blizzardof96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We'll see about that. Are you still expecting a quicker dry air intrusion then the models are currently advertising? I guess the forecast battle is on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Are you still expecting a quicker dry air intrusion then the models are currently advertising? I guess the forecast battle is on... Yeah. After 2 decades of doing this, the last winter or two I've finally caught on that it's a bias of almost all the models to under do the aggressiveness of mid-level dry slots. Low-res model QPF output maps aren't going to usually pick up on it. But even still it's pretty evident on the RGEM for instance.... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah. After 2 decades of doing this, the last winter or two I've finally caught on that it's a bias of almost all the models to under do the aggressiveness of mid-level dry slots. Low-res model QPF output maps aren't going to usually pick up on it. But even still it's pretty evident on the RGEM for instance.... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Still early, but the HRRR looks like its in your camp. That mid level dry tongue is much more aggressive then previous runs from this aft. Waiting on consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 HRRR has been rock solid with 1-3" amounts for the GTA. That dry tongue is aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 HRRR has been rock solid with 1-3" amounts for the GTA. That dry tongue is aggressive. hrrr_t_precip_ne_16.png In contrast, latest NAM has shifted the pivot point of the defo band to the east, and now has it stalling right over Toronto. Would be looking at 15cm easy if that verified but I'm not buying it at this point. It's the NAM after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Interesting trend with the 00z NAM (regular and 4km) and the 18z hi-res RGEM (2.5 km HRDPS). They all show a decent deformation band tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. This is after the initial east to west band moves thru in the morning rush. The NAM now shows 6"+ snow in total for the GTA. Even the 12z Euro shows some QPF lingering into the evening hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I think we are in a good position when compared to SSC or others in the west end/downtown areas. Its a tough forecast but will probably end up in the 7-15cm range where we are and then more like 5-10cm downtown IMO. In terms of the GB Lehs, its def there as winds are in a nice direction(~340-350). Would be nice if winds backed just a little bit more although you can see that either way the bay is helping ramp up QPF into the N GTA on the high res models. Still nothing in northeast Scarborough. I'm guessing this won't start until after midnight now. My final call is 2-4" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Still nothing in northeast Scarborough. I'm guessing this won't start until after midnight now. My final call is 2-4" for Toronto. Took the whole day to get from a Belleville-Rochester axis to a Peterborough-St. Catharines axis. I'm thinking 1-2am as a start time for the --SN, though you may see it a wee bit earlier out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Good luck Toronto and southern ON peeps. 0z NAM and 4km NAM total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 My take away from the 0z NAM is that the redevelopment east of the defo band is a factor later on in the day. The RGEM is no longer on its own with this evolution. Tricky 'cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Good luck Toronto and southern ON peeps. 0z NAM and 4km NAM total QPF. nam 36 hr total qpf.png 4km nam toronto.png Thanks for the well wishes and the graphics Tim. 'specially like the sliver of 0.60"+ right over my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Took the whole day to get from a Belleville-Rochester axis to a Peterborough-St. Catharines axis. I'm thinking 1-2am as a start time for the --SN, though you may see it a wee bit earlier out your way. Looks like the heaviest snow will be during the morning commute after all. Good luck Toronto and southern ON peeps. 0z NAM and 4km NAM total QPF. nam 36 hr total qpf.png 4km nam toronto.png Thanks Chicago WX. Hopefully it won't be too long before you guys are tracking a storm in your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Not a problem guys. I'll be living vicariously through you all. Hopefully it overachieves. And take/post photos of course, if things go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Snowfall warnings are finally up for Ottawa and Kingston. EC is late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 RAP/GFS now onboard with the return eastward of the defo band but 0z RGEM has since dropped this evolution. Models clearly struggling a lot with this and it does have big implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 RAP/GFS now onboard with the return eastward of the defo band but 0z RGEM has since dropped this evolution. Models clearly struggling a lot with this and it does have big implications. 6z RGEM will probably bring it back models tend to struggle when trying to pin point where the defo will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm going with 6-9 cm for the GTA. I don't think that second round of snow is going to pack much of a punch. Can't wait tomorrow's usual routine of slant sticking and "this storm caught drivers off guard, EC is to blame for everything ever" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm going with 6-9 cm for the GTA. I don't think that second round of snow is going to pack much of a punch. have a reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 have a reason why? RGEM is usually pretty good at picking up moisture drying up. Wouldn't be surprised to see the dry air from the north eat away at some of that moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 RGEM is usually pretty good at picking up moisture drying up. Wouldn't be surprised to see the dry air from the north eat away at some of that moisture. The 18z RGEM was indicating what the NAM and GFS say now. We'll see what happens. Should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 18z RGEM was indicating what the NAM and GFS say now. We'll see what happens. Should be interesting GFS says 4" RAP says 4" RGEM says 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 GFS says 4" RAP says 4" RGEM says 3" Latest HRRR has 4" and so does the RUC. We'll see how it all plays out in the coming hours. Precipitation should move into the GTA by 3-4am with the heaviest rates during the morning rush hour. Sadly I have an exam tomorrow too. Last one, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Even under these lame returns here in the west end, visibility is down and already a dusting. OB probably in paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Already approaching an inch of accumulation here. Not ready to declare a bust yet but my call's in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Moderate snow and blowing snow. Eyeballing we're nearing 2" (so about 1"/hr rates). This keeps up I'm doing a Jeb walk later this morning. Dryslot evident on King City radar though. Already approaching Oshawa. NAM/GFS basically halt it though just east of the city. We'll see what the hi-res models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Moderate snow and blowing snow. Eyeballing we're nearing 2" (so about 1"/hr rates). This keeps up I'm doing a Jeb walk later this morning. Dryslot evident on King City radar though. Already approaching Oshawa. NAM/GFS basically halt it though just east of the city. We'll see what the hi-res models say. Enjoy! Here it's just a cold (-9 C) star lite sky here with just a dusting (5 mm) of snow still around from yesterday mornings snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Probably closing in on 3" here just eyeballing it. Snowing like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Not a problem guys. I'll be living vicariously through you all. Hopefully it overachieves. And take/post photos of course, if things go well. I echo Tim's thoughts. I've been watching the models move precip west and slightly increase moisture over the past few days. Hope you all enjoy what you're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Moderate snow and blowing snow. Eyeballing we're nearing 2" (so about 1"/hr rates). This keeps up I'm doing a Jeb walk later this morning. Dryslot evident on King City radar though. Already approaching Oshawa. NAM/GFS basically halt it though just east of the city. We'll see what the hi-res models say. After a little break in returns around 13z, the HRRR/RAP are showing on a second surge of SN as the band begins to build back east, especially in the NW end of the city. GB is helping out big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Snowfall warnings are finally up for Ottawa and Kingston. EC is late to the party. Cancelled 4 hrs later. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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