2016 Global Temperatures

[nflwxman]

From Gareth Jones' UK Met Office twitter. Looks like obs are through 2015.

modelgarethjones.jpg

 

Exactly and if you look at the model suite, there are plenty of months/years that have fallen outside the "central 50%" confidence range in the past. My concern continues to be that these "stair steps" in global temperatures will become larger with time and additional feedbacks.  This current immediate jump in global temperatures (yes there will be a moderate drop in 2017) appears to be larger than that of 1997-1998.  This could have a signficant impact on many climate zones in the next 5-10 years.

[SVT450R]

UAH V5.6 came in at 0.90 for February up 0.28 from January making it the warmest month on record.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not sure that I buy an enso rebound heading into this Nino.

That rebound would have been well underway by 2012.

Infact going by the oni index. We saw almost weak nino conditions in 2012 before an even longer negative drop in 2013/14 before our slow ascension into this nino.

But a major help in pushing global temps upwards was the massive warming of the NPAC and NATL that really went beserk in 2013 onwards.

But even 2012 in late summer had a tongue of huge anomalies coinciding with short lived weak nino conditions.

By August of 2013 global ssta were just below 97/98 nino levels.

By 2014 summer they touched that level.

However since they were driven in higher late there wasn't associated convection.

But their impact was felt in the surface temp record.

So I'd say that the warming between 30N and the pole was seperate from enso.

2012 was close to nino for a few months before the oni index with negative again for 16 months in a row. And at 0C or below for 20 months.

Yet during that time each year in succession. 2012-2014 was warmer than the last with 2014 tying the record warmest even tho it started with weak Nina conditions.

OHC also rose sharply during that period in spite of variable enso conditions.

Given how the SH is looking attm. I doubt OHC drops much if at all.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't know much about what happens now. The enso sub surface has been depleted of heat substantially.

Recently a decent WWB has helped keep things going.

However on the Southern side of the equator. Two massive and long WWBs have helped cause major warming. And sea level analysis shows a stronger warm pool on the Southern side.

[chubbs]

I agree with the statement about the big picture. Any time we talk about annual or even a decade of temperature we are really micro-analyzing because we don't have a good understanding of what affects temperature on an annual or even decadal scale. However, by micro-analyzing it like this perhaps we can learn something. We can't simply dismiss variation from the trend as meaningless. Either there is a physical cause, or the data is wrong.

 

If you exclude 2016, the 10 year trend is much lower than it was before. Either the data is wrong, or there is a 3rd variable other than AGW and my simplistic ENSO-correction. Or more likely, many 3rd variables. 

 

So the question is, is the spike in my chart in 2016 temporary or permanent? My guess is that it is somewhat temporary and is due to this ENSO being stronger than the ONI would indicate. That's an effect that would disappear when we revert  to Nina conditions.

Your chart indicates that there is some memory from year-to-year in the enso corrected values i.e if a year is below (above) the trendline the next year also is likely to be below (above). I also think there will be some lingering warming effects from the super nino - so my guess is that enso corrected temperatures will remain above the trendline for several years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Thanks to El Nino:

That's impressive.

February 2016: 404.02 ppm

February 2015: 400.26 ppm

Last updated: March 7, 2016

Looks more methane also gets an enso bump.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Picked this up from Bob Tisdales blog.

It shows what I was talking about earlier. There is a warm pool just South of the equator that the TAO graphic doesn't show because it only shows 2n-2s.

But that is a pretty heavy duty area of heat.

Here is another view showing two areas almost splitting the equator

[bluewave]

The other interesting thing about this El Nino event was that the PDO was the third strongest

on record during 2015. In fact, it was the strongest annual +PDO since the 1980's.

We can trace this impressive PDO rise to the intense North Pacific blocking warming the

North Pacific SST's during the summer of 2013.

 

https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/animation-3.gif

 

 

 

 

[chubbs]

Yes the PDO swinging from negative to positive has played a role in the temperature surge. Feb value in at 1.75

 

The other interesting thing about this El Nino event was that the PDO was the third strongest

on record during 2015. In fact, it was the strongest annual +PDO since the 1980's.

We can trace this impressive PDO rise to the intense North Pacific blocking warming the

North Pacific SST's during the summer of 2013.

[bluewave]

Yes the PDO swinging from negative to positive has played a role in the temperature surge. Feb value in at 1.75

 

 

That's what it finally took to weaken the historic trade wind regime which had dominated the global climate from 1998-2013.

 

[chubbs]

GISS 1.35 in February.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No way!

1.35C+

That's unreal. Just unreal!

[csnavywx]

No way!

1.35C+

That's unreal. Just unreal!

Yeah, I was thinking 1.25 or so. That's really high. We'll have to see if it sticks over the next few months. DJF was 1.20 (0.81 for S. Hem and 1.90 for N. Hem) or 0.51C above DJF 97-98.

 

2016 might be a contender for a 1.0C annual average on GISS at this rate.

[The_Global_Warmer]

For anyone wondering.

Using renoylds V2 ssts: 1.26C+

Using Ersst V3: 1.27C+

ErsstV4: 1.35C+

So even before the so called pause busting warming the Feb monthly would have been ridiculous.

[chubbs]

From Chris Colose twitter - enso corrected GISS relative to a 1880-1909 mean

[chubbs]

GFS shows continued cooling for the next week. So we probably passed the surface temperature peak for this nino. March headed for 2nd place behind Feb at this point.

[wolfpackmet]

JMA also comes in at warmest February on record.  April is the last month on this data-set that still has a record from 1998 (tied with April of 2014).

[The_Global_Warmer]

The equatorial zonal wind forecasts show the death of this nino is about to accelerate.

However I wouldn't expect surface temps to drop overly fast with how warm the SH is. And the arctic amplification season is about to get underway.

How things progress during the almost certain LA nina will be very interesting.

As well as upper ocean ohc. Which currently correlate to roughly 0.2C above the 2003-2010 average with enso neutral conditions.

So roughly .75-.80C+ on GISS.

[skierinvermont]

From Chris Colose twitter - enso corrected GISS relative to a 1880-1909 mean

gissenso.jpg

 

Again suggesting the spike has been strong due to a Nino. Still not certain if this extra large bounce is due to something temporary related to the Nino (or a deficiency in the correction) or if it is a more permanent product of AGW.

 

Seems more likely to be the former because I don't think it's a coincidence this bounce is occurring the same time as a super Nino.

[chubbs]

Again suggesting the spike has been strong due to a Nino. Still not certain if this extra large bounce is due to something temporary related to the Nino (or a deficiency in the correction) or if it is a more permanent product of AGW.

 

Seems more likely to be the former because I don't think it's a coincidence this bounce is occurring the same time as a super Nino.

In the short-term it is impossible to tell. Given the radiative imbalance, added heat from the nino will linger in the atmosphere - so there will be a warming bias on temperature trend lines for quite some time even if the long-term warming trend remains stable.

[skierinvermont]

In the short-term it is impossible to tell. Given the radiative imbalance, added heat from the nino will linger in the atmosphere - so there will be a warming bias on temperature trend lines for quite some time even if the long-term warming trend remains stable.

 

Heat doesn't just escape up, it can escape down into the oceans very very quickly and in large quantities. It all depends if we return to whatever regime was depressing global temperature before this Nino (possible the strong tropical trade wind regime) or if this is a regime change.

 

However, it does seem that the heat from the 1998 Nino lingered.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Hovmollers on mike Ventrices site say that the Eastern Indian ocean and the far West Pacific and the water the N Australia area and Indonesia is going to warm even further the next few weeks.

We will probably see record high ssts there.

While the nino slowly decays they have backed off big time on strong trades.

[The_Global_Warmer]

A weak trade Regime will still eventually bring Nina conditions to Eastern Epac.

But going into peak insolation period a normal trade regime will be slow to eradicate the warm surface waters. But the colder water will mix and basically both the cold pool and warm pool will dissolve towards normal.

If that happens or we get a weak Nina.

The West pacific warm pool could be essentially back by next Feb-March.

The current cold pool is relatively weak for how huge this nino was.

Which is pretty strange and could be a sign that radiative forcing has noticibly increased.

[chubbs]

Heat doesn't just escape up, it can escape down into the oceans very very quickly and in large quantities. It all depends if we return to whatever regime was depressing global temperature before this Nino (possible the strong tropical trade wind regime) or if this is a regime change.

 

However, it does seem that the heat from the 1998 Nino lingered.

Well yes the ocean is taking up much more heat than the atmosphere year-after-year but in a nino the ocean takes up a little less. Its all a balance. Less heat in the atmosphere leads to a larger radiative imbalance. So it gets harder to sustain. As soon as the trade winds slacken the atmosphere warms. This nino looks like a Kevin Trenberth stair step warming, similar to 98. It won't hold these levels but it won't go back to pre-nino conditions either.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Chubbs can u post the most recent 0-100M ohc time series???

[The_Global_Warmer]

Two very large warm pools splitting the equator.

And the Indian ocean is boiling.

They are double the size of the West PAC cool pools and more anomolous.

They are going somewhere.

That's what matters. They will warm the atmosphere or warm the upper oceans.

[chubbs]

Chubbs can u post the most recent 0-100M ohc time series???

Here is the latest ocean 0-100m T anomaly thru end-2015.

[skierinvermont]

Well yes the ocean is taking up much more heat than the atmosphere year-after-year but in a nino the ocean takes up a little less. Its all a balance. Less heat in the atmosphere leads to a larger radiative imbalance. So it gets harder to sustain. As soon as the trade winds slacken the atmosphere warms. This nino looks like a Kevin Trenberth stair step warming, similar to 98. It won't hold these levels but it won't go back to pre-nino conditions either.

 

If the global trade winds, or whatever else was suppressing global temperatures resume, then temperatures will return close to what they were before. The amount of heat pushed into the atmosphere by this Nino is negligible compared to the oceans capacity to absorb it.

[chubbs]

If the global trade winds, or whatever else was suppressing global temperatures resume, then temperatures will return close to what they were before. The amount of heat pushed into the atmosphere by this Nino is negligible compared to the oceans capacity to absorb it.

Agree the atmospheric heat is negligible, but per chart above, the top 100m of the oceans have also warmed. I could see a hiatus but not a return to pre-nino conditions.

[chubbs]

NMME is forecasting weak nina conditions with lingering +PDO in October. Oct 1998 had moderate nina with negative PDO. Considerable uncertainty on ENSO/PDO evolution in 2016 but odds favor a more gradual shift to negative ENSO/PDO vs 1998