showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not looking good for a mid week snow event. Looks like nothing makes it over the mountains. Not a big fan of the DGEX but it looks like it wants to play too, with it showing a good storm for Xmas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 DGEX looks like a very good hit for the mid atlantic but doesn't make it up to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 126hr GFS looks noticeably drier. Just a broad area of 1008mb pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 126hr GFS looks noticeably drier. Just a broad area of 1008mb pressure. Thats what happens when it tries to run into a brick wall, IE that stubborn weather killing block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thats what happens when it tries to run into a brick wall, IE that stubborn weather killing block. Looking at the upper air and it doesn't look like matches with the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looking at the upper air and it doesn't look like matches with the surface reflection. With the block in place it would fall apart as it would run right into a confluent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 06 UTC NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Stebo, What are your thoughts on the off runs of the GFS. Heard some mets say they have gotten better while others say they are still crap and only good for looking at possible trends. Too many years of looking at them myself so I am biased to them being crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 06 UTC NOGAPS Back off the progression some, and it would be similar to the GFS. Chesapeake Bay FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Stebo, What are your thoughts on the off runs of the GFS. Heard some mets say they have gotten better while others say they are still crap and only good for looking at possible trends. Too many years of looking at them myself so I am biased to them being crap. I tend to use them within 84 hours to see if they point out a trend. They aren't crap but they are close to being crap as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NOGAPS being only slightly more progressive than the GFS would likely indicate the GFS is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The DGEX would result in weenie suicides in parts of NW NJ/SE NY and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I tend to use them within 84 hours to see if they point out a trend. They aren't crap but they are close to being crap as you can get. Thanks for the reply. Don't think I will ever trust them myself even if they do improve them. Guess that just shows my age and stubbornness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 The DGEX would result in weenie suicides in parts of NW NJ/SE NY and CT You don't have a total precip map do you? Thought I had one but couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those who live and die for each model run in the extended time frame. This is a good example why you shouldn't. This is the potential New Years day storm on the GFS. First one is yesterdays 06Z and the second is todays 06Z. Looks a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAO is likely to be either neutral or positive, at least based on the 500mb depictions during that time, if thats the case that storm will likely cut west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAO is likely to be either neutral or positive, at least based on the 500mb depictions during that time, if thats the case that storm will likely cut west. r u talking about the newyears storm or the christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 r u talking about the newyears storm or the christmas storm? New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 New Years oh ok ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You don't have a total precip map do you? Thought I had one but couldn't find it. this what you are looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 this what you are looking for? Thanks. Lot of times these are not to accurate but they can be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those who live and die for each model run in the extended time frame. This is a good example why you shouldn't. This is the potential New Years day storm on the GFS. First one is yesterdays 06Z and the second is todays 06Z. Looks a little different. Didn't realize I had posted the 00Z 12/19 instead of the 06 12/19 for the comparison. Here was what I referring to about the consistency in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z GFS has no big deal for many areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z GFS has no big deal for many areas... Not surprising. Models will waffle from run to run since we're so far out. Even if they waffle, it's good to analyze the overall trend over the last 24 hours to see how they are behaving...in other words..what kind of solution are they converging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z GFS falls apart.....12z EURO run will be big to see if it holds consistency from last nites massive 0z run. but i freagin hate that we are still soooo far away from the potential. alot can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.