Mallow Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Very very tough forecast. Low confidence, especially on the high and low: 66/52/17/0.02 My competition is 66/56/17/0.05, so the low will be a big make or break for me. But I could easily see it being 56 or higher. Way behind here with that low, 5.2 points. Bad day for me, I probably won't pass the first round. That's what I get for trusting in the GFS MOS. Unless I get a miracle and for some reason it does cool down below 56F by 06z this evening. Extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Going 68 for the high really paid off for me. Good chance of a 19 kt wind also which would put me up 3 1/2 points. Tomorrow is also tricky so it's not an insurmountable lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Got some more precipitation so my lead should be 2.1 points. Another crapshoot of a forecast tomorrow, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 5.2 points behind, and yet tomorrow there is so much variability. If my competition has anything close to the right numbers tomorrow, I'm out. But if not... dare I say it? I could still have a chance. I just have to have the right numbers... which is almost impossible on a day like tomorrow. EDIT...Me: 75/58/12/0.33 (If not for my predicament, I would have been 75/57/11/0.18) Competition: 74/55/11/0.09 Basically, a warm low and a decent amount of precip will do it for me. Specifically, I need precipitation to be 0.21" or higher. The higher, the more leeway on the other variables. I could even win with 75/56/11/0.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Another less than clear cut forecast: I went: 74/56/11/0.13" My competition went: 72/56/10/0.11" That's a potential 3.1 point difference, which depending on how the rest of today goes may not be enough for him to pass me (assuming the low doesn't get lower I should have a 3.6 point lead on him). Anyways, feel better about a few hours of partial clearing tomorrow afternoon with mid-level moisture decreasing during the afternoon and little trigger for convection during the afternoon so I went warmer. Precip was tough...the upper support for precip diminishes quickly after 6z, however there's decent lift on the edge of a low-mid level jet into the day Wednesday with some CAPE so I think scattered convection will continue and I think it's more likely that at least a cell affects the airport than not, so went with some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I got a very favorable forecast. Me: 73/56/10/0.12 My opponent: 72/56/10/0.08 Just a 73 or at least 0.09 will send me to next round and likely a 2/10 matchup against OHweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 5.2 points behind, and yet tomorrow there is so much variability. If my competition has anything close to the right numbers tomorrow, I'm out. But if not... dare I say it? I could still have a chance. I just have to have the right numbers... which is almost impossible on a day like tomorrow. EDIT... Me: 75/58/12/0.33 (If not for my predicament, I would have been 75/57/11/0.18) Competition: 74/55/11/0.09 Basically, a warm low and a decent amount of precip will do it for me. The precip is the wildcard again tomorrow. Given the juicy PWATs, we saw how some pretty meager looking showers turned into a decent amount of precip. Don't be surprised if precip overperforms again. With that said, my guy pretty much put identical precip as me for tomorrow. The only significant difference is with winds, in which I decided to go above USL. If there is any convection tomorrow, I feel decent about a possible 15 mph sustained wind. High again is dependant on cloud cover, although they should clear in the afternoon. I think there is a chance the low comes tomorrow night when they finally clear out and there is fog potential with lower dewpoints. With that said, I'm toast he gets both the high and low more correct than me. Me: 73/57/13/0.24" Competition: 74/56/10/0.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I got a very favorable forecast. Me: 73/56/10/0.12 My opponent: 72/56/10/0.08 Just a 73 or at least 0.09 will send me to next round and likely a 2/10 matchup against OHweather. I think you should be in a more favorable spot for the high...precip is a crap shoot but the potential is there for a decent amount to fall...if we meet next round it'll be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I think you should be in a more favorable spot for the high...precip is a crap shoot but the potential is there for a decent amount to fall...if we meet next round it'll be fun! Yup! I'm just glad to make it this far in tournament after working my way into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Me: 73/56/11/0.06 Competition: 74/57/12/0.21 I have a 2.5 point lead, but a combination of warm temps and a sufficient amount of precip could finish me off. Im confident that I will hang on although this rain overnight makes me a little uneasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I really, really need a couple more hundredths of rain, but I'm getting nervous we won't have convection this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 I need the precip to be 0.17" or less to advance. It looks like there is some weak precipitation but as long as they avoid anything convective I'm probably ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Looks like unless the winds come up, I am going to lose by 0.1 points... so that's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Looks like unless the winds come up, I am going to lose by 0.1 points... so that's fun. I will lose by 0.3 unless I get 0.01 more inch of rain :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Turns out that my competition will have been almost exactly right on the precipitation, and yet I could have still won had I put the right high and low. But it would have required that I also put a precip value that was almost exactly right. There's almost no chance I would have gone with that set of numbers, even though I recognized that all were within the reasonable realm of values. EDIT: Correction--with the 56F low, I had no chance. Even a perfect forecast on day 2 wouldn't have done it for me. My competition was just too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Yup, I'm out. So frustrating to lose by one degree or 0.01 inch of precipitation, but it was a decent season for me overall with another addition to my trophy case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Oh no, I was hoping to get a chance to have an Americanwx face off this year! Maybe if me and wi_fl_wx keep it up for long enough. I ironically got knocked out of our OU tournament by 0.7 points but am advancing in the national one, go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Oh no, I was hoping to get a chance to have an Americanwx face off this year! Maybe if me and wi_fl_wx keep it up for long enough. I ironically got knocked out of our OU tournament by 0.7 points but am advancing in the national one, go figure I sure hope we both make it that far! The next 2 days look challenging but it's going to be fun since my opponent was on our team last year. He's also really good at the tournament (final four last year) so I have my work cut out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Oh no, I was hoping to get a chance to have an Americanwx face off this year! Maybe if me and wi_fl_wx keep it up for long enough. I ironically got knocked out of our OU tournament by 0.7 points but am advancing in the national one, go figure Yeah, that's too bad but it is what it is. Your next opponent doesn't seem like he want to drift far from USL so watch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I can't decide if that convection in Texas will organize and make it to KLIT or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I can't decide if that convection in Texas will organize and make it to KLIT or not... This is a tough call. The Euro appears to be the only model that actually has the convection far enough NE right now, but it kills the convection tonight and fires new stuff tomorrow near or over LIT. Looking at the SREF it does something sort of similar and looks ok with the convection over eastern TX right now. My first thought is the ongoing convection will miss, as the low to mid level jet that appears to be focusing it will stay south of LIT, however I'm nervous about tomorrow with a decent amount of uncapped CAPE and perhaps a surface wind shift nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Me: 81/62/9/0 Competition: 80/63/8/0 I agonized over precip all afternoon...but now I don't have to worry about it! This won't be decided tomorrow with the front coming through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I went 78/64/10/0.10" My competition went 80/62/9/0.10" Very tough forecast. I went with the idea of the MCS over eastern TX staying just south of KLIT, however, I think it'll be rather close. The models all show some sort of surface wind shift over KLIT for a good portion of the day tomorrow, potentially due to outflow left from the MCS if it does indeed stay to their south and possibly moving through at some point during the early afternoon with around 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE and little CIN. There appears to be decent upper level divergence and with high PWATs I had to put a somewhat decent amount of precip in. The models are very hit or miss...Euro has 0.23" from 6z-6z while the NAM has essentially nothing...the GFS has been up and down but the most recent run had 0.44". The SREF mean is 0.45". Given the convection will probably be more scattered assuming the MCS misses them or dies out before getting there I think there's a bigger risk of getting 0 than getting a lot, however both are possible. So I'm ok with being the same as my competition for precip. As for lows, convective blow off will be over KLIT all night so I had to stay a little warmer than MOS. The HRRR gets down to 63 while the RAP appears to be 64-65. The 4km NAM which doesn't handle the current convection well does get them into the lower 60's...the Euro handles the current convection OK I think and also gets them to around 62 for a min, however I think it has too few clouds early on tonight. Raw GFS gets them into the upper 50's and idk how...so I'm not certain on the low but given all of the clouds tonight I think there's a better chance they stay warmer as opposed to get colder. For the high I'm not sure they clear as much as some models show due to decent upper level ascent, likely ongoing convection overhead or nearby and moist low to mid levels, so I went with the cooler end of the possible values. The Euro only appears to get them to about 76 and I thought it handled the convection reasonably well which gives me some confidence here. 4.5 potential points of difference so it's not completely do or die tomorrow, however, lots that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 After a close look at that MCS, I came away unconvinced that it would get anywhere near KLIT. The steering flow looked mostly westerly--300 mb flow is SW so the cirrus should make it. But I didn't think it would be enough clouds to keep the low up. Convection should bubble up somewhere in Arkansas tomorrow...but I admit I didn't take into account that nice upper-level divergence that I am now seeing after you mentioned it. It doesn't matter for precip, but it will prevent the high from reaching the 80s if there is convection in the vicinity. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 After a close look at that MCS, I came away unconvinced that it would get anywhere near KLIT. The steering flow looked mostly westerly--300 mb flow is SW so the cirrus should make it. But I didn't think it would be enough clouds to keep the low up. Convection should bubble up somewhere in Arkansas tomorrow...but I admit I didn't take into account that nice upper-level divergence that I am now seeing after you mentioned it. It doesn't matter for precip, but it will prevent the high from reaching the 80s if there is convection in the vicinity. We'll see. Yeah, I think it'll miss (or else I would've had more precip). The clouds on visible coming in looked pretty thick, although the drop to 70F last hour concerns me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 It looks like the low was *probably* 63, so I start the day splitting the difference on the low with my opponent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I was really hoping for 62...especially since getting 81 is a bit of a long shot. I might be down a couple points after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I was really hoping for 62...especially since getting 81 is a bit of a long shot. I might be down a couple points after today.You may get your 81 if convection doesn't develop nearby soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 80 now with 10 kt wind. If it gets to 81 I'll have a 0.5 pt lead going into tomorrow. Otherwise I'll be down 1.5 which isn't the end of the world. I've been thinking about tomorrow's forecast for a while now and I still am nowhere near even putting numbers down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I'll be down 1.5 points heading into tomorrow and any number of things can happen with the high and precip...hehe...as long as I'm different than my opponent's forecast I have at least some chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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