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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Well Phil, it's just about 18z and there's no convection to be found. HRRR fail?

 

Yep! The cirrus deck is still pretty thick and that still seems to be keeping temps down a tad, but it does seem like convection is holding off until the evening. No idea why HRRR was initiating so early, because its soundings suggested a significant cap.

 

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There was not a single piece of guidance that was close to what actually happened precip wise in this city. The closest was GFS and it had no precip, so even that was off. Every chance of showers/storms in the area missed the ASOS station. Truly remarkable. I'm killing temps and win and I'm getting murdered in the precip. Unbelievable

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84/59/17

 

Was thinking 85-86, but the incoming front with decent winds from the NW during morning scared me away from it. Wasn't 100% sure with this logic, so it'll be interesting to see what y'all think.

 

EDIT: Also see some disagreements with the low on here. Hmm...

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84/55/16/0

 

I'm not convinced the dew point will rise as much as some models are saying overnight, so with clear skies they should decouple and drop down to the mid-50s.

 

Instinct was to go above guidance on the high as they should have a nice deep mixed layer. Could see 85-86 if the clouds hold off longer than expected.

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