Mallow Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I'm on the opposite side of this type of story. Myself and Scott8 both had 0 precip for Day 7, which means I could end up with a trophy. I'm not sure exactly if they're planning on leaving the winds each day on 0. As of now I finished 2nd it Category 4 forecasters, and moved up a spot to 5th on the yearly cumulative scoring too. I still don't know exactly why they decided to make the precip change though, I didnt think anything was wrong with their precip reporting. They still don't have the verifications in their final form yet. The 0" of precip and the 0kts of wind actually hurt me even more than cancelling the scores for those altogether (and the 0" precip helps you more than cancelling precip altogether). So there are still going to be shifts, even if they decide to remove the day 7 precip verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 They still don't have the verifications in their final form yet. The 0" of precip and the 0kts of wind actually hurt me even more than cancelling the scores for those altogether (and the 0" precip helps you more than cancelling precip altogether). So there are still going to be shifts, even if they decide to remove the day 7 precip verification. Yeah, I'm waiting to see what happens. I had 10kts on Day 6 & 7 which hurts me more than others, but 6kts on Day 8 which helps me more than hurts. Overall I still am not sure what the final results will be. I'd really like to know what will happen with the scores. If I had time I'd try to figure it out for the top 5 cat 4 forecasters, but time is one thing I don't have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I'm on the opposite side of this type of story. Myself and Scott8 both had 0 precip for Day 7, which means I could end up with a trophy. I'm not sure exactly if they're planning on leaving the winds each day on 0. As of now I finished 2nd it Category 4 forecasters, and moved up a spot to 5th on the yearly cumulative scoring too. I still don't know exactly why they decided to make the precip change though, I didnt think anything was wrong with their precip reporting. Are you WxEric dude? I'm the noel15 guy in Category 4 trying to get 3rd place trophy for the year and this whole KMGM mess did not help me. I think it's dumb they are dropping precipitation, but let's see what WxChallenge will ultimately do first... EDIT: Wow, my 53 actually worked? EDIT2: Climo came in at 54. Disappointing, but happy at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 35/20/17/0.29 I have zero confidence in my precip forecast. But I knew consensus would be near 0.2, and I had to take a stab one way or the other. I need to make up a lot of ground on consensus to have any chance at a cat 2 overall trophy. And I felt like the high/low/wind consensus numbers would be too tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 35/22/22/0.15 I thought consensus was going to be higher on high and lower on low, but it is what it is. Pretty surprised I'm so high above consensus with 22 knots, but I'm nervous because you guys aren't going that high on winds as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 My #'s 35/25/15/0.24" Really stabbed myself in the foot for going so warm today. The problem is tomorrow isn't a good risk/reward day for those that need to make up ground. Since I need a normalized score somewhere in the -2.00 range to have any shot, I'm probably sunk for a trophy right now. Might have to put some crazy numbers tomorrow as a last ditch effort (I stand little to lose since I'm in the tourney even if this is my drop city). 35/20/17/0.29 I have zero confidence in my precip forecast. But I knew consensus would be near 0.2, and I had to take a stab one way or the other. I need to make up a lot of ground on consensus to have any chance at a cat 2 overall trophy. And I felt like the high/low/wind consensus numbers would be too tough to beat. Well you are in better position than me after the high came in at 54. Tomorrow might be hard to make up ground, but we'll see what happens. Friday could be a better risk/reward day. 35/22/22/0.15 I thought consensus was going to be higher on high and lower on low, but it is what it is. Pretty surprised I'm so high above consensus with 22 knots, but I'm nervous because you guys aren't going that high on winds as usual. Yea they will have primary northerly flow tomorrow with a less deep boundary layer. I think its going to be difficult for them to get much above 15 knots unless a strong barrier jet develops (which isn't anticipated with this system). We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Well you are in better position than me after the high came in at 54. Tomorrow might be hard to make up ground, but we'll see what happens. Friday could be a better risk/reward day. For me it depends pretty strongly on how low they get tonight. Absolute best case scenario for me is that I'm at -3.97 after tomorrow, though that's very unlikely. I'd then be at -3.994 for the year going into day 8 (which wouldn't change for me, since KMGM would then be my dropped city). With the changes still to come from KMGM, it's hard to say one way or the other, but assuming all the cat 2's ahead of me drop this KLAR, which they likely would since none of them went similar to me for tomorrow and all of them would be near consensus or worse after day 7, I'd be quite close to catching up. So I suppose it's still technically possible for me... but very complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 If we can make it down to 30F or below tonight, which is seeming more doable now, that will be a big step in the right direction for me. The high tomorrow doesn't matter at all for me, since I'm at consensus and I'm assuming my competition are dropping this city. The wind matters a little, but I am only 1kt from consensus so that's just one point if it's 18kts or higher, not too hard to make up. So, assuming it makes it to 30F or below tonight, it's all down to the low and precip tomorrow. I feel okay about the low (I need 20F or lower, but I don't think that's asking too much). The precip is going to be the toughy for me. If by some miracle we manage 0.29"+ tomorrow, I'll be in great shape going into day 8. If it's 0.19" or lower, I'll basically have no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Yea they will have primary northerly flow tomorrow with a less deep boundary layer. I think its going to be difficult for them to get much above 15 knots unless a strong barrier jet develops (which isn't anticipated with this system). We'll see though. Gotcha. It's hard to go against several years of WxChallenge experience, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 No big risks for me tomorrow: 35/20/18/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Went 34/22/18/0.20" Assuming the low gets to 30 or lower I'd have a cumulative score of around -3.70 which would put me in position for a cat 3 yearly trophy. I haven't crunched as many numbers as Mallow however the day 6 MGM wind being dropped helps me as I believe I was fairly off that day. But we will see what happens. First round bye pretty much a guarantee for me. Will see what the scores look like tomorrow and determine if I want to go risky for Friday or if I have a cat 3 trophy locked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I'm actually not in quite as dire circumstances as I thought. Specifically, I don't have to nail everything to be within striking distance. As an example, I calculated my day 7 cumulative scores based on various precipitation inputs, assuming the other variables all go my way. That is, if the low prior to 06z is 30F or below, the low tomorrow is 20F or below, and the wind tomorrow is 17kts or below. I don't necessarily think it's likely that all three will happen, but the point is just to show the kind of leeway I have. For comparison, the current third place cat 2 (KFAT12) is at -4.01 right now. So, if everything went my way through tomorrow, I'd already by right there with him. If that was the case, he (along with the other two cat 2's) would be dropping KLAR, and so their scores wouldn't change. In that case, as long as I have a strong day 8, I'd be golden. The caveat is that if the precip starts falling below 0.20", it's not impossible that KFAT12 may be dropping KMGM rather than KLAR. Then his performance in KLAR would also determine whether or not I could get that third trophy. I know I'm just rambling at this point--I guess I'm just happy I'm not completely out just yet. EDIT: So much for the 30F last night... best case scenario for day 7 for me is now -3.82... third place cat 2 (KFAT12) is still -4.01, but he's still on the border of dropping KLAR. An excellent showing on day 8 could still do it for me, but I'd give myself a ~10% chance at this time of getting that third trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 My cumulative score right now is -3.50 and I need to get to -3.56 to get the third cat 3 trophy. My wind, low and precip are the same as consensus and the person ahead of me is dropping KLAR. So I'll need to gamble tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 With the tracing today and the 32F last night, I have no shot. But at least I know that going into day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Apparently climo got 34 F as high temperature so I guess that 35 F came before 0600z even though it was 35 F at 0545z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 42/13/17/0 The precip is barely measuring now and should be light enough after 6z not to measure. As for the low, MOS appears to have a reasonable handle on current temps...raw guidance (even the very short range HRRR) is too warm at 0z. I think the MOS lows are ultimately a little too cold, however with a brief window of clear and calm before sunrise and a little new snowcover I think a hard drop late to close to the MOS lows is possible. Went with the warmer end on the high as the GFS and NAM both show nearly vertical isentropic surfaces for about the lowest 150mb and very low RH's in the low levels by afternoon, so I think plenty of sun and reasonable mixing should allow for a warmer high. Surprised consensus for the winds is 17 but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Went with 42/18/20/0.02 Just going out on a limb for fun tomorrow at this point, though I could certainly see all of those numbers verify. The 18F low depends on them not clearing out 'til around or after 12z--if they clear out before then, the drop will be fast and hard. Apparently climo got 34 F as high temperature so I guess that 35 F came before 0600z even though it was 35 F at 0545z? Climo is not used for the high. Climo is midnight to midnight LST, which is 07z-07z. The 35F was between 06z and 07z. The 35F will be the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 40/13/20. A very disappointing week 2 for me. The irony is the low got me badly this week after I was stellar at forecasting the low last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I actually went 35/19/18/0 because YOLO Climo is not used for the high. Climo is midnight to midnight LST, which is 07z-07z. The 35F was between 06z and 07z. The 35F will be the high. Thanks for clearing it up for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Cold lows for the win this morning! 10F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Cold lows for the win this morning! 10F now Nice call on that one! I had 19 F, but I hope I can get high of 35 F for city trophy since we're starting so cold Otherwise, onto Little Rock to get myself into tournament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Cold lows for the win this morning! 10F now Yep, good call on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Thanks! I needed to make a good call on something with how this half of the competition has gone for me... As of right now I (barely) have the last cat 3 trophy, and since the high and wind can only go up that shouldn't change. The wild card is MGM, that shouldn't significantly impact my score but it's very close for the last trophy so any change for the worse would hurt me. Hopefully that gets sorted out this weekend. Edit: it looks like day 6 has been finalized for MGM and that pushed me to 2nd for cat 3. For days 7&8 I was a total of 3 knots above consensus for wind and for precip was 0.05" below consensus for day 7. So when they 0 out the forecasts that will be a net 0.5 point error increase for me compared to consensus. We will see if that makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Only 23 at 11 am locally? I'm liking my 35 more and more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Only 23 at 11 am locally? I'm liking my 35 more and more...It will really jump whenever the near surface inversion mixes out but the later that happens the less chance it has to push 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 MGM is finally updated, and with that, barring something unforeseen with LAR, it looks like I'll hold on to the 2nd cat 3 overall trophy! On to the tournament now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Disappointing I didn't win my last Cat. 4 city and the fact I fell out of Top 3 among Cat. 4 folks, but finishing in Top 75 is not that bad for a sophomore. Onto wild card week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 5, 2015 Share Posted April 5, 2015 Looks like I'll have a cat 4 trophy from MGM. Didn't finish the way I wanted but it was a fun freshman year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 5, 2015 Share Posted April 5, 2015 Congrats to all who got trophies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Alright, it's time for some fun this week! Congrats to all who got trophies. Thanks! Got one more coming in from Abilene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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