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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air .

This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 .

 

Not only does wave 1 snow  (  4 - 6 at KNYC   ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says  it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP .

 

The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB.

Wave 2 .

 

The CPC had it abnormally cold & wet in the east on their March 1 -10 outlook 5 days ago; they are very seldom wrong. 

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And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air .

This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 .

Not only does wave 1 snow ( 4 - 6 at KNYC ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP .

The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB.

Wave 2 .f84.gif

Upton has it approaching 50 degrees on Wednesday even up in Rockland county with heavy rain
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Upton has it approaching 50 degrees on Wednesday even up in Rockland county with heavy rain

Yep its possible , but hang in there . There may be a thump on the front with this .

 

There is rain with wave 2 . But we would want to see it weaker so the energy left behind would be stronger for wave 3  .

 

Wait until Monday and see if this starts to cool or look more strung out .

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Yep its possible , but hang in there . There may be a thump on the front with this .

There is rain with wave 2 . But we would want to see it weaker so the energy left behind would be stronger for wave 3 .

Wait until Monday and see if this starts to cool or look more strung out .

With the screaming flow, I just don't see a really strong s/w cutting into the great Lakes region. There's nothing to slow the energy down right now and without an amped up s/w, it won't cut like the GFS and Euro have been showing. I see wave 2 as more of a SWFE that will bring the baroclynic zone for wave 3 in a potential favorable position for wintry weather.
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With the screaming flow, I just don't see a really strong s/w cutting into the great Lakes region. There's nothing to slow the energy down right now and without an amped up s/w, it won't cut like the GFS and Euro have been showing. I see wave 2 as more of a SWFE that will bring the  for wave 3 in a potential favorable position for wintry weather.

 

Right , these have trended further South  The NAM is the most aggressive with the front end . We do need to pull the baroclinic zone then wave 3 will be stronger and this precip will be further N .

As it is this is getting interesting . f126.gif

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We have seen the further N solutions trend S  and the S solution come further N since late Jan .

I am really liking the potential bookend threats here .

 

( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6  at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me .

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We have seen the further N solutions trend S and the S solution come further N since late Jan .

I am really liking the potential bookend threats here .

( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6 at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me .

What's also very interesting is the NAO trends. It looks as if it wants to go neutral right around the time wave 3 pops out towards the coast. Interesting.
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You kind of want the cutter to hang back so the next wave has a chance to amplify.

You don't want it to push the boundary too far to the east otherwise the following wave is an offshore deal.

Yes, but this is where the NAO trending neutral can be very beneficial. It may be just enough to slow everything down and give the s/w room to consolidate and amplify.
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We have seen the further N solutions trend S and the S solution come further N since late Jan .

I am really liking the potential bookend threats here .

( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6 at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me .

Now that we are into March with shorter wavelengths, wouldn't that argue that the pattern that trended all of these favorable back in January/early-mid February when he had long wavelengths, may not have the same result this time around with different wave spacing?
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Now that we are into March with shorter wavelengths, wouldn't that argue that the pattern that trended all of these favorable back in January/early-mid February when he had long wavelengths, may not have the same result this time around with different wave spacing?

I think wave 3 is the last in the series of these  SW in the pattern .

 

We will moderate once past day 10 . But we have 5 to 6 days of  this left in this pattern . The Sun Mon SW looks to be working out , I think the THRS SW has a chance .

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I think wave 3 is the last in the series of these SW in the pattern .

We will moderate once past day 10 . But we have 5 to 6 days of this left in this pattern . The Sun Mon SW looks to be working out , I think the THRS SW has a chance .

I tend to agree. I think Thursday will be it before we move to a spring pattern. Makes me want to watch in this even more closely as pattern changes can really go out with a bang.
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European appears to be slightly colder at the start of Tuesday wed time frame but QPF is spotty on the east side at 84 hr when the temperatures are still cold enough..Afterwards it warms up and it rains but it is a lot less rain then previous runs..

 

No Third wave on the Euro

?

The 3rd Wave it is in VA the Delmarva and SNJ . There is a wave , it is just S on the Euro .  ( for now )

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This is a frontal boundary pushing south all it is on the ECM..

 

attachicon.gifFront.jpg

 

attachicon.giffront2.jpg

 

attachicon.giffront3.jpg

Check out 114 then 120 . There is a wave there . If it was just a boundary it would just push SE .

There is LP there . The Euro is weaker than the GFS . But that kink N shows me at least there is something on that front and the precip runs from the TENN valley at 114 to the Delmarva at 120 .

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