powderfreak Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 In January 2015 the 00z EURO run within 24 hours of start time had me with 1.1" of QPF. Actual was like 0.15". It missed a decimal point within 24 hours. I still have that run saved somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The modeling was actually pretty solid for the Jan 2015 storm if one could come to terms with the ECMWF being an outlier...it's hard to treat it as one and subsequently put less weight on it. At first, I was more on board with it, but once we got inside of 36 hours, I think it was starting to become obvious that it was an outlier and probably wrong being as far west as it was. In the scheme of things, it wasn't horrifically far west, but it was over a highly populated region where the 50-60 mile difference mattered....NYC, HFD, SW CT and CT River Valley. The RGEM staying consistently stubborn with the westward extent of the mega snows around ORH was definitely a red flag. Typically the RGEM likes to agree with the Euro on amped solution and they make a deadly pair, but they didn't agree. Even the NAM mostly staying in the RGEM region (aside form a run or two) inside of 36 hours was a red flag. The modeling for January 2005 was definitely worse. Consistently too far south and east until the last second, save the Euro and old ETA which showed big hits about 3 days out (Euro even longer actually)....but even they weren't quite amped enough. even the gfs was too far west with jan 2015 for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 17 hours ago, powderfreak said: In January 2015 the 00z EURO run within 24 hours of start time had me with 1.1" of QPF. Actual was like 0.15". It missed a decimal point within 24 hours. I still have that run saved somewhere. Yup, for me it was still off by 2.0 qpf on its 01/27 0z run lol.....but nah, as long as cape cod ma usa got their 30", the world is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: even the gfs was too far west with jan 2015 for a while Yeah the overnight runs on Saturday were pretty bullish for west...I think even sunday morning still had bullish runs, though I believe that 12z run on Sunday was the first RGEM run that showed further east track, and then most guidance sans the Euro started lining up with it by 00z Sunday night and def by 12z Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the overnight runs on Saturday were pretty bullish for west...I think even sunday morning still had bullish runs, though I believe that 12z run on Sunday was the first RGEM run that showed further east track, and then most guidance sans the Euro started lining up with it by 00z Sunday night and def by 12z Monday morning. nyc would have gotten clobbered had this verified http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20150125/AVNEAST_0z/avneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: nyc would have gotten clobbered had this verified http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20150125/AVNEAST_0z/avneastloop.html Glad we didn't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thanks for the useful model archive link. np Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 I just remember how much colder the air was that Saturday afternoon before the Snow began on January 22nd 2005, much colder than 2015 at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 I am reading over the NWS discussions on the storm from 21st through 23rd amazing discussions, you can see the excitement change on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Gulf of Alaska low and trough retrograded west to a position just south of Central Alaska pumping up heights positively over the PNA region allowing a ridge to build over the western US. This allowed a very cold dump of fresh arctic air into the eastern 2/3rds of the US allowing the trough to amplify and grow into a nor'easter off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 I love reading the only two threads we have in this forum dedicated to the blizzards of this decade. Unfortunately we didn't have as good a following in 2005 for the January blizzard like we do now for the Blizzard of 2015 and social media wasn't as widespread as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 SO the wind gust formula is 1mb/1mph between a high and low pressure centers? so if there is a 95mb difference between a High and a Low then winds could gust to 95mph, wow neat, is there any validity to this METS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 I love watching the WCVB coverage videos on youtube from the blizzard of 2015, and how wrong Harvey was on the amounts of snow on Cape Cod, especially Harwich points westward, Chatham was a lot less than Harwich, I received 33" he forecasted 10-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I love reading the only two threads we have in this forum dedicated to the blizzards of this decade. Unfortunately we didn't have as good a following in 2005 for the January blizzard like we do now for the Blizzard of 2015 and social media wasn't as widespread as it is now.Dumb.First of all, they weren't in the same decade.Second of all, Feb 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 No **** JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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