cheese007 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 TV mets already hyping this event. Naturally the potential snow line is just north of Dallas lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 11 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Meh. If that happens precip will likely get shunted further south so it wouldn't matter. I think even if your scenario panned out lower levels will still be too warm unless it miraculously wet-bulbs to 0C. I could see this being a Waxahachie to Texarkana event where someone may get a wet inch with surface temps around 37. There could also be a precursor light event during the early morning NW of DFW with temps around 32 and night time allowing for accumulation even with lighter rates. All speculation until.we.get to after lunch tomorrow and can start looking at hi res models. Key for southern area could be convection. I do love not having to contend with a warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Hmmmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 hours ago, cheese007 said: Hmmmmmmmmmmm NW and W of the Metroplex I think it's certainly possible but as you get further east I think that risk drops off considerably. 12Z GFS give Stephenville and Granbury a brief shot at some wet snow overnight tonight but I wouldn't expect anything more than a coating. Western Fort Worth I think even has a slim chance to see some mixing for a brief window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I am favoring the Stephenville area for upwards of 3 inches with a rain/sleet/snow mix for DFW and the I-30 corridor of NE TX. Should be an entertaining day to watch social media with differing precip types by neighborhood depending on precip rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It's amazing how close DFW comes to a decent event only for temps to end up juuuust warm enough for snow not to fall. Still an outside chance something falls tonight and it's not even technically winter yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Warm nose seems to have nuked this setup per NWS. Like clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Yep, looks like the warm nose was more stout than expected. MPing shows some mixing reports over DFW, can any of yall confirm those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Don't even have any precip here and I'm supposedly right under a snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The area south of Abilene may bring some mixed precip or even all snow. That is the last hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Umm the latest GFS delivers a record snowstorm for Texas at the end of its run. Wow what a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 13 hours ago, cheese007 said: Don't even have any precip here and I'm supposedly right under a snow band There was some considerable low level dry air associated with this anafront which gobbled up a lot of what little QPF there was to begin with. That, along with a more pronounced warm nose than modeled was the nail in the coffin for any wishful snow chances here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Looking back through my records, I have an elaborate "difference in proportions" analog system that tries to match overall conditions in Summer to those that precede snowy conditions in winter, and then score how likely a given outcome. The things I try to match are these, for Albuquerque, using about 90-years of snow data: >=3" Snow in March >=3" Snow in February >=3" Snow in January >=3" Snow in December >=3" Snow 'off-season', i.e. Nov or Apr >=10" in January-May >=6" in February-May Each of eight conditions in Summer is scored as -1, 0, or +1, with +1 ideal for snow overall, and -1 bad. Last year, the observed conditions in the Summer were not a great match for any of >=3" Snow ideals, and they were not a good match for a lot of snow late. This year is completely different. In essence, the scoring can be a total match (~0), or a total miss (~13) to conditions that are ideal historically. Last year, December had a Score=4 for 3"+ of snow, and that did happen, with 3.2" snow (and then we also topped 3" in February). All the other months were worse matches than December though. This year, Nov/Apr >=3" had a score of 2.5. Real strong match. We had 4.0" in November. This year, January has a score of 4, and there is a strong signal for a wet January at least. More importantly, there is a score of 3 for Jan-May seeing 10" of snow. Conditions in Summer were not a good match to heavy snow years in Dec/Feb/Mar. Will be interesting to see how we'd get to that 10"+ in Jan-May if it were to verify, given that April is somewhat favored too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Multiple Tor warnings in LA this morning. Moderate risk with hatched tors is there a thread for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Time to start watching the Friday/Saturday bowling ball upper low. There is potential for snow across the state with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Angel Fire, NM bottomed out at -26 last night. Man they get cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 12 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Time to start watching the Friday/Saturday bowling ball upper low. There is potential for snow across the state with this. Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 10 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain. Just depends how suppressed it ends up being. The GFS is a fast and further north outlier right now. very cold upper levels and background temps in the low 40s would likely be some snow for Central through E TX on the backside from dynamic cooling. Big issue though is lack of a SW flow into the low for moisture as the cold will be there this weekend. Looking ahead, through Christmas and likely through the end of the year the cold and moisture will be west of the Rockies. I could see many mountain locales seeing >2 feet of snow throughout the West over the next couple weeks. This all because of a +EPO/-PNA pattern. Around the beginning of 2020 we look to see a return of -EPO with a continued -PNA which is a snowy pattern for the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 GFS is trying to trend to a good snow event for Albuquerque on Friday. The European doesn't really have it - just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Euro/GFS/Canadian all have a closed 500mb low in AZ/NM on December 28th, so it's definitely something to watch for the southern Rockies and areas of the plains into Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Euro & GFS don't seem to be able to agree on timing or duration for the late week system. The GFS originally had a big snow event for the Rio Grande Valley. Now the Euro does, and the GFS has rain. They don't seem to agree on the backdoor cold-front. Both do show a lot of precipitation coming in though, so someone will get a lot of snow. The GFS also has the storm much earlier, while the Euro is later. I think the ensemble means are in between. This is the 5 am run of the Euro today, from the Pivotal site today at 11 am. This is almost all within ~5 days now if the timing hasn't dramatically changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 GFS still has storm timing faster later this week. The big SOI drop 12/22-12/24 ties in fairly well with the storm shown around 1/3 on the GFS, despite it being super far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 9th warmest Christmas on record for DFW. 5th winter straight with no snowfall is looking ever more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 The GFS has been sending a snow storm pretty deep into Mexico early in 2020. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The huge recent SOI drop suggests it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I have four methods for predicting Spring precipitation here: NDJ + Solar conditions Closest Precip Patterns July-Dec Replicate Precip Patterns July-Dec Statistical Regression The middle two methods imply a pretty wet Spring. I have a lot more faith in the third method this year compared to the second, as it was very difficult to mimic July-Dec 2019 with historical data this year. Heavily reliant on 1905 & 2004 to do it, with other years in there as 'fix its'. Essentially, you try to match the data in black for July-Dec with the blend. The green is then the forecast from the rolled forward blend. You can see how well the blend did last year, even though I gave up on November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like the amazing start to winter will continue for SW ski resorts. Since before Thanksgiving they haven't gone much more than a week without a 6" snow storm with cold in between (-22F right now at Angel Fire). For Texas all that is missing is for the PV to split which usually happens in late Jan. Most -EPO/-ENSO winters are bookend winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The SOI was very different this year in Oct-Dec. Implies radically different Jan/Feb than in 2019. The match composite was basically correct last year too. The left figures are for 2019, the right from 2018. Amplification was wrong, but the SOI blends had the right spatial ideas for Jan-Feb 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well. Might as well get severe season started early! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Albuquerque only has about six degrees of variation from the long-term average high for the past 100-years in winter (DJF) highs. We're deep enough into winter to confidently eliminate about half of that. With the high at 47.3F for 12/1-1/4, the winter here should finish at 49.6F, +/-3.1F at 90% certainty. The historical range is 49.5F, +/-6.3F essentially. Expecting the high to be right around 47.0F for 12/1-1/10 here, since it does look cold after Sunday. I'm increasingly concerned that the "E Pac Tropical Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt" part of the pattern that appeared 11/16-11/30 will return, but is going to be a March thing. I think Jan 3 is roughly Sept 18 in terms of the pattern cycling through. If that pattern does cycle back, it's a major blizzard/heavy snowstorm pattern for the Southwest. I'm hesitant to be optimistic for Albuquerque, since the airport has never reported more than 3.8 inches of snow in March, in a low solar year back to 1931-32. High solar March will see ~30% of years top 3 inches of snow, compared to ~3% in low-solar, and its more like 75% in high solar El Ninos. I'm a little afraid of that March period verifying. The city has not had any snow in March since 2012. It is ridiculously, way way over due. So even though I don't expect it, with March 1975 being the only significant March snow in a low solar year, I wouldn't be shocked if we had some fluke 6-10 inch snow storm or something. The setup in November, an extended cold dry period, ending with an attack of very wet moist air moving over it, is probably our best possible setup for a March snowstorm. I'd imagine the NE gets their two big Nor'easters in March or late February if this part of the pattern is really set to come back. This is my working theory for timing - Sept 16-18 = Jan 1-3 Sept 25 = Jan 10 Oct 2 = Jan 17 (should be a big storm for the SW around Jan 19 in this scenario) Oct 19 = Jan 24 Oct 26 = Jan 31 Oct 31 = Feb 5 (record cold for the SW? - that happened on Halloween. The great Arctic Outbreak of Feb 2011, when ABQ fell to -7F, with a high of 9F, was on Feb 4, 2011) Nov 11-13 = Feb 16-18. This would be the time frame for the "Mother of Blue Northers" to relapse. Nov 15 = Feb 20 Nov 20 = Feb 25 (big storm?) Nov 27-29 = Mar 2-4. This is the time frame the big SW storm that brought big Nov snows to the Rio Grande Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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