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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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2 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Wow cograts!  Depending what develops behind this band, I wonder if we see 10-12" totals somewhere?   These overachievers are the best.  

I don't expect much behind this band until maybe one last burst this eveningbut some areas should be close to 10". There was a ton of instability with this event...I really thought with the short fetch and changable winds that while everyone would see a nice accumulation that widespread 6"+ would be hard to do. 

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Definitely a nice snowfall after a month of nothing. Probably ended up with 3.5" closer to the lake. We'll see if CLE was able to edge out 6".

Once again lake effect saves the day. I'd imagine the synoptic snowfall this winter is closer to 5-7" for the entire season for areas on the west side. 

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It's amazing what warm ground + sun angle does to lake effect snow this time of year even with temperatures in the mid 20s and mostly cloudy skies. It was incredible to see 2.5" of snow on the ground go to essentially patches by late afternoon. 

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13 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Next weekend is starting to look interesting.   Still too early though.  Liking the active march so far.  

I really hope March can redeem this winter. Something's gotta pan out the next 10 days.

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We have 3 distinct threats between Thursday and Tuesday, but none of them are close to what I'd call a slam dunk.

The first threat is Thursday night into Friday morning...this threat appears to be most likely to miss to our north, but with a strong -NAO trying to keep cold air in place over the NE I don't want to discount the GFS runs that give us a shot of snow, not yet at least.  The next threat is Saturday-Sunday.  This appears to be more robust shortwave and has the chance to produce a more formidable amount of precip wherever it goes.  The Atlantic side blocking will really be well-established by this point so I'm beginning to doubt a miss to our north and rain, however we need just enough of a ridge on the west coast to allow the storm to drop down into the Plains and intensify, otherwise the strong -NAO and displaced polar vortex over Hudson Bay squash that threat to our south.  No western ridge and we either get no storm or perhaps a cutter in the face of the -NAO, too much western ridge and it could turn into the big storm for the east coast while staying to our south, so we need something in the middle.  The third threat is Monday night through Tuesday as another robust shortwave appears to round the base of the polar vortex and try to amplify.  Heights are lowering on the west coast in this time frame suggesting the risk for a cutter may be increased, though whatever is left of the weekend storm may act as a 50/50 low and keep this storm from cutting if the weekend storm can intensify enough.

So we have three threats and I could see how any one hits us or whiffs altogether.  I'd say a reasonable hope is for one threat to give at least an advisory snow with maybe some lake effect at times through early next week.  Some GFS runs have hit us with 2 or 3 and drop a ton of snow.  The Atlantic side pattern is conducive for big storms over the east, but the Pacific is being more uncooperative, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. 

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I think what's most impressive about this winter is the general lack of system snowfall in the lower Great Lakes.   CLE's largest non lake effect snow of the season was a measly 2.3" back in early December (I had a hair less IMBY)! It's easy to see how Chicago has had an epic snow drought since December, remove our lake snows and we'd be in the same boat. 

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Still plenty of uncertainty regarding our 3 potential systems.  Thursday night's system has trended a bit better, but there's still disagreement over the timing and intensity of the developing low.  A slower/stronger solution like the NAM occurring overnight Thursday night could drop a widespread 2-4", while something quicker like the GFS would have less QPF with some of that falling during the late afternoon Thursday, possibly keeping accums to just an inch or so.  The Saturday night-Sunday system looks more likely to miss south...there's still time to come back north, but with a strongly confluent upper level flow over the NE ahead of the system we'd want the shortwave to trend both stronger and slower for us to have a shot at a good north trend.  Possible but certainly not a given.  The early week system has trended a bit weaker and north, and that one is starting to look more like a non-starter before we warm up later next week. 

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Tomorrow night's snow is looking interesting on a few of the high res models. Perhaps we can score a last minute over performer? Or this could just as easily be a complete whiff for the region. 

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10 minutes ago, Trent said:

Tomorrow night's snow is looking interesting on a few of the high res models. Perhaps we can score a last minute over performer? Or this could just as easily be a complete whiff for the region. 

Ya the short range nams look like 2-4 easily.  Early next week is interesting too....but too early. 

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7 hours ago, NEOH said:

Bad combo of wet soil and high winds today. Lot's of tree's down... lost one large tree imby already.

Hope there wasn't any damage.   Definitely alot of trees and trees down.  Just some smaller limbs for me.  Power went off and on a few times.  Kind of puzzling we weren't under a high wind warning.   The duration and frequency of the gusts were pretty incredible.   Probably didn't quite meet the sustained criteria .  Saw that Youngstown had a 70 mpH gust though! 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Hope there wasn't any damage.   Definitely alot of trees and trees down.  Just some smaller limbs for me.  Power went off and on a few times.  Kind of puzzling we weren't under a high wind warning.   The duration and frequency of the gusts were pretty incredible.   Probably didn't quite meet the sustained criteria .  Saw that Youngstown had a 70 mpH gust though! 

CLE needed to extend the warning a county or two south. Gusts of over 58MPH occurred down to route 30 which is warning criteria. Drove thru a nice stretch of no power in Solon on my way home from work. 

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7 hours ago, Trent said:

After quite a bit of waffling the past few days, it seems the 12z guidance is once again south for the snow tonight. I think we'll be lucky to get a half inch at this point. 

Yep, really looking minor.  Looks like we'll be below freezing for several days, hopefully can get a good snow at some point.  Early week still looking good.  Wonder if there's some lake effect too? 

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28 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep, really looking minor.  Looks like we'll be below freezing for several days, hopefully can get a good snow at some point.  Early week still looking good.  Wonder if there's some lake effect too? 

QPF tonight is probably 0.05-.1" inches liquid, so with the warm ground and light rates, we're looking at a light coating on grassy surfaces at best.

Could be some decent lake enhancement with the storm next week, but I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

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Lake effect conditions briefly improve Friday for a few hours. Maybe some nice squalls but additional accums will be under an inch. 

The early week potential has gradually trended better in terms of a potential light to moderate synoptic snow followed by lake enhanced snow.  If we can keep it on the models another couple of days without it starting to trend worse like everything else this winter I'll start getting pretty excited. 

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Picked up anywhere between a trace and 0.1" of snow overnight. This was on 0.04" liquid IMBY. It really only stuck to the rooftops and cars.

I think this is a case where the observer at CLE just wrote down 0.4" because 0.04" liquid fell. There's no way they picked up that with temps at 36. Webcams confirm the lack of snow on the ground there. Nonetheless, another synoptic dud.

At this point, if a widespread 2-4" of snow were to fall on Tuesday, it would be epic by this winter's standards. If is the key word there. 

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3 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

Models kept waffling back and forth south of I-80. It looked like a last minute whiff, but my parents in Youngstown picked up a nice 4". 

IMG_0259.JPG

Good pic!  Late season plasters always make for good pics. 

Speaking of plasters ....GFS continues to tease us lol.  

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