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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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5 hours ago, OHweather said:

2.7" this morning pushing me over 30" (about 32") on the year. Doesn't feel like it's been that much, though that is still probably abou but 10-15" below normal through January. I figure I average 75-80" per year out here. Would certainly be willing to meetup at some point. 

Sitting at 45.5" for the season here.  Really made up some ground the past week.  The past 3 February's have produced 30"+ of snow..... so we'll see how this one pans out.  Even if things don't look ideal, a few big lake effect events can sneak up.  

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11 hours ago, OHweather said:

2.7" this morning pushing me over 30" (about 32") on the year. Doesn't feel like it's been that much, though that is still probably abou but 10-15" below normal through January. I figure I average 75-80" per year out here. Would certainly be willing to meetup at some point. 

I'm at barely 10" for the season.  Picked up 1" last night (which is all gone now) bringing my total to a whopping 2" since the current "cold snap" began last Thursday.  Congrats to you guys out east that have cashed in on the LES.

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22 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

I'm at barely 10" for the season.  Picked up 1" last night (which is all gone now) bringing my total to a whopping 2" since the current "cold snap" began last Thursday.  Congrats to you guys out east that have cashed in on the LES.

You certainly need non-lake effect snow to cash in...and there's been very little of that this winter unfortunately.  Meanwhile places like Chesterland and Chardon may be sitting at 70" on the season and could see 100" if we see a few more good events.

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What a day out there... full sun and temps in the upper 40's. Sorry I jinxed the cold and snow by coming back to town. What's amazing is that the snow on the ground (at least IMBY) has been melting from beneath as the ground isn't frozen. The ground is remarkably soft for this time of the year. The long range is not looking great for cold and snow.

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7 hours ago, NEOH said:

What a day out there... full sun and temps in the upper 40's. Sorry I jinxed the cold and snow by coming back to town. What's amazing is that the snow on the ground (at least IMBY) has been melting from beneath as the ground isn't frozen. The ground is remarkably soft for this time of the year. The long range is not looking great for cold and snow.

Ya I've definitely been noticing the melting from underneath as well.  Surprised we didn't lose more snow today, but with tomorrow's near 60 and rain....it'll all be gone.

This Thursday system is kind of trending a little north.  Might be a low impact event.

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Looks like we will pull off an inch or two of synoptic snow this evening with the most falling inland. Wahoo! 

Minor LES event tomorrow with a NW flow but potent shortwave going by. Normally in this type of situation some snow showers make it in from Lake Michigan and can cause a nice burst in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt. Instability and moisture are good for a few hours tomorrow but it's brief. I think most areas will see an inch or two of LES, but someone who gets hit by the Lake MI enhanced bands could see a few inches in the higher terrain. Then it all melts again Saturday and Sunday. 

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25 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Looks like we will pull off an inch or two of synoptic snow this evening with the most falling inland. Wahoo! 

Minor LES event tomorrow with a NW flow but potent shortwave going by. Normally in this type of situation some snow showers make it in from Lake Michigan and can cause a nice burst in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt. Instability and moisture are good for a few hours tomorrow but it's brief. I think most areas will see an inch or two of LES, but someone who gets hit by the Lake MI enhanced bands could see a few inches in the higher terrain. Then it all melts again Saturday and Sunday. 

I'll have to look that up, but if we could get 2" that may be the largest synoptic snow of the season lol.  

What a year.   It's different from years past when this area felt like a synoptic snow hole...I think most Midwest areas are way below normal this year.  

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49 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

I'll have to look that up, but if we could get 2" that may be the largest synoptic snow of the season lol.  

What a year.   It's different from years past when this area felt like a synoptic snow hole...I think most Midwest areas are way below normal this year.  

You should have gotten 5 or 6" of synoptic on December 11...but it has largely been a synoptic snow wasteland this winter. I anticipate the month of March will come in snowier than normal but we will see how big or small the dent in the seasonal deficit is. 

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18 hours ago, OHweather said:

You should have gotten 5 or 6" of synoptic on December 11...but it has largely been a synoptic snow wasteland this winter. I anticipate the month of March will come in snowier than normal but we will see how big or small the dent in the seasonal deficit is. 

Ya forgot about that one, I did record 6".

1.5" overnight,  looks like winter again for a few days at least. 

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This is certainly turning into a much more frustrating winter than I would have thought last fall. It's been the winter of lake effect snows, but even that's been hit or miss. From about CLE and points west this winter has been an absolute dud. It's sad that this winter is only marginally snowier than last at CLE, and last winter actually had more substantial snow cover than this year. 

It's hard to imagine the kind of pattern we'd need just to hit normal snowfall this year. 44" more here on out seems like an impossible feat. I think it's a pretty safe bet that this will be another below normal snowfall year at CLE. This would mean 5 out of the last 6 winters had below normal snowfall at CLE. 

The only salvage to this winter would be a blockbuster storm in early March. 

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4 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like some lake effect tomorrow into Thursday.   Quick look at hi res nam and maybe .3 qpf .

After that it's a good week or so of 50s.

Looks like we'll be on the western fringe but yeah, we could see a short but decent les event. With full sun and the birds chirping is sure looks and feels like Spring out there. Sun angle is about the same as late October so it feels nice with clear skies. I'm about ready to close the book on this Winter.

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This upcoming LES does not have me impressed.  Short fetch with marginal instability and pretty low inversion heights. Moisture is ok at times and the window is pretty long from tomorrow afternoon into Thursday afternoon so there could be just enough snow to plow.  An upstream connection to the upper lakes could affect the Cleveland metro or Geauga County at times and a Huron connection should go into NW PA at times.  I'm thinking 1-4" in the higher terrain of NE OH including the secondary Snowbelt...less than an inch closer to the lake...and 3-6" in the higher terrain of NW PA with less near the lake. This is a marginal advisory event for NW PA and sub-advisory for NE OH IMO.  I struggle to see anyone in NW PA seeing 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours which is what is needed for a warning.  Conversely I don't expect anyone in NE OH to see 4" in 12 hours or 6" in 24 hours for an advisory. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Looks like we'll be on the western fringe but yeah, we could see a short but decent les event. With full sun and the birds chirping is sure looks and feels like Spring out there. Sun angle is about the same as late October so it feels nice with clear skies. I'm about ready to close the book on this Winter.

Ya after mid 50s and sun this upcoming weekend I'm sure spring fever will really be kicking. 

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