting this weekend)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Dubuque already at -15. Clinton -11, and Rochelle -10. Nice start. EDIT: The above via the mesowest site, that updates every 5mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 -10 @1041.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Natester said: I'm not going to buy it right now since it's a week away and things could change. Remember the past two weekends (counting this weekend)? GFS has been 'advertising" something for the last few days between the 25th and the 28th. Everything from an App runner, a north streaker straight out of the gulf, a strong southern stream system to a Pacific zonal similar to what we've had. It's occasionally had support from the Canadian and the Ukie, but it has been the most consistent with at least advertising something in that time frame. The trend seem's to be a storm of some type as we move from the 25th forward. It would be nice if we could get some southern stream phasing finally for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Still early but temps seem to be falling slower than progged for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Down to -10 here. Temp languished in the -6 to -7 range for quite awhile before dropping again. So far -15 in the lowest temp in the DVN area, at Dubuque and Monticello. Saw earlier that lone Rock WI was at -17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Still early but temps seem to be falling slower than progged for now.ARR has been as cold as -15 on the 5 minute ob site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Dubuque now -17. Lone Rock has jumped up 8 degrees to -9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Down to 2 here with clear skies and calm wind. Might be a reach to get to -9 forecast with a half inch snow pack lol. Y'all can keep those minus double digits up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: ARR has been as cold as -15 on the 5 minute ob site. It seemed like the drop off sort of stalled temporarily in many areas. But ORD went down 2 degrees in the past hour and there are some ob sites in the LOT cwa showing calm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Down to -11. Only about 2-3 more hours of falling temps left though. Lone Rock WI temps bouncing around like a ping pong ball. Was down to -17 earlier, then up to -9, and now they're back down at -20. Must be some very shallow arctic air in the drainage area that station is located in. EDIT: Nice to have the weather station back uploading to the net. Internet outage "fixed". It was this stupid modem the whole time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Got down to -13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Aurora has been as low as -17. Down to -7 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Down to -12 after spiking back up to -8 for a bit an hour ago or so. We're probably on the verge of bottoming out now, so the fun's about over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.