WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[vortex95]

On 7/31/2026 at 12:05 AM, vortex95 said:

Highest global ACE TCs
1)  Ioke 2006          85.3
2)  Freddy 2023        83.3
3)  San Ciriaco 1899   73.6
4)  John 1994          70.6
5)  Ivan 2004          70.4
5)  Paka 1997          70.2
6)  Irma 2017          64.9
7)  Isabel 2003        63.3
8)  Rita 1972          62.9
9)  Fico 1978          62.8
10) Fengshen 2002      61.2

Bavi's ACE from this year ACE is 51.4.

Correction to the above.  Here is revised ACE list top 20.  Got it from this site:
https://global-tropical-cyclones.com/

All sorts of neat global TC stats here.  Allows one to quantify all basins season-to-date well along the historical info.

For the list attached, for some reason they counted Paka from 1997 twice.  I think b/c the storm formed in the cntrl Pacific and crossed into the wrn Pacific.  So really #20 on the list should be Lola from the NWPAC in 1957.

Also this site is great as well.
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
 

[Windspeed]

Dolphin is definitely winning in beauty points. Absolutely gorgeous expansive typhoon.

[Chinook]

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

[vortex95]

44 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

It has become a very large typhoon, which is to be expected w/ a system around this long gradually moving out of the tropics, but the inner core reforming like that w/ a smaller eye that a few days ago is surprising.  The other day the eye was about 35 nm in diameter, but now about 20 nm.

We still have another 5 days before landfall, so it may form a giant eye yet.

Fcst to pass right over Okinawa.  Three METAR sites to look at for Okinawa for the passage -- RODN, ROTM, and ROAH. It's too bad the WSR-88D at RODN was decommissioned a few years ago!

[Windspeed]

Spiral galaxy mode engaged.

[vortex95]

Global models has been showing a very active monsoon trough in the NWPAC w/ as many as 5 TCs at once.  5 named storms in this basin has happened many times. 6 only once on 8/15/2018.

You get large monsoonal depressions and small spin-up gyres that are not always declared by JTWC.  GFS for Monday shows 5 distinct systems of various intensity and size.

 

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

Check out what the HAFS A had cooked up!

[Chinook]

Typhoon Dolphin, with measurements at Okinawa and nearby

 

[vortex95]

Dolphin made a strong comeback for its inner core after looking no so good earlier.
 

[Torchageddon]

If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!

Yes, it is an odd duck.  I would have thought it would have become annular now w/ a giant eye, but it keeps reforming a small inner core.  The storm's gale radii did expand over time at least, so that part of the fcst worked out well.

[Windspeed]

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.





 

And it is jogging S.  That pretty good influence for island mountains that are only 1000-1700 ft!

[Torchageddon]

Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas.

Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that?

I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb  . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas.

Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that?

I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb  . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.

RORY Yoronjima pressure dropped to at least 938 mb as the eye passed.  Since the reports are hourly, the pressure likely got lower.

However, the winds are not what one would expect for such a small inner core and low pressure.

 

RORY 070600Z AUTO 11031G42KT 2300 RA BR SCT008 OVC010 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959

RORY 070500Z AUTO 11032G45KT 3300 -RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC013 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959

RORY 070400Z AUTO 11031G44KT 1500 RA BR FEW004 BKN007 OVC008 //////TCU 28/27 Q0957

RORY 070300Z AUTO 10040G68KT 0600 RA FG OVC004 //////CB 28/28 Q0951

RORY 070200Z AUTO 06022G33KT 1200 -RA BR FEW003 BKN005 BKN007 //////TCU 29/28 Q0938

RORY 070100Z AUTO 33055G71KT 0200 RA FG SCT004 BKN007 OVC012 //////TCU 28/28 Q0951

RORY 070000Z AUTO 33038G51KT 1300 RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC011 //////TCU 28/27 Q0961

[Windspeed]

RORY Yoronjima pressure dropped to at least 938 mb as the eye passed.  Since the reports are hourly, the pressure likely got lower.

However, the winds are not what one would expect for such a small inner ocre and low pressure.
 
RORY 070600Z AUTO 11031G42KT 2300 RA BR SCT008 OVC010 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959
RORY 070500Z AUTO 11032G45KT 3300 -RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC013 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959
RORY 070400Z AUTO 11031G44KT 1500 RA BR FEW004 BKN007 OVC008 //////TCU 28/27 Q0957
RORY 070300Z AUTO 10040G68KT 0600 RA FG OVC004 //////CB 28/28 Q0951
RORY 070200Z AUTO 06022G33KT 1200 -RA BR FEW003 BKN005 BKN007 //////TCU 29/28 Q0938
RORY 070100Z AUTO 33055G71KT 0200 RA FG SCT004 BKN007 OVC012 //////TCU 28/28 Q0951
RORY 070000Z AUTO 33038G51KT 1300 RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC011 //////TCU 28/27 Q0961

The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.

[vortex95]

Looking closer, it appears Dolphin's motion may be a Fujiwara from the remains of 13W and the new invest 98W, both to Dolphin's SE.  You can see this all on the 00 hr GFS 850 vorticity attached.

And in the next week, the GFS really gets carried away (see model loop attached), spinning up several more gyres (and 13W comes back), some or all that could become TCs.  This happens every several years when you get a large monsoon trough in the NWPAC.  JTWC/RJTD do not always declare these systems, esp. if they are very small, but just b/c they are very small does not mean they are not legit TCs.  If anything, the small TCs tend to be stronger than any satellite estimate can provide!

5 named storms at once in the NWPAC has occurred many times, but only 6 at once one time.  See table attached.