JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 AND the NAM ticks south., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is what I get for going back to optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Actually, it's pretty close to the same as 12Z as I take another glance at it. But SO close to a major thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Actually, it's pretty close to the same as 12Z as I take another glance at it. But SO close to a major thumping. its pretty much a carbon copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAM has 2-3" northern Franklin and 3-4" southern. It increased max amounts in the axis of heaviest accums but also inched things farther south. I hate to double post this but since the discussion is split between two threads and not many Ohio posters have been posting a lot in the main storm thread, I'll post this here as well. When looking over the 0z and 12z model runs and observations from this morning, it appears the trend is for a slightly weaker and slower cut-off ejecting out of the southwest, and also the shortwave moving into the Great Lakes on Wednesday coming in a little quicker. This all argues for the heaviest swath of snow shifting farther southeast. The 0z GFS captured this considerably better than the 0z NAM. Considering the cut-off still isn’t well sampled, and considering CIPS analog guidance suggests it is very difficult to get heavy snow in the Ohio Valley with this setup, I’m expecting an additional slight bump to the south with tonight’s 0z runs…hopefully I adjusted the map far enough south. As for exact placement of the amounts, the 12z NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest that 8”+ is very likely across much of southern Ohio. Even with an additional bump south on these models, 8”+ would still likely occur along and just north of the river. Although the NAM and Euro (and even the GFS BUFKIT output) along with several SREF members suggest amounts of up to 15” are possible, I believe that these amounts (if they even occur at all) will be just south of Ohio, as this is where the best mid-level isentropic lift is shown during the storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In Ohio, there is still tremendous lift from the right-entrance quadrant of a 200+ knot upper level jet streak from Wednesday PM through Thursday evening, along with high PWATs for a winter storm situation (greater than 0.8” Wednesday evening falling to 0.6” by Thursday morning)…this great upper level lift and high PWAT combo when combined with the duration of the snows (12-15 hours in southern Ohio) and improving snow ratios during the second half of the storm suggests that amounts of up to a foot are possible just north of the Ohio River. There is good agreement among the Euro/NAM in eroding any mid-level warm layer by Wednesday evening across southern Ohio, with the GFS a few hours faster than that. Most SREF members agree…a few members show rain hanging on in southern OH through much of Wednesday night which shows up in p-type probability plots and skews the mean snow down at sites such as PKB and CVG, however, these members show a ridiculously far north and strong storm track and are being discounted. All in all, feel as though a delayed changeover to snow isn’t a large enough risk to cut down on snow amounts much in southern Ohio. A very strong northern cut-off to the snow is depicted on all models due to very dry air trying to work in from the northwest. The cut-off depicted on this map is if anything less sharp than the cut-off that some models show, which means the northern edge may need additional trimming at some point between now and when the snow starts if the models continue their south trend. As for the northern edge of the higher amounts…I was very conservative due to the expected sharp cut off, the best mid-level lift staying south of the river and the expected further bump to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hahaha mean for zzv a county south of me is now 10" with a few nearing 20" To top it off wsw issued for one county south. So sickening. never a north shift when we need it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think you are a bit too low along US 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think you are a bit too low along US 22. Over towards Wheeling it's possible I am, as some models do show the northern edge of the snow running more SW to NE there than what I show. In general though this seemed to me like a setup to go conservative on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Over towards Wheeling it's possible I am, as some models do show the northern edge of the snow running more SW to NE there than what I show. In general though this seemed to me like a setup to go conservative on. Geez. Could be quite a difference between New Lex and say Buckeye Lake. I don't blame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The HRRR and RAP are trying to drop an inch or two of snow along and north of I-70 with the wave early tomorrow as they bring in the cold quicker. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAM has 2-3" northern Franklin and 3-4" southern. It increased max amounts in the axis of heaviest accums but also inched things farther south. I hate to double post this but since the discussion is split between two threads and not many Ohio posters have been posting a lot in the main storm thread, I'll post this here as well. snow 3-4 no neo.png When looking over the 0z and 12z model runs and observations from this morning, it appears the trend is for a slightly weaker and slower cut-off ejecting out of the southwest, and also the shortwave moving into the Great Lakes on Wednesday coming in a little quicker. This all argues for the heaviest swath of snow shifting farther southeast. The 0z GFS captured this considerably better than the 0z NAM. Considering the cut-off still isn’t well sampled, and considering CIPS analog guidance suggests it is very difficult to get heavy snow in the Ohio Valley with this setup, I’m expecting an additional slight bump to the south with tonight’s 0z runs…hopefully I adjusted the map far enough south. As for exact placement of the amounts, the 12z NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest that 8”+ is very likely across much of southern Ohio. Even with an additional bump south on these models, 8”+ would still likely occur along and just north of the river. Although the NAM and Euro (and even the GFS BUFKIT output) along with several SREF members suggest amounts of up to 15” are possible, I believe that these amounts (if they even occur at all) will be just south of Ohio, as this is where the best mid-level isentropic lift is shown during the storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In Ohio, there is still tremendous lift from the right-entrance quadrant of a 200+ knot upper level jet streak from Wednesday PM through Thursday evening, along with high PWATs for a winter storm situation (greater than 0.8” Wednesday evening falling to 0.6” by Thursday morning)…this great upper level lift and high PWAT combo when combined with the duration of the snows (12-15 hours in southern Ohio) and improving snow ratios during the second half of the storm suggests that amounts of up to a foot are possible just north of the Ohio River. There is good agreement among the Euro/NAM in eroding any mid-level warm layer by Wednesday evening across southern Ohio, with the GFS a few hours faster than that. Most SREF members agree…a few members show rain hanging on in southern OH through much of Wednesday night which shows up in p-type probability plots and skews the mean snow down at sites such as PKB and CVG, however, these members show a ridiculously far north and strong storm track and are being discounted. All in all, feel as though a delayed changeover to snow isn’t a large enough risk to cut down on snow amounts much in southern Ohio. A very strong northern cut-off to the snow is depicted on all models due to very dry air trying to work in from the northwest. The cut-off depicted on this map is if anything less sharp than the cut-off that some models show, which means the northern edge may need additional trimming at some point between now and when the snow starts if the models continue their south trend. As for the northern edge of the higher amounts…I was very conservative due to the expected sharp cut off, the best mid-level lift staying south of the river and the expected further bump to the south. Well that's pretty depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the GFS is right. call off the dogs, fold up the tent and pour some water on the fire. fortunately...it looks like nothing I have seen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS is a kick in the nuts to everyone but Kentucky and extreme southern Ohio. Time to call time of death on this one for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS is a kick in the nuts to everyone but Kentucky and extreme southern Ohio. Time to call time of death on this one for my area.Based on an off run? Stop it. Lolhell the 18z gfs don't give a great storm to anyone. 4-8" tops it looks like. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Based on an off run? Stop it. Lol hell the 18z gfs don't give a great storm to anyone. 4-8" tops it looks like. Lol Based on the general continuance of little shifts south on all models since last night, and the rarity of a setup like this yielding a large snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z rgem does the same as gfs. Barely into the orange. I could see someone getting 8-10 this run in western KY but aside that it's not that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Based on the general continuance of little shifts south on all models since last night, and the rarity of a setup like this yielding a large snowfall.The cutoff isn't sampled yet. I don't think we will get hammered but 4-6 isn't out of question yet. 15 miles we get 4-6.Not to mention super sharp cutoff systems like this are tough to forecast. It basically now cast and see where it sets up. Take the SB system or there was one earlier that was sharp cutoff and I believe both times the cutoff was further north than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Part 1 of the plan is golden. Not gonna melt all the snow. Still have about 5" here.. so whatever we get on top is a refresher. At this point I'm rooting for at least 3". Temp hasn't gone above 37° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is still a decent snow for parts of SE Ohio. its an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not sure what to think about this!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150303&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CMH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.1660 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We can't freak to the point of an accidental bowel movement every time the models bounce around a little bit. That's for sure. Guys who do this for a living can't get emotionally attatched. im sure that's not always easy at times. Maybe Lawrence and Gallia counties win this time around.. well heck.. I still have fun trying to track and forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We can't freak to the point of an accidental bowel movement every time the models bounce around a little bit. That's for sure. Guys who do this for a living can't get emotionally attatched. im sure that's not always easy at times. Maybe Lawrence and Gallia counties win this time around.. well heck.. I still have fun trying to track and forecast it. I agree. I started my weather page and am up 80 likes this week since I started it and have had a ton of compliments from followers. At least it isn't like chris bradley forecast for 1/2"-10". Kinda hard to be wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Updated map. Northern edge still a bit sketchy...may need to adjust one more time later tonight. I'm a 18z 4km NAM (qpf toned town a tad) and 12z Euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Updated map. Northern edge still a bit sketchy...may need to adjust one more time later tonight. I'm a 18z 4km NAM (qpf toned town a tad) and 12z Euro blend. It's Dilly vs mike and OHweather lolEdit: yours isn't too far from mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a different wave than the potential Ohio River big dog tomorrow night (and doesn't count towards my map that starts Wednesday PM)...could could make for an interesting AM commute around I-70: 22z RAP soundings for CMH tomorrow morning. Great lift from an upper level jet streak and PWATs of 0.8-0.9" could wring out some decent precip through 8 or 9AM to I-70 or a bit north, and the soundings both show a marginal elevated warm layer (really more of a sleet or snow sounding after 6AM based on the depth and strength of the warm layer aloft) with surface temps right near 32F. A degree or two here or there makes the difference between mostly snow and mostly rain. The setup has me thinking rain changes to sleet/zr for a couple of hours by 5-6AM in Columbus before going to snow by 7-8AM with up to an inch of accumulation for Columbus. North of Columbus where it gets colder quicker maybe 1-2". The timing of the changeover and also some potential sleet or zr during the changeover make this dicey for the AM commute if it pans out. I believe all of ILN's headlines start after noon and wouldn't cover this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well oddly enough I'm already mixing with a bit of snow. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well oddly enough I'm already mixing with a bit of snow. What does this mean? How is that possible..i am sitting at 44.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How is that possible..i am sitting at 44.. No idea. There's flakes mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF still looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OHWeather, I've been watching that potential. Decided earlier (at least for Cincinnati) that we should hang out above frz long enough to not have issues before noon, but farther north that is something to watch! Dilly, how can that be? 850mb 0C line is almost to Cleveland lol not trying to call BS on ya, but I mean I don't see how it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.