WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[vortex95]

On 7/31/2026 at 12:05 AM, vortex95 said:

Highest global ACE TCs
1)  Ioke 2006          85.3
2)  Freddy 2023        83.3
3)  San Ciriaco 1899   73.6
4)  John 1994          70.6
5)  Ivan 2004          70.4
5)  Paka 1997          70.2
6)  Irma 2017          64.9
7)  Isabel 2003        63.3
8)  Rita 1972          62.9
9)  Fico 1978          62.8
10) Fengshen 2002      61.2

Bavi's ACE from this year ACE is 51.4.

Correction to the above.  Here is revised ACE list top 20.  Got it from this site:
https://global-tropical-cyclones.com/

All sorts of neat global TC stats here.  Allows one to quantify all basins season-to-date well along the historical info.

For the list attached, for some reason they counted Paka from 1997 twice.  I think b/c the storm formed in the cntrl Pacific and crossed into the wrn Pacific.  So really #20 on the list should be Lola from the NWPAC in 1957.

Also this site is great as well.
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
 

[Windspeed]

Dolphin is definitely winning in beauty points. Absolutely gorgeous expansive typhoon.

[Chinook]

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

[vortex95]

44 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

It has become a very large typhoon, which is to be expected w/ a system around this long gradually moving out of the tropics, but the inner core reforming like that w/ a smaller eye that a few days ago is surprising.  The other day the eye was about 35 nm in diameter, but now about 20 nm.

We still have another 5 days before landfall, so it may form a giant eye yet.

Fcst to pass right over Okinawa.  Three METAR sites to look at for Okinawa for the passage -- RODN, ROTM, and ROAH. It's too bad the WSR-88D at RODN was decommissioned a few years ago!

[Windspeed]

Spiral galaxy mode engaged.

[vortex95]

Global models has been showing a very active monsoon trough in the NWPAC w/ as many as 5 TCs at once.  5 named storms in this basin has happened many times. 6 only once on 8/15/2018.

You get large monsoonal depressions and small spin-up gyres that are not always declared by JTWC.  GFS for Monday shows 5 distinct systems of various intensity and size.

 

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

Check out what the HAFS A had cooked up!

[Chinook]

Typhoon Dolphin, with measurements at Okinawa and nearby

 

[vortex95]

Dolphin made a strong comeback for its inner core after looking no so good earlier.
 

[Torchageddon]

If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!

Yes, it is an odd duck.  I would have thought it would have become annular now w/ a giant eye, but it keeps reforming a small inner core.  The storm's gale radii did expand over time at least, so that part of the fcst worked out well.

[Windspeed]

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.





 

And it is jogging S.  That pretty good influence for island mountains that are only 1000-1700 ft!

[Torchageddon]

Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas.

Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that?

I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb  . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.