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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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3 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

That's probably a good plan.. I blame it on the media hype up lol.. I do hope nowcasting changes things though for sure.. the trends right now aren't promising though

The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it

Oh yeah, nbc5 is still in full hype mode too. I bet they have the thunder trucks out already lol

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6 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it

They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. 

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4 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. 

Wouldn't hold my breath on that... They are the ones that hyped up our 2 minutes of snow from Thursday after all... 

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10 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. 

Still amazed about the shift to the NAM. I swear I was only kidding in that last post 

 

EDIT: Wonder what's the longest area school districts have gone without issuing a snow day? I know UTD has not issued one since 2015 (and have doubts we will this year). Very real possibility that some folks middle school years will not include a snow day, and depending on this coming winter that may be expanded to include HS/college

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9 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Still amazed about the shift to the NAM. I swear I was only kidding in that last post 

I remember someone said NAM is the only one he would watch for inside 48 hours. Didn't believe that until now... all models converging to NAM in this case, unfortunately.

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Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that?

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18 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that?

I just pulled it up on tropical tidbits and yes it does show a LOT more moisture and ice for not just dfw but the entire state really..

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25 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

I just pulled it up on tropical tidbits and yes it does show a LOT more moisture and ice for not just dfw but the entire state really..

Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does.

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6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does.

Honestly I have no clue as I hadn't heard of this model until just now, but I will say this looking at radar in Kansas and it does appear to me that there would be a bit more moisture along the front than advertised.. think it depends on how fast it moves more than anything at this point..

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The HRRRx (the HRRR experimental version) has done well in the past; so it is definitely worth watching as we get in operational range of the current HRRR. Remember that with surface temperatures falling into the 20s it won't take much precipitation to cause major travel problems. I'm also concerned with the potential for enhanced sleet bands across South-Central Texas. Some models have been hitting Austin and San Antonio pretty hard with sleet on Tuesday. 

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A big thing in our favor up along I20 is that the models last night initialized the surface high too strong which caused things to dry out too quickly up this way. The hi res models are more accurate with their initialization and they show percip starting along the Read River vs along I20. This leads to a longer duration precip event. Up here most precip will be frozen but we will have to see when the transition happens from sleet to snow.

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One of my friends is working just North of Tulsa, OK this morning and sent me this picture.   I am not as familiar with how systems move in this part of the country.  Is some of what we may see here in N Texas later today?  

4BE85C9A-BE72-4CFA-9C8E-F4251941B7B0.jpeg

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1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

A big thing in our favor up along I20 is that the models last night initialized the surface high too strong which caused things to dry out too quickly up this way. The hi res models are more accurate with their initialization and they show percip starting along the Read River vs along I20. This leads to a longer duration precip event. Up here most precip will be frozen but we will have to see when the transition happens from sleet to snow.

Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR.

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I said a few days ago that two snow events in one winter was unheard of here and that stratocumulus snow was something I hadn't experienced until this year. I might have to update those two statements in a couple of days.

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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR.

I sure am hoping that the cold deepens quickly cutting down on the ice and sleet and upping the snow. Deep E TX and northern Central Texas could get a good amount of sleet though. Up along I 20 in E TX we could see 3-5" totals if the cold deepens fast enough maybe more in spots. The trends are sure looking good right now.

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Seems like the 17 HRRR is hanging back precip ever so slightly vs. 16 just a tad longer over DFW. It's going to be close, but some optimism today.

 

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44 minutes ago, Roy said:

Seems like the 17 HRRR is hanging back precip ever so slightly vs. 16 just a tad longer over DFW. It's going to be close, but some optimism today.

 

And even more moisture on the latest 18. It's leaning toward the HRRRX solution.

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NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range...

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The HRRR definitely seems like it has more precipitation trending North and West. It’s subtle, but the is some definite movement.The first image is 18z run and the second is 21z run.

1F83EFFC-4C53-4970-AC82-B5831DE112D8.png

57D9EEA0-8242-4FC6-989E-6606ABF249CD.png

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1 minute ago, Captmorg70 said:

The HRRR definitely seems like it has more precipitation trending North and West. It’s subtle, but the is some definite movement.The first image is 18z run and the second is 21z run.

I have a feeling that NWS is bit conservative by saying that HRRR is too wet (or maybe they ignore the trend?). But if the this solution pans out, it gonna be a major ice event that includes DFW.

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38 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range...

Has there been any time in the past where the NAM has verified better than HRRR and NWS called it in advandce? Getting a sense of deja-vu but not sure if it's the lack of wintry precip these last few years driving me crazy

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13 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I have a feeling that NWS is bit conservative by saying that HRRR is too wet (or maybe they ignore the trend?). But if the this solution pans out, it gonna be a major ice event that includes DFW.

It seems that at least the latter portion of the period that the HRRR has ice could be sleet of even snow per the soundings which show just a slight warm nose. This could bump totals up some even if it is overdoing moisture by a bit. HRRR gives me around 0.5" liquid with subfreezing temps. Gives Dallas Co 0.1-0.2" liquid when subfreezing.

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52 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Radar at 5PM seems showing less precip than HRRR predicted. Not a very good sign.

Betting against the NWS is a fool's errand

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I just stepped out in Burleson and there's already cold rain falling here, I tried putting cardboard on the windshield... This wind just blew it right off... So back to my Midwestern roots of raising the wiper blades and have the scraper

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