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1/27 Winter Storm - Round 3 - Discussion Thread


Heisy

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I am not comparing the specific situation to 2001. It is a classic example of extreme solutions for a Miller "B" busting badly within 72 hours, even with other model support. It had nothing to do with what month it was. The UKMET and Canadian have both had their moments this winter. So, even if one throws out the GFS, there is other support for a more moderate solution for us (but a BIG storm for New England regardless).

 

Glenn

Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!!  What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO?  The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now.  Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall?  Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen??

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Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!!  What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO?  The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now.  Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall?  Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen??

The +NAO definitely makes me more skeptical, especially for a Miller "B". Perhaps our weather historians can remind me of a blizzard here with a +NAO/+AO pattern.

 

Glenn

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Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!!  What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO?  The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now.  Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall?  Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen??

Not claiming to be an expert but the Euro 12 Z depiction showed that the storm that just went through will provide enough blocking since there was such close proximity to the two storms. We'll see.

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Cautious optimism here.  Since moving out to the Lehigh Valley 11+ years ago, I've already lost count of how many Maulers have left us high and dry.  You can usually hear the energy whooshing overhead from west to east, but we're typically left with little to show for it.  It's not typically an ideal setup.  But hey - trends are made to be bucked, so let's do it. :)

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Cautious optimism here.  Since moving out to the Lehigh Valley 11+ years ago, I've already lost count of how many Maulers have left us high and dry.  You can usually hear the energy whooshing overhead from west to east, but we're typically left with little to show for it.  It's not typically an ideal setup.  But hey - trends are made to be bucked, so let's do it. :)

we need this a tad west

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