Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,108
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
 Share

Recommended Posts

Clipper / lake enhancement are looking a bit more interesting late tonight through Sunday afternoon...the strongest lift with the clipper will probably be somewhere south of US 30, perhaps towards I-70. Could be a quick 2-4" of fluffy snow down there. I think north of US 30 we get a quick 1-2" with the clipper on Sunday. The exception is lake enhanced / effect snow. A decent west-east convergence band looks to develop late tonight into Erie County and then gradually push south into Sunday, probably getting into NE Cuyahoga, Lake, and northern Geauga before breaking up into more disorganized multi-bands through Sunday afternoon that will wind down Sunday evening. 

The lake enhanced band may be quite intense with the synoptic snow from the clipper on top of strong convergence, EL heights of 7-8k feet, a light flow and very good snow growth yet again, especially into Erie and Chautauqua Counties. Could see 2" per hour rates. The band will gradually push through, but spots may get close to or more than the 6" warning criteria quickly before it sags inland. Could see a need to expand advisories into more of the primary NE Ohio Snowbelt too, but the band will be weakening slowly and moving a bit quicker here...however, between the synoptic snow and lake enhanced band sagging in could see the route 6 corridor getting 3-5" in less than 12 hours which would warrant a headline. We shall see! 

The best of Monday's clipper may go to our north but we should all get some more snow. 

YNG hit -9 and HZY hit -11. Had a co-op in northwestern Crawford County PA that hit -15 this morning. Many backyard wx stations -10 to -15F in rural areas from Summit, Geauga and Stark Cos points east, with a few cold spots in Ashtabula Co getting to near -20F. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NWS here in Summit just issued a Hazardous Outlook.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

OHZ003-006>011-013-018>023-033-PAZ003-231900-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Mahoning-Crawford-
158 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A clipper system will bring widespread light snow for northern Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania late tonight into Sunday. 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall is possible for much of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A clipper system will bring widespread light snow for northern Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania through Sunday evening. 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall is possible for much of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

 

My area is forecast 1-3 Sunday and 1-3 Monday. So here's looking at 2-6 inches by Monday night!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty sure we could just expand the advisory for Sunday to the entire CWA at this point...this is coming in more amped / north and the 0z hi-res models like 3-5" (locally a bit more with some LES) for all of northern OH now. Should be a nice fluff factor along with a brief period of moderate to heavy rates.

Early stuff looks a bit south with Monday's clipper, perhaps due to Sunday's being a little stronger in front of it. The NAM has some LES behind the Monday clipper and a bit more LES Tuesday night into Wednesday, assuming there's enough moisture flux through the ice on the lake by that point. This could be trending to quite a snowy few days for northern OH into NW PA! 

808279607_snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f02400(1).thumb.png.c76b7bbbefa3006c05d60e61bb212224.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got 4.5-5” of fluffy snow in Reminderville. The hills of the secondary Snowbelt in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina and northwestern Summit got 6-8”. Another event that came in on the high side in what has quickly become a very snowy stretch for our area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Got 4.5-5” of fluffy snow in Reminderville. The hills of the secondary Snowbelt in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina and northwestern Summit got 6-8”. Another event that came in on the high side in what has quickly become a very snowy stretch for our area. 

What are your thoughts for Northern Ohio for this next clipper??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

What are your thoughts for Northern Ohio for this next clipper??

Enough lift for a quick shot of moderate snow. I like 1-3" for most of northern and central OH, though feel 1-2" is more common than 3" since it's quick moving and the lift is noticeably weaker than today's system. However, it'll briefly snow pretty decent from west to east late morning into the afternoon. 

Could be a freezing drizzle concern Monday evening across Ohio as the low-levels look moist ahead of a cold front but the mid-levels will be dry. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Radar looks good for several hours of steady light to moderate snow across all of northern OH with this clipper today. I feel a little more optimistic, feel like 2-3" amounts will be more common than 1" amounts. I don't think it'll snow hard enough to get too much more but it's looking like a solid little event. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Agree! 80-90 seems to be the jackpot for this one.  Amazing how these don't really show their hands until the last minute.  

What kind of quality is the snow out there? Findlay and Toledo are reporting 1/2 to 3/4 mile visibility which is pretty decent, are the flakes the bigger ones that can stack up quicker? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, OHweather said:

What kind of quality is the snow out there? Findlay and Toledo are reporting 1/2 to 3/4 mile visibility which is pretty decent, are the flakes the bigger ones that can stack up quicker? 

Exactly as you described.  Returns are lining up right along 80-90 from Chicago to Cleveland...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Solid light snow (but with smallish flakes) here right now too, started in the last half hour or so. If it does this until 7 or 8 PM and we grind out 2 or 3" I'd take it. Just adding to the pack at this point. 

Same here.  Is the overnight 1-3 fc coming from lake effect?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Same here.  Is the overnight 1-3 fc coming from lake effect?

It is yes. It's not a great set-up, but there should be an uptick for several hours late tonight into early tomorrow and there will likely be some light accumulations in the Cleveland area and Snowbelt. Tomorrow night into Wednesday morning is actually a pretty good looking set-up for the primary snowbelt with a W or WNW flow and I think it'd easily be an advisory to warning event for Lake and northern Geauga on east, but we'll see if there's sufficient moisture flux through the increasing ice on the lake for that. There will be some LES either way, but I'm not sure if the ice will keep it in check. Seems like a pretty good set-up with a decently high inversion, light and well-aligned flow, and a good amount of moisture from Lake Michigan.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Solid light snow (but with smallish flakes) here right now too, started in the last half hour or so. If it does this until 7 or 8 PM and we grind out 2 or 3" I'd take it. Just adding to the pack at this point. 

Back and forth from light to moderate snow but the heavier returns are moving in. Just over an inch so far. This snow seems much more dense than yesterday. Wonder if the snow will last until the evening as the back edge looks to be in western ohio. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It does seem the snow moved through on the quick side...we may or may not have gotten to 2" here (I haven't measured and probably won't today), though it's close. Already some light freezing rain / mist being reported in north-central and northwest OH, hoping the snow and treatment for it that we got today prevents issues with that as it's quite cold with temps in the mid 20s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It does seem the snow moved through on the quick side...we may or may not have gotten to 2" here (I haven't measured and probably won't today), though it's close. Already some light freezing rain / mist being reported in north-central and northwest OH, hoping the snow and treatment for it that we got today prevents issues with that as it's quite cold with temps in the mid 20s.

Definitely faster than modeled. Looks like the last batch is forming out west and moving east. Almost a convective nature to the snow right now. It dumps large flakes under some of these returns. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...