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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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Models are definitely a bit warmer, noticably the GFS.  The NAM and GGEM remain just cold enough to keep us as mostly snow, ending as some light rain.  Sort of SWFE style.

 

Here's the 4km NAM p-type panels...

 

 

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I'm kind of thinking front end snow for Central NH then FR to rain then maybe back to bit of frozen at the end.  Probably will end with white ground with crust over a couple of inches of snow but its Saturday and the storm track is still very well going to shift 100 miles either way.  Let me know Powder what the Euro shows for C/NNE since that's the model I don't subscribe too.

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I'm kind of thinking front end snow for Central NH then FR to rain then maybe back to bit of frozen at the end.  Probably will end with white ground with crust over a couple of inches of snow but its Saturday and the storm track is still very well going to shift 100 miles either way.  Let me know Powder what the Euro shows for C/NNE since that's the model I don't subscribe too.

 

I'll see in maybe a half hour when it comes out... but this could be an odd event where up here we could be like 33-34F and snowing (at least early on), while you are 31-32F but raining (freezing rain).  You may likely have colder near surface temps but warmer aloft, while we have colder temps aloft but warmer at the surface, haha.

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I'll see in maybe a half hour when it comes out... but this could be an odd event where up here we could be like 33-34F and snowing (at least early on), while you are 31-32F but raining (freezing rain).  You may likely have colder near surface temps but warmer aloft, while we have colder temps aloft but warmer at the surface, haha.

 

Pretty warm, 850 mb 0C line back to near SLK. +2.5C at 850mb over Stowe after about 0.16" of QPF which could be snow, then 0.32" QPF not snow.

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Pretty warm, 850 mb 0C line back to near SLK. +2.5C at 850mb over Stowe after about 0.16" of QPF which could be snow, then 0.32" QPF not snow.

Yeah definitely mild. Cold rain haha.

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Should be a rainy Monday for a lot of NH. Looks like a brief SN/PL deal quickly turning to ZR/RA. The ZR looks brief and minor to me with no high in place. Maybe 1500-2000kft hold on to the icing a little longer, but where most people live we'll latently heat up to a comfy 32.5F and rain.

Then we get the fropa and feel the woosh of that strong CAA.

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The Euro looks like crap, unless you want a rainer. NWS has cut back to minimal accums at best for the CPV. I honestly think the best thing to come of this will be on the backside with perhaps some lake effect making it in, and the mountains cashing in a little on the upslope. That would be more so on Tuesday.

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Yeah NAM has 0.33" at MPV prior to any above freezing layer in the column, then 0.25" as rain. H85 looks like the warmest layer on the NAM, then below freezing at 950mb and just a touch above freezing at the SFC.

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Looking at the 18Z FOUS for the NAM for Concord it has about .20 to .25" as snow before the layer warms at al levels.  Maybe a couple of inches for me and then a cold 34F rain.  Perhaps we could still get through this in the cold air damning areas like me with white left on the ground?

CON is sleet at 45hr with little snow before that. There's +1C at H8 while H85 is -1C. With the mid-level center NW of us we have to watch for those warm tongues above 850. It'll all come down to timing on whether or not we can pull 1-2" before the flip. I'm not very gung-ho on it, but we'll see how guidance trends. The euro gets uglier earlier than the NAM. The sfc center reflection should remain to our south so I think we'll be socked into a 33-35F rain for awhile. Then we'll probably briefly warm spike up once the CAA mixing cranks up behind the cold front.

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Yeah NAM has 0.33" at MPV prior to any above freezing layer in the column, then 0.25" as rain. H85 looks like the warmest layer on the NAM, then below freezing at 950mb and just a touch above freezing at the SFC.

Gotta watch H75-H8...it's trending warmer too.

Date: 48 hour NAM valid 18Z MON 17 NOV 14
Station: KMPV
Latitude:   44.20
Longitude: -72.57
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    76                                                                 
SFC  958   421   0.2  -0.8  93  1.0  -0.2 117   7 276.7 277.4 275.1 287.1  3.77
  2  950   487  -0.6  -1.3  95  0.7  -0.9 120  11 276.6 277.2 274.9 286.6  3.65
  3  900   917  -2.9  -3.5  96  0.6  -3.1 151  25 278.5 279.1 275.5 287.7  3.28
  4  850  1371  -2.5  -3.0  96  0.5  -2.7 193  31 283.5 284.1 278.4 293.7  3.60
  5  800  1851  -3.4  -3.9  97  0.5  -3.6 207  40 287.5 288.1 280.4 297.8  3.58
  6  750  2364  -1.3  -1.5  98  0.3  -1.4 219  50 295.2 296.0 284.8 308.6  4.56
  7  700  2913  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.2  -3.1 220  55 299.2 300.0 286.1 312.2  4.32
  8  650  3497  -5.7  -6.1  97  0.4  -5.9 219  59 302.5 303.2 286.7 313.9  3.74
  9  600  4121  -8.8  -9.0  98  0.3  -8.9 221  67 306.0 306.6 287.4 316.0  3.21
 10  550  4791 -12.3 -12.5  98  0.2 -12.4 224  72 309.5 310.0 288.1 318.0  2.65

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Gotta watch H75-H8...it's trending warmer too.

Date: 48 hour NAM valid 18Z MON 17 NOV 14
Station: KMPV
Latitude:   44.20
Longitude: -72.57
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    76                                                                 
SFC  958   421   0.2  -0.8  93  1.0  -0.2 117   7 276.7 277.4 275.1 287.1  3.77
  2  950   487  -0.6  -1.3  95  0.7  -0.9 120  11 276.6 277.2 274.9 286.6  3.65
  3  900   917  -2.9  -3.5  96  0.6  -3.1 151  25 278.5 279.1 275.5 287.7  3.28
  4  850  1371  -2.5  -3.0  96  0.5  -2.7 193  31 283.5 284.1 278.4 293.7  3.60
  5  800  1851  -3.4  -3.9  97  0.5  -3.6 207  40 287.5 288.1 280.4 297.8  3.58
  6  750  2364  -1.3  -1.5  98  0.3  -1.4 219  50 295.2 296.0 284.8 308.6  4.56
  7  700  2913  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.2  -3.1 220  55 299.2 300.0 286.1 312.2  4.32
  8  650  3497  -5.7  -6.1  97  0.4  -5.9 219  59 302.5 303.2 286.7 313.9  3.74
  9  600  4121  -8.8  -9.0  98  0.3  -8.9 221  67 306.0 306.6 287.4 316.0  3.21
 10  550  4791 -12.3 -12.5  98  0.2 -12.4 224  72 309.5 310.0 288.1 318.0  2.65

 

Yeah I was just looking at this... looked like the warmth was centered around 850-900mb.

 

 

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Well moot point because the GFS is an all-out torch for Monday... very little frozen on the front side of that.  Looks like the EURO.

 

DT is all in LOL:

10686665_10203060301530532_3474445958417

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Just to let all you  NNE's   Martha's Vineyard  14 this morning.

Yeah they radiate like mad when it's non-snowcover season. The NJ pine barrens are a sneaky rad spot too. Once the bases really start climbing NNE will start winning the rad battles though.

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19F this morning here. CON made it to 16F. Looks like BML was the cold spot with 10F.

 

28F here. Lake Effect clouds and southerly flow kept us in check.

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22F low this AM.   Few flakes in the air this morning. 33F now.  Tomorrow does not look very exciting.

 

My brother and family moved to Aspen and just built a house.  Its at 8500 feet.  About 500 feet above the town.  I bought him a dropcam so I could look at his view and weather.  I am not familar with Rocky Mountain weather.  Snowed all day yesterday and its 8F now.  His view faces SW overlooking Aspen Mountain and 14,000 peaks just to the west of that.  Looking at the picture this AM it seems that west wind is rising over the peaks and depositing snowshowers just downwind.  Powder, does it looks like that to you??

post-268-0-64074100-1416157376_thumb.jpg

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22F low this AM.   Few flakes in the air this morning. 33F now.  Tomorrow does not look very exciting.

 

My brother and family moved to Aspen and just built a house.  Its at 8500 feet.  About 500 feet above the town.  I bought him a dropcam so I could look at his view and weather.  I am not familar with Rocky Mountain weather.  Snowed all day yesterday and its 8F now.  His view faces SW overlooking Aspen Mountain and 14,000 peaks just to the west of that.  Looking at the picture this AM it seems that west wind is rising over the peaks and depositing snowshowers just downwind.  Powder, does it looks like that to you??

 

That's an awesome cam view!  Man Colorado gets such pristine powder snow, lol, look at that stuff. 

 

Yeah those are definitely snow showers across the peaks...looks like there's probably some strong winds up there and not snowing all that hard but probably incredibly beautiful inside those.  Sunny and yet snowing.  The snow growth zone is probably literally at the surface there, lol.

 

 

I saw Crested Butte just south of Aspen picked up 20" of snowfall recently from this storm.  Colorado has been getting hammered this November so far.

 

10440997_10152787814011893_2916043013152

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22F low this AM.   Few flakes in the air this morning. 33F now.  Tomorrow does not look very exciting.

 

My brother and family moved to Aspen and just built a house.  Its at 8500 feet.  About 500 feet above the town.  I bought him a dropcam so I could look at his view and weather.  I am not familar with Rocky Mountain weather.  Snowed all day yesterday and its 8F now.  His view faces SW overlooking Aspen Mountain and 14,000 peaks just to the west of that.  Looking at the picture this AM it seems that west wind is rising over the peaks and depositing snowshowers just downwind.  Powder, does it looks like that to you??

That is sweet. I'd take fluff all day living up there. Does he ever complain of altitude sickness? 8500' is getting up there.

 

What does a house at that elevation go for?

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That is sweet. I'd take fluff all day living up there. Does he ever complain of altitude sickness? 8500' is getting up there.

What does a house at that elevation go for?

Depending on how close to Aspen, that's the highest housing prices in the country. Average of 6 million bucks in 2010. The lowest prices are trailer park spots that go for 600,000. Median single family home for $4.6 million.

I figured you'd hate having to deal with the fluff storms up there and want more of a Lake Tahoe type climate, haha.

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Depending on how close to Aspen, that's the highest housing prices in the country. Average of 6 million bucks in 2010. The lowest prices are trailer park spots that go for 600,000. Median single family home for $4.6 million.

I figured you'd hate having to deal with the fluff storms up there and want more of a Lake Tahoe type climate, haha.

My brother  (he's 46)  just finished his new house this summer.  He and his wife have 2 kids.  The house is large but not a McMansion by any means.  He told me it cost around 6 million. I attached a picture.  It has solar electric and his bill he says only runs $100 a month.  The house is on a mountain side call Starwood. It has a heated outdoor pool, firepit and the kids have the treehouse thing.  It overlooks the village of Aspen.He says he's at 8500 feet, I think Aspen is at 7900.  I have not been out there yet.  He sees the whole mountain chain to the SW and West.  He kept telling me the views were incredible and that I would love to watch the "weather systems" that constantly roll through.  So I bought him a $199 dropcam.  He stuck it on a window and he is right, the squalls and cloud layers are constant stunning.  I don't post them here since its not relevant.  Since I bought the cam I can estimate snowfall by the railing.  So far maybe 20" for the season.  Last week it was really interesting watching it snow at the higher elevations but not stick at elevations below his house.

 

My brother invested in one of those self storage things 20 years ago and then a share in a small hotel.  He keeps buying low and selling high and now has a beautiful home and a family private jet.  When I was 20 I got my private pilots license and then kind of dropped flying.  As a kid 10 years younger he would fly with me and when he got older he got his license.  He loved it so much he bought a small single engine and then a twin. 2 years ago he got his jet license so he can now fly to the 20 hotels he owns in his Phenon, a 6 seater..  Nice life!!  If you guys want I will occ. post a great weather picture if I see something interesting on his cam.  I would definitely recommend a drop cam, its high resolution.  I don't know why ski resorts have such crappy cams.

post-268-0-71193400-1416162512_thumb.jpg

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