H2O Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It always mixes here.. except all the times it didn't. It mixed with dry air during the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think you're confusing mixing with dryslotting. Gotta keep the north/west folks feeling like they have purpose in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 so if this starts on 14th and finishes on 15th and lives up to at least an MECS would it be the Valentines Day Storm or PD3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 so if this starts on 14th and finishes on 15th and lives up to at least an MECS would it be the Valentines Day Storm or PD3? It could be PD3. We've already had VD0.5 with the #lovesquall last year. So this storm could make up 1.5 and be VD2. We should have a poll. Post more snowmaps people. Does the para GFS have it. What about the parallel ensembles? Control run? Navgem? You guys are slacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Feb 14, 2015 was as good as our HECS to me. Nahhh. At least here, we had 3 hours of Feb 14, 2015 Saturday Afternoon. Plus 20" more snow to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It could be PD3. We've already had VD0.5 with the #lovesquall last year. So this storm could make up 1.5 and be VD2. We should have a poll. Post more snowmaps people. Does the para GFS have it. What about the parallel ensembles? Control run? Navgem? You guys are slacking. If I have to. Here is the Ggem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 But for realz tho, yall know it's not gonna be on tonight's 0z GFS, right? It will be there and when the shows it we can start a thread before DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It will be there and when the shows it we can start a thread before DT.Woofsie davey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Need some mods to clean up this ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Or maybe a new thread this one is kind of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 After watching the craptacular trends for the event early next week, it's sure nice to see something that might actually have some real possibility...even at d+10! But seriously, that's quite a classic set-up and it's not just one run of one model showing it out in la-la land. It's appeared now in the Euro, GFS, and their respective ensembles, and not just today. Others in here I know have been eyeing that general period as well. Obviously, it's out there in time still and we all know the story of how things can go, yet it's a pretty strong signal. Kind of remarkably so. I've read the discussion on when we first saw some kind of agreement on the January blizzard, or when it really started to show up as a realistic possibility. Going by memory and now what I've seen in here, yeah, it was close to the same general time frame, about 10 days out. I distinctly recall some classic fantasy GFS runs in there too around that time. I don't know if it really means anything in particular, but the set-up shown for the next weekend potential looks better now than what it looked like at the same lead time prior to the blizzard. At least that's my impression. Again, that may not mean squat, but it's interesting all the same. I'd be up for an "easy" (relatively speaking!), great storm that's honed in very early and never wavers, like what happened last month. Much better to have a boring "yeah, so the GFS again shows us getting destroyed, as does the Euro" for several days right up through game time than having to sweat it out too much! Since this would be Presidents' Day weekend (of course!), it's worth some mention of 2003 I think. I don't remember how far out models really zeroed in on a pretty definite major storm, but at least 5 days before (I was working at NCEP at the time) I remember the GFS showing a hit time after time with on the order of ~1.25" QPF being thrown into the cold air with a nice, big high sitting up in the northeast. If anything, the surface temperatures trended colder in the models as that weekend approached. (ETA: Well, apparently my original "s*itacular" remark got censored to "****acular", so I changed it...I guess "crap" is more acceptable, haha!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It could be PD3. We've already had VD0.5 with the #lovesquall last year. So this storm could make up 1.5 and be VD2. We should have a poll. Post more snowmaps people. Does the para GFS have it. What about the parallel ensembles? Control run? Navgem? You guys are slacking. Man, that was a great little event!! 2" snow here in the space of about an hour or so, followed by bitter cold and very strong winds! Really exciting and in some ways I think it's one of the best events of last winter. It sure ushered in a fantastic 3 week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It will be there and when the shows it we can start a thread before DT. Woof! Aleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 New Thread Started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47818-february-medlong-range-discussion-part-2/#entry3956080 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah, sorry to contribute to the mess. I think a new thread would be good. I was joking there but it is a long thread.. time for a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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