WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 By the looks of it, our chances with the Feb 1-2nd storm are dwindling with each run. Turd winter. Seems like we have a decent chance of 10 cm. Your 70 cm call for this winter is really in danger it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Radar filling in nicely again. Looks like the dry slot won't last too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like we have a decent chance of 10 cm. Your 70 cm call for this winter is really in danger it seems... As mentioned in the main storm thread by Chicago Storm, this system won't be fully sampled by Saturday. Plus, there are a few 12z GFS ensemble members that are pretty juiced up for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like we have a decent chance of 10 cm. Your 70 cm call for this winter is really in danger it seems... hmm. What's this about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Almost every operational run today, expect UKMET, has been south of our region. Starting to see a small consensus among global models regarding the track. Hopefully we get a better understanding by tonight's 0z and tomorrow's 12z runs, but as I said earlier, our chances are dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 hmm. What's this about? For the Sunday Monday system there have been some members with 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For the Sunday Monday system there have been some members with 4"+ I think you're stretching the definition of "decent". It's a long shot attm. Did you see the EURO ensembles that buckeye posted? I think one out of 51 was a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For the Sunday Monday system there have been some members with 4"+ Unless some major changes happen tonight, my "70cm call" you spoke about earlier is still running good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Unless some major changes happen tonight, my "70cm call" you spoke about earlier is still running good. lol, that wasn't a call. You said "best case" 70cm, as if it were a 20:1 shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Light snow continues to fall with bursts of moderate snow mixed in. Probably AOA 2" by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone have the seasonal snowfall total for KW or Guelph? I unfortunately haven't been keeping track this winter due to moving homes etc. The reason I ask is that at this point I might be shooting for futility this winter. This has to be one of the least snowiest winters in years. Don't think we've had an event of more than 10cm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just got home from downtown. Thankfully, it didn't take me as long as it did last time, lol. About 6cm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 lol, that wasn't a call. You said "best case" 70cm, as if it were a 20:1 shot. Theoretically speaking, with the way this Winter was moving at when I made that call, it seemed reasonable. I know you think its oblivious, which i understand, but as a snow lover (like yourself), the continuos disappointments can get to your head. At the rate were slumping, its painful to see another futile Winter (3rd one in 8-9 years). But in one aspect, I think were jumping the board too much. Not every Winter is going to be like 07-08 unfortunately, but similarly we say not every Winter is going to be like 2011-12 (in terms of snowfall) and yet, this Winter is proving us wrong so far. Stupid theory I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Theoretically speaking, with the way this Winter was moving at when I made that call, it seemed reasonable. I know you think its oblivious, which i understand, but as a snow lover (like yourself), the continuos disappointments can get to your head. At the rate were slumping, its painful to see another futile Winter (3rd one in 8-9 years). But in one aspect, I think were jumping the board too much. Not every Winter is going to be like 07-08 unfortunately, but similarly we say not every Winter is going to be like 2011-12 (in terms of snowfall) and yet, this Winter is proving us wrong so far. Stupid theory I know! As usual Snowstorms, I can barely decipher your nonsensical posts. But I don't think it's too controversial to say that 14-15 will not finish in the same league as 09-10 or 11-12. It may end up as a bad winter, but we're talking about typical bad, not exceptionally bad like those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone have the seasonal snowfall total for KW or Guelph? I unfortunately haven't been keeping track this winter due to moving homes etc. The reason I ask is that at this point I might be shooting for futility this winter. This has to be one of the least snowiest winters in years. Don't think we've had an event of more than 10cm so far. YKF is 61.5cm not including the 1.5cm on Oct 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Personally I'm happy with today's event. It looks like deep winter out there and with the incoming cold it looks like it's going to stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like about 6cm out there. Maybe a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lake response getting going over the last hour. Let's see if we can pick up a few more cms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lake response getting going over the last hour. Let's see if we can pick up a few more cms. Thanks for reminding me Alan...my obs is from Etobicoke (home for reading week). How did London do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like about 6cm out there. Maybe a bit more. Finished off with 7.3cm in my area. Some light flurries atm. Our heaviest snowfall since the Dec 11th storm, lol. My reading week isn't till late February, lol . In the mean time i got 4 tests next week. Hope your enjoying your mini break, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 YKF is 61.5cm not including the 1.5cm on Oct 31 Thanks. Picked up about an additional 5cm today here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks for reminding me Alan...my obs is from Etobicoke (home for reading week). How did London do? About the same - give or take 5 or 6 cms I guesstimated after shovelling. The snow started about 5 pm (after a couple hrs of sleet/rain) just as I got home and immediately started sticking, so I missed the commuting fun. For all the lack of falling snow, we've maintained a reasonably good snowpack. The lake stuff is edging closer........... haven't seen much lake response this year, so this will be relatively novel if it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks. Picked up about an additional 5cm today here. Really?? We got 2.5-3cm if that. What a difference 15km can make! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 About the same - give or take 5 or 6 cms I guesstimated after shovelling. The snow started about 5 pm (after a couple hrs of sleet/rain) just as I got home and immediately started sticking, so I missed the commuting fun. For all the lack of falling snow, we've maintained a reasonably good snowpack. The lake stuff is edging closer........... haven't seen much lake response this year, so this will be relatively novel if it makes it here. A few more inches came down overnight. Back out to shovel and get off to work before the rush-hour really gets going . Will be a slow commute regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOCATION SNOWFALL AMOUNT IN CENTIMETRES WINDSOR 5 LONDON 5 JARVIS 7 KITCHENER 5 HAMILTON 5 GRIMSBY 5 ST CATHARINES 7 TORONTO 4 TO 8 BUTTONVILLE 8 OSHAWA 5 PETERBOROUGH 8 (ESTIMATED) TAPLEY 7 TRENTON 12 KALADAR 10 KINGSTON 10 OTTAWA 11 PEMBROKE 13 (ESTIMATED) PETAWAWA 13 (ESTIMATED) BARRIE 5 (ESTIMATED) WIARTON 5 HALIBURTON 8 MUSKOKA 6 ALGONQUIN PARK 13 (ESTIMATED) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 15z SREF mean has 0.28" of QPF for YYZ and 7.1" of snow. 25:1 ratio. Don't buy it for a second but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to get whiffed but 10-15 is certainly plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 15z SREF mean has 0.28" of QPF for YYZ and 7.1" of snow. 25:1 ratio. Don't buy it for a second but it is what it is. Just looking at a sounding near YYZ from the 12z NAM you can see the really deep DGZ in place(~300mb). Without BUFKIT it's tough to tell if the highest Omega intersects this area but based on t/td spread only it looks like it should. If we can avoid a complete fringe/needle fest then I would think we would be in the mix for enhanced ratios. 20:1 is always pushing it though, let alone 25:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z GFS nudged north slightly. 2" perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z GFS nudged north slightly. 2" perhaps? Also indicating good ratios because it generates almost 5" along the Toronto lakeshore with paltry QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.