2016 Global Temperatures

[wolfpackmet]

No surprises with NOAA's February release this morning.  +1.21 C above 20th century average.  

[csnavywx]

Two very large warm pools splitting the equator.

And the Indian ocean is boiling.

They are double the size of the West PAC cool pools and more anomolous.

They are going somewhere.

That's what matters. They will warm the atmosphere or warm the upper oceans.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~melicie/dmodel1.htm

[Chinook]

Found this on NOAA web site. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201602

February 2016 NOAA climate update

 

 

• The December–February average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 2.03°F (1.13°C) above the 20^th century average. This was the highest for December–February in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.52°F (0.26°C). December 2015–February 2016 also marks the highest 3-month departure from average for any 3-month period on record, surpassing the previous record set last month, November 2015–January 2016, by 0.16°F (0.09°C).

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~melicie/dmodel1.htm

It doesn't really explain what happens to the residual heat as Nina is being established.

Is this heat redistributed to the subtropics?

One thing is for sure the positive feedback could have implications at some point on the decoupled system.

During the rise of nino and the rise of Nina from what I can understand I think the system becomes coupled with the atmosphere.

Then decouples as this wave propagation takes place.

Either way during the entire process. Heat is absorbed by the upper ocean at an ever increasing rate.

Hence during el nino of 2015-16 there is an abundantly clear signal which still requires study and then peer review that near surface equatorial upper ocean heat is higher than the underneath warm/cool pools would historically indicate.

There is a substantial cold pool over the Western EPAC and yet you wouldn't know from the ssts.

There continues to be a paper thin near surface warm layer that has off set upward propagation of cooling rossby waves when the moved Westward towards Indo-Australia area.

Recently including now in the dying days of nino.

At the surface at least ssts are not historically aligned with their subsequent near surface sub surface water temps.

The ghf forcing problem exerts itself whether it's sunny 24/7 with its exerting influence on the continual OLR exiting the ocean admist the diurnal swings or even stronger influence inside the sun blocking high water vapor tropical convection events where water vapor feedback is at its greatest.

Each year these positive forcings grow stronger and are most influential where the greatest thermal heat exchange takes place.

In my head I see it like convection exhausts heat like normal but as water vapor and GHG forcing increase more heat is trapped and subsequently the near surface layer of ocean retains more heat.

Over a 30-50 year time frame this might show it self as an average of 0.5C in measurable terms.

Which might explain the massive difference WWBS Central and WPAC ssts during this nino and historical ninos of similar magnitude when major dateline eastward WWBS.

Right now the cold pool effects are???????

And why is the Indian ocean so warm????

All the time???? After a cooling in February. March looks like the Indian ocean will shatter it's monthly warmest SSTA.

Im guessing we are going to see a continued increase in major Indian tc strength.

[The_Global_Warmer]

In terms of sensible weather being effected.

Is this a typical oscillation? The return of the further east forcing us a return of weakening trades.

Which will aid in slowing this nino.

[csnavywx]

NMME is forecasting weak nina conditions with lingering +PDO in October. Oct 1998 had moderate nina with negative PDO. Considerable uncertainty on ENSO/PDO evolution in 2016 but odds favor a more gradual shift to negative ENSO/PDO vs 1998

nmme_ssta_noice_global_7.png

Subsurface negative anomalies are significantly weaker than the 1998 episode, so I wouldn't expect a massive Nina -- but who knows. As for the PDO, all of the CMs keep it positive, some strongly so, which is pretty interesting.

[chubbs]

Below is the last 50 years of GISS data showing the: monthly values, the 5-year running average, and the linear trend. This nino is clearly the most unusual period in the past 50 years relative to both the long-term trend and to the 5-year mean. However, there is no evidence yet that the long-term trend is changing. Per the erratic upward trend in 5-year mean, it will take years to fully evaluate the impact of this nino.

[wolfpackmet]

This has been pointed out earlier in this thread but the focus on anomalies & not absolutes misses how impressive the warm pool near the dateline was during this Nino peak.  In the modern era we haven't seen such an expanse of 29-30 C waters.  The latent heat release could be non-linear once you go from 28 to 30 C & possibly why this spike was so huge.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

This has been pointed out earlier in this thread but the focus on anomalies & not absolutes misses how impressive the warm pool near the dateline was during this Nino peak. In the modern era we haven't seen such an expanse of 29-30 C waters. The latent heat release could be non-linear once you go from 28 to 30 C & possibly why this spike was so huge.

CybashM0Ww.png

And the Indian ocean basin has been running record warm.

Pretty huge area of 30C+ ssts over the Indian ocean.

Obviously not as big as the Pacific but this is along the equatorial region so really there has been a pretty much continuous strip of these 30C ssts over half of the equatorial ocean surface area globally for a while

Maybe not half but 30-40%.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Comparing 2010 to 2016 at this time. Stone areas are warmer and cooler.

But the core heat along the equator is stronger this go around.

And not just the epac.

[wolfpackmet]

It is likely that February was the peak for this ENSO cycle.  March will still be a huge anomaly and likely record breaking but currently lower than February on NCEP reanalysis and Weatherbell CFS(+0.684 C).  

http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

[blizzard1024]

Subsurface negative anomalies are significantly weaker than the 1998 episode, so I wouldn't expect a massive Nina -- but who knows. As for the PDO, all of the CMs keep it positive, some strongly so, which is pretty interesting.

 

How is there a PDO+ developing?? It looks like the beginning or trend to a colder PDO again. The warmth off the northwest U.S coast is fading and the warm pocket of waters east of Japan into the central Pacific seems to be developing again. see image 

 

 

This looks like a PDO- emerging and once the El Nino fades and either goes neutral or even slightly La Nina you have the southern Oceans cold, the North Atlantic and North Pacific cold. This looks like BOTH a cold PDO and AMO developing. With even neutral ENSO conditions, this would lead to a global temperature crash later this year similar to 1998 and possibly more. After the 1998 El Nino, the AMO was WARM, PDO COLD.

 

 

This time BOTH look to be cold. If this happens, I think global temperatures are going to fall off and be even colder than before this strong El Nino.  We shall see I guess later this year and in 2017....

[The_Global_Warmer]

How is there a PDO+ developing?? It looks like the beginning or trend to a colder PDO again. The warmth off the northwest U.S coast is fading and the warm pocket of waters east of Japan into the central Pacific seems to be developing again. see image

anomnight.3.24.2016.gif

This looks like a PDO- emerging and once the El Nino fades and either goes neutral or even slightly La Nina you have the southern Oceans cold, the North Atlantic and North Pacific cold. This looks like BOTH a cold PDO and AMO developing. With even neutral ENSO conditions, this would lead to a global temperature crash later this year similar to 1998 and possibly more. After the 1998 El Nino, the AMO was WARM, PDO COLD.

anomnight.12.29.1998.gif

This time BOTH look to be cold. If this happens, I think global temperatures are going to fall off and be even colder than before this strong El Nino. We shall see I guess later this year and in 2017....

Not a chance in hell.

[csnavywx]

I didn't say there was a +PDO developing... it's already there. All of the CMs keep it in the positive range through their respective forecast ranges.

 

As for the AMO or far North Atlantic SSTA in general, there's an ongoing link between the extreme warm-cold couplet via what is probably caused by an ongoing weakening of the AMOC.

[The_Global_Warmer]

A temporary weakening of the trades has allowed slow epac cooling but the Nino is dead by May.

3-4 might be dead by June.

But the IO is incredibly warm. As Well as the SH overall.

And the AMO has been neg-Neu since 2013??

I'd call it a non factor

[The_Global_Warmer]

Cfs had a 0.70C+ for Feb. March is finishing with a 0.65C+.

January was cooler.

So March is likely to be a repeat of Feb.

April is going to start around 0.70-0.75C+.

[blizzard1024]

For March, UAH came in with +.73C, NCEP reanalysis came in with +.76C and Weatherbell was +.65C

 

These are all pretty close so how can anyone criticize the satellite measurements??  These are 3 independent

ways to measures the global average temperatures....

[chubbs]

For March, UAH came in with +.73C, NCEP reanalysis came in with +.76C and Weatherbell was +.65C

 

These are all pretty close so how can anyone criticize the satellite measurements??  These are 3 independent

ways to measures the global average temperatures....

You can't draw conclusions from one month of data and you should wait for all the monthly data before judging this months relative position of UAH6. The re-analysis data above has limited value to evaluate UAH6. The NCEP re-analysis anomaly (from the Moyhu site) is relative to a 1994-2013 baseline so it is not comparable to CFS+UAH6 which are relative to a 1981 to 2010 baseline. CFS lags NCEP and the other re-analysis datasets due to relative cooling in the CFS to CFS2 transition in 2010/11.

[skierinvermont]

For March, UAH came in with +.73C, NCEP reanalysis came in with +.76C and Weatherbell was +.65C

 

These are all pretty close so how can anyone criticize the satellite measurements??  These are 3 independent

ways to measures the global average temperatures....

 

I'm going to have to word this stronger than Chubb did. 

 

It's one month. That's how. A f****ing 8 year old could answer that question. 

 

Also, NCEP reanalysis is on a different baseline so it's not remotely comparable. Again 8 year old material.

 

And finally, the CFS has an identified error and was not designed as a long-term measure or indicator of global temperature. Again, 8 year old material. Except you've been explained this before, so really you are just a liar.

 

Sorry, not going to use the kid gloves on you. You should be embarrassed to post such stupid nonsense.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'm going to have to word this stronger than Chubb did.

It's one month. That's how. A f****ing 8 year old could answer that question.

Also, NCEP reanalysis is on a different baseline so it's not remotely comparable. Again 8 year old material.

And finally, the CFS has an identified error and was not designed as a long-term measure or indicator of global temperature. Again, 8 year old material. Except you've been explained this before, so really you are just a liar.

Sorry, not going to use the kid gloves on you. You should be embarrassed to post such stupid nonsense.

I was about to say his posts and the natural defense and refuting of his posts or ones like it make this forum unreadable and more importantly kill all desire to interact here.

This is not a speculative issue.

His posts thinking cooling below 2014-2015 is completely fine. Everyone is entitled to a reasonable opinion and that is very reasonable even if I disagree.

But that post is complete nonsense. What I don't understand is why do it?

Does it make him feel better about his realty being destroyed?

This place was 60-75% deniers/skeptics between middle 2010 through middle 2013. Things started to change in the fall of 2013 and September of 2012.

The sea ice bump in 2013 increased enthusiasm in that camp. 2014 came along and that enthusiasm was maintained with the sea ice but surface temps tied or bested all time records with ohc rising the tide was turning.

2015 came along and before it was obvious at least a moderate nino was coming everyone knew the temp record was going to be crushed. Then the super can't came and it was all over.

Sea ice through June struggled inspite of weather. Then a record warm July regardless of the good August showed the ice has no resilience to any sustainable summer levels.

And now here we are.

The solar theory was was decimated.

If the AMO modulates global temps that signal is completely overwhelmed.

This chart is the futures chart of this industry.

We know it will fall back down. But not enough

[nzucker]

Well, the solar theory isn't completely debunked because we only had one low cycle and it did coinicide with cooling in the 2007-2009 La Nina...periods like the Maunder had multiple cycles of low activity that probably had a somewhat cumulative effect.

Plus, volcanic activity has been low since Pinatubo.

[Mallow]

I'm going to have to word this stronger than Chubb did. 

 

It's one month. That's how. A f****ing 8 year old could answer that question. 

 

Also, NCEP reanalysis is on a different baseline so it's not remotely comparable. Again 8 year old material.

 

And finally, the CFS has an identified error and was not designed as a long-term measure or indicator of global temperature. Again, 8 year old material. Except you've been explained this before, so really you are just a liar.

 

Sorry, not going to use the kid gloves on you. You should be embarrassed to post such stupid nonsense.

 

 

I considered responding to his post like you did. It baffles me that he would post something like that--he has to know how ridiculous it sounds. It's really no different from saying "there have been some snowy winters in DCA recently, so how can people say global warming exists?"

[The_Global_Warmer]

So sad. Just ridiculous.

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/february-2016-global-surface-temperature-anomalies-may-or-may-not-have-been-highest-on-record-according-to-the-ukmo/#more-10572

[skierinvermont]

Well, the solar theory isn't completely debunked because we only had one low cycle and it did coinicide with cooling in the 2007-2009 La Nina...periods like the Maunder had multiple cycles of low activity that probably had a somewhat cumulative effect.

Plus, volcanic activity has been low since Pinatubo.

 

Except the surface cooling was almost entirely attributable to the La Nina and huge surge in global winds. The earth continued to warm rapidly at an incomprehensibly high rate. 

 

It was a very low minimum and a very weak peak. And not only was the earth still hot, it continued getting hotter. Now if the implication is that the cooling didn't start because it's only been one very weak cycle, well that's just wishful thinking and stupidity because there is no remotely plausible physical mechanism that would delay the onset of cooling that long. Instead, the earth continued gaining immense amounts of thermal energy. 

Plus, think about how science works. AGW people said the earth would continue gaining heat during a strong solar minimum. The deniers said it would be the commencement of the long awaited cooling (they also said the PDO flip would do that). Science is about making predictions and testing them. When the prediction is correct, it corroborates the hypothesis. 

 

 

Yes, volcanic activity has been below average. However, the global dimming of aerosols has probably masked nearly 1C of warming.

[Msalgado]

For March, UAH came in with +.73C, NCEP reanalysis came in with +.76C and Weatherbell was +.65C

 

These are all pretty close so how can anyone criticize the satellite measurements??  These are 3 independent

ways to measures the global average temperatures....

 

You really need to be explained about this again?  How many times must we do this dance?  This is pretty much trolling at this point.

[Msalgado]

I'm going to have to word this stronger than Chubb did. 

 

It's one month. That's how. A f****ing 8 year old could answer that question. 

 

Also, NCEP reanalysis is on a different baseline so it's not remotely comparable. Again 8 year old material.

 

And finally, the CFS has an identified error and was not designed as a long-term measure or indicator of global temperature. Again, 8 year old material. Except you've been explained this before, so really you are just a liar.

 

Sorry, not going to use the kid gloves on you. You should be embarrassed to post such stupid nonsense.

 

He's had this all explained to him before.  He's not interested in learning and acknowledging this but rather just rehashing the same stupid arguments over and over again.

[Msalgado]

Well, the solar theory isn't completely debunked because we only had one low cycle and it did coinicide with cooling in the 2007-2009 La Nina...periods like the Maunder had multiple cycles of low activity that probably had a somewhat cumulative effect.

Plus, volcanic activity has been low since Pinatubo.

 

Nope.  Solar is a measured entity.  We know how much radiation the sun is putting out and ho much if varies over a solar cycle and its simply too low.  We have had other explanations for the slower warming.  You're characterization on volcanic activity is incorrect, as well.

[nzucker]

Nope. Solar is a measured entity. We know how much radiation the sun is putting out and ho much if varies over a solar cycle and its simply too low. We have had other explanations for the slower warming. You're characterization on volcanic activity is incorrect, as well.

Obviously not all the warming is attributable to solar and volcanic activity...there is an anthropogenic component. But you can't expect a lot of cooling from one solar minimum after 150 years of high activity, at least not more than the standard .2C adjustment from peak to trough. The Maunder and Dalton were composed of many cycles, all lower than average. I'm sure there's cumulative radiative and albedo effects.

We have not had a climate influencing eruption since Pintabo in 1991. There was El Chichon in the 80s and the 1800s had a much stronger event in Tambora.

[nzucker]

Except the surface cooling was almost entirely attributable to the La Nina and huge surge in global winds. The earth continued to warm rapidly at an incomprehensibly high rate.

It was a very low minimum and a very weak peak. And not only was the earth still hot, it continued getting hotter. Now if the implication is that the cooling didn't start because it's only been one very weak cycle, well that's just wishful thinking and stupidity because there is no remotely plausible physical mechanism that would delay the onset of cooling that long. Instead, the earth continued gaining immense amounts of thermal energy.

Plus, think about how science works. AGW people said the earth would continue gaining heat during a strong solar minimum. The deniers said it would be the commencement of the long awaited cooling (they also said the PDO flip would do that). Science is about making predictions and testing them. When the prediction is correct, it corroborates the hypothesis.

Yes, volcanic activity has been below average. However, the global dimming of aerosols has probably masked nearly 1C of warming.

But you also admit that the earth's radiative imbalance declined from +.8W/m2 to around .5 so that does mean something allowed the planet to decrease its energy gain. Whether it is solar or aerosol related we don't exactly know.

[skierinvermont]

But you also admit that the earth's radiative imbalance declined from +.8W/m2 to around .5 so that does mean something allowed the planet to decrease its energy gain. Whether it is solar or aerosol related we don't exactly know.

 

Even if those numbers are correct, and I'm not so sure they are, that means that all low solar activity did is temporarily slightly slow the warming. 

 

So unless solar activity got even lower, the higher rate of warming would resume shortly.