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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Dude has always been sort of amazing in a deeply unhinged way, with his multi paragraph epic odes to "vodka cold," promises to clear Herculean amounts of snow with slide rule precision, and very weird erotic poetry about taking "Jebwalks" through great drifts of powder white snow.

But this is something else. Transcendent. I feel bad that the narcissistic weenie in Tolland is slant sticking feet of snow when Jebman would go into religious rapture from a single afternoon of good lake effect.

Every sidewalk will be shoveled down to the pavement if Jebman was to live in Buffalo. :lmao:

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Dude has always been sort of amazing in a deeply unhinged way, with his multi paragraph epic odes to "vodka cold," promises to clear Herculean amounts of snow with slide rule precision, and very weird erotic poetry about taking "Jebwalks" through great drifts of powder white snow.

But this is something else. Transcendent. I feel bad that the narcissistic weenie in Tolland is slant sticking feet of snow when Jebman would go into religious rapture from a single afternoon of good lake effect.

 

I was legit dying reading that paragraph. ^_^

 

Let's start a Jebman to Perrysburg fund. I see some shacks going for 40k down there.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Allman? I forget who that is. Did he post here or somewhere else?

He was another interesting character that use to post in the philly section back in easteruswx days..

 

 

KBUF is up to 85" on the year without being hit by any of the major LES events in a big way. They got the fringes of a few events but nothing direct. With the upcoming pattern, they should be a lock to get another 100'+ season. Would be 10 out of the last 15 years with 100"+, pretty impressive.

IF only that big LES event we had was couple miles north, we would've came close or exceeded the 199" seasonal record back in '77 winter. :popcorn:

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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He was another interesting character that use to post in the philly section back in easteruswx days..

 

IF only that big LES event we had was couple miles north, we would've came close or exceeded the 199" seasonal record back in '77 winter. :popcorn:

 

I don't remember that guy from eastern, most of them I cannot recall anymore. Only remember WNYLakeEffect from Jamestown who was a great poster on their. I miss his write-ups! Wonder where he went.

 

Would have been awesome. No doubt KBUF would have been accurate in their measurements and if they were in the hardest hit areas would have been easily 100"+. KBUF is definitely due for a biggie though.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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nohrsc_full_sd.png

 

Copied from an Accuweather blog: "The snow depth in Bangor, Maine, of 53 inches ties their all-time record."  

 

That's really just insane.  I mean, we're talking snow depths you might expect at 10K feet plus elevation in the Rockies, not down at sea level.  If that storm blows up later this week just off the coast the area from SE Mass up through coastal Maine will have snow depths just off the charts.  

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Copied from an Accuweather blog: "The snow depth in Bangor, Maine, of 53 inches ties their all-time record."  

 

That's really just insane.  I mean, we're talking snow depths you might expect at 10K feet plus elevation in the Rockies, not down at sea level.  If that storm blows up later this week just off the coast the area from SE Mass up through coastal Maine will have snow depths just off the charts.  

 

Wow that is crazy. That is Tug Hill type stuff right there. I wonder how many times they get to 50"+ depth. They still need 6 more inches to match the highest in the Snovember event. But yeah I can see them hitting it, they don't really thaw up near Bangor until the end of March and GFS and Euro ensembles look fantastic for that next storm for the Boston area again. ^_^

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I think Randy and me are leaning toward coming up this weekend.  Looks like a decent period to chase...Perhaps Fulton - Owsego area will be the best?  Thanks.

 

It's not the best set-up for extreme LES but should get some additional moisture as several shortwaves work through the area the next 10-14 days. I would tend to lean towards the southern portion of the tug as winds look WNW/NW for most of the next few weeks. Snow depth there is already 20-30" and will add to that the next few weeks. But the areas you suggested do look the best, maybe a little bit farther away from the lake with some elevation would be best.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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I think Randy and me are leaning toward coming up this weekend.  Looks like a decent period to chase...Perhaps Fulton - Owsego area will be the best?  Thanks.

Just my 2 cents on LE and their locations with respect to wind trajectories!

 

270-280 = Oswego to Pulaski

290-310 = Fulton to Syracuse but with different intensities.  A 290 mean can deliver a whopping single band directly across So. Oswego and No. Onondaga counties while a 310 mean will send multiple bands, weaker in nature, throughout most of CNY sort of like a spray almost!

310-330 = a finger lakes event with pretty much nothing North of rt20 except a stray flurry or two up to Nedrow.

 

less than 270 is a W-WSW-SW flow which would hit anywhere North of Pulaski-Watertown.

 

if theres no moisture left behind this weekends clipper I wouldn't even bother but NWS-KBUF is talking at least some kind of event unfolding but its way too far out to even speculate on any location with much certainty.

 

Hope you can get somewhere to enjoy some powder bro.

 

You guys are nowhere near out of the game this year as you know weak Nino's are notorious for dragging Winter on.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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THE SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...AND THANKS TO

THE VERY STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE...THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP

A@!S A FUTURE NOR`EASTER OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE...AN

ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE NEXT FRIGID AIRMASS FOR WESTERN

AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -20C BY

EVENING. THE DEEPENING COLD AIR OVER THE STILL LARGELY OPEN WATERS

OF LAKE ONTARIO...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEP BUT

PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW

SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS A

LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS NOT

OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN 30 MILES OR SO OF THE BUFFALO TO SYRACUSE

STRETCH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH

READINGS AROUND 20 DURING THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO TEENS AND SINGLE

DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...

THIS WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.

CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOREAL FLOW WILL KEEP FAIRLY

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN

THE ABOVE DESCRIBED STRETCH FROM BUFFALO TO SYRACUSE WHERE

SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF

SNOW COULD FALL IN THAT AREA...FURTHER HAMPERING TRAVEL ALONG THAT

STRETCH OF THE THRUWAY."

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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It's not the best set-up for extreme LES but should get some additional moisture as several shortwaves work through the area the next 10-14 days. I would tend to lean towards the southern portion of the tug as winds look WNW/NW for most of the next few weeks. Snow depth there is already 20-30" and will add to that the next few weeks. But the areas you suggested do look the best, maybe a little bit farther away from the lake with some elevation would be best.

 

 

Just my 2 cents on LE and their locations with respect to wind trajectories!

 

270-280 = Oswego to Pulaski

290-310 = Fulton to Syracuse but with different intensities.  A 290 mean can deliver a whopping single band directly across So. Oswego and No. Onondaga counties while a 310 mean will send multiple bands, weaker in nature, throughout most of CNY sort of like a spray almost!

310-330 = a finger lakes event with pretty much nothing North of rt20 except a stray flurry or two up to Nedrow.

 

less than 270 is a W-WSW-SW flow which would hit anywhere North of Pulaski-Watertown.

 

if theres no moisture left behind this weekends clipper I wouldn't even bother but NWS-KBUF is talking at least some kind of event unfolding but its way too far out to even speculate on any location with much certainty.

 

Hope you can get somewhere to enjoy some powder bro.

 

You guys are nowhere near out of the game this year as you know weak Nino's are notorious for dragging Winter on.

 

 

Thanks.  Appreciate it.  It is mostly a function of having a 3 day weekend, and wanting to see snow, so finding the place that gives us the best chance.  I think it is looking pretty good to get some decent LES in addition to the minor synoptic event on Saturday.

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Blizzard92

Blizzard92

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Thanks.  Appreciate it.  It is mostly a function of having a 3 day weekend, and wanting to see snow, so finding the place that gives us the best chance.  I think it is looking pretty good to get some decent LES in addition to the minor synoptic event on Saturday.

If you do not want to travel as far, we have about 18-24" on the ground here in the Finger Lakes. It looks like a pretty good setup for some lake effect streamers and a Cayuga band this weekend so that may be interesting. Of course, it is nothing compared to bands in the Tug Hill, but fun nevertheless. The best location would be a small town called Caroline Center (10mi-ish SE of Ithaca); they currently have around 27" on the ground already.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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If you do not want to travel as far, we have about 18-24" on the ground here in the Finger Lakes. It looks like a pretty good setup for some lake effect streamers and a Cayuga band this weekend so that may be interesting. Of course, it is nothing compared to bands in the Tug Hill, but fun nevertheless. The best location would be a small town called Caroline Center (10mi-ish SE of Ithaca); they currently have around 27" on the ground already.

 

awesome thanks.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Ensembles look in really good agreement in the 180 hour time-frame for something big from Detriot-Syracuse for being so far out in time. Still far out but the signal is there for a deep system. In the meantime I like the I90 corridor for some nice snows the next week with the couple of shortwaves and Lake Ontario enhancement.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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NE_Snow.png

Looks about right but there could be some really nice surprises with a few vigorous SW's that will be traversing the area in a WNW fashion and with LO wide open for business, needless to say, it could get very interesting especially if the winds back just enough to get a solid 290-300 flow (WNW) band going then look out.  The possibility does exist with such an extreme airmass, less so off of Erie as its frozen over, but Huron seems to be open just enough to add some much needed moisture to an already starved system!

 

Odd to me how, the same time last year, the lakes we're predominately frozen except for Ontario but thats going to change big time the next few weeks that's for sure!!

 

Just keep adding to the building glacier as we have close ~26" OTG depending on where you measure but that's an average of about 6 measurements throughout my BY, so not bad after a rather paltry first half of the season. Exciting next few weeks that's for sure.

 

I'm about 15-20 miles due East, maybe closer, of the yellow spec, lol, so its real close. 8-12" of additional fluff as it will be falling through some real boreal air straight from the Polar regions so ratios could be through the roof with these SW's especially the last one in the series as that's the one that drop's the hammer!

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Just took a closer look at the NAM and it s starting to look very interesting from about 12Z Thursday through Friday then winds veer ahead of the next through then right back at it but this time a true NW trajectory which will favor areas from Syracuse Southward.

 

Edit: Practically dry from the top down after the passage of the clipper so unless Ontario gets enough Fetch on a 285-290 then look for sporadic multiple bands, sporadic meaning cellular in nature instead of true bands IMO so well see as we all know how finicky LE can be.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Just took a closer look at the NAM and it s starting to look very interesting from about 12Z Thursday through Friday then winds veer ahead of the next through then right back at it but this time a true NW trajectory which will favor areas from Syracuse Southward.

Edit: Practically dry from the top down after the passage of the clipper so unless Ontario gets enough Fetch on a 285-290 then look for sporadic multiple bands, sporadic meaning cellular in nature instead of true bands IMO so well see as we all know how finicky LE can be.

Next few days should score us 3-6"...more interesting is tues/wed next week. At least according to 12z GFS. Anyone care to posit how this will end up as 2 feet of snow for southern new england, or should we go elsewhere for that discussion? ;)

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Cool write-up from BUF.  So if you look at the sky this weekend you can see the boreal atmosphere moving right overhead :whistle: .  With this sliding right over us, I wonder if we'll say any surprises on a meso-scale from Lake Ontario....

 

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. ONE WAY TO `VISUALIZE` THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS FEATURE IS TO
LOOK AT THE 1.5 PV SFC...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LOWER TO UNDER 800 MB.
THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS DIRECTLY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...TEMPS
WILL MAX OUT IN THE TEENS DURING THE MORNING THEN WILL STEADILY DROP
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW IN THE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS OF -28C JUST
UPSTREAM WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST 36
HOUR PERIOD YET EXPERIENCED THIS WINTER FOR OUR REGION.

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