Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So basically, these runs mean absolutely nothing other than noise to me.these runs are more than just noise imo...these are crucial pieces of guidance that should start to show the evolution of a possible major noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Gfs looks messy but it goes negative faster and allows it to turn the corner hard so a nice bump NW from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 and thats why you are here at midnight because they mean 'Nothing' to you ? ..Just enjoy the ride , I understand you r trying to control your enthusaidm & dont want hopes dashed but Im sure u wont mind if phase now takes place sooner and GFS shows a 975 at ACY in 5.5 days! Um yes, its 12:00, not late for me at all, I am watching the NCAA tourney. They mean nothing to me, and shouldnt to anyone else until the players gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So freaking close to a MECS on this run... and for your 5,000 post Ill ask you to elaborate how close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So freaking close to a MECS on this run... Yea seriously, you have to stay with he euro on this type of storm you can see the gfs having some trouble @ h5 but still better than 18z and closer to the euro on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Definitely shifted west... Cape Cod gets hammered, and Boston looks good to this run. Thing to take, it's west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very close, shore areas get brushed this run. Sub 972mb SE of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wow, so close, more and more data now confirming we may be dealing with one helluva storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 and for your 5,000 post Ill ask you to elaborate how close? This close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not staying up for the Euro, if this is still on the table come Saturday night I will consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Great run overall. The evolution of this baby is fantastic, just a slightly western/more negative solution and we'd be talking.... The jet structure improved this run as well which is a big reason we saw that low bump NW between 120-132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Down the 964mb 200 miles east of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very close, shore areas get brushed this run. Sub 972mb SE of the benchmark. Ok now you can see things are getting VERY serious when Goofus is starting to catch unto to the Euro solution 5.5 days out. that was one definitive shift west & aand a marked amping up in strength. I dont want the dreaded bullseye 5 days out. Baby steps in right direction every day will get us near the promised land. This is now an ibcreasingly serious threat for , at least, potential for an MECS for a large area of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 and for your 5,000 post Ill ask you to elaborate how close? This just screams possible MECS. That is one hell of a H5 configuration. I wanna see how the foreign models handle it later tonight. This one is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This closeLol at the 0C 850 isotherm just north of the Bahamas in late March. The northern half of Florida is under subfreezing 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Amazing how this storm will have plenty of cold if it does occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Ensembles will show if the west track is a go with the GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, the upper-level depiction is still being shuffled around quite a bit. The 500mb field looks more progressive/zonal still compared to previous runs, so the digging trough easily slides east, but the initial shortwave dives in earlier from Canada, and the result is an expedited phase. That appears to have compensated for the faster flow, and by hour 114 we have a deeper and more favorably oriented trough. That looks prime to tug the wayward surface low back onto the continental shelf... in fact, I think the H5 maps argue for a closer surface low track altogether (I expected a much bigger shift to the west before I looked at surface graphics). That is just a monster low... I'm interested for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very impressive This has "big boy" potential now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll chuck a ... saved for posterity: A glancing blow is the default right now but that is tantalizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, the upper-level depiction is still being shuffled around quite a bit. The 500mb field looks more progressive/zonal still compared to previous runs, so the digging trough easily slides east, but the initial shortwave dives in earlier from Canada, and the result is an expedited phase. That appears to have compensated for the faster flow, and by hour 114 we have a deeper and more favorably oriented trough. That looks prime to tug the wayward surface low back onto the continental shelf... in fact, I think the H5 maps argue for a closer surface low track altogether (I expected a much bigger shift to the west before I looked at surface graphics). That is just a monster low... I'm interested for sure. Yeah we saw the phasing trend better but the trough was aligned farther East...if we get the phasing like the GFS and have it dive down farther West it is game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This just screams possible MECS. That is one hell of a H5 configuration. I wanna see how the foreign models handle it later tonight. This one is getting interesting. USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_135.gif Yea wow...the interesting part is, if the storm is west some of the best dynamics could be over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Amazing how this storm will have plenty of cold if it does occurs. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll chuck a ... saved for posterity: gfsNE_sfc_prec_132.gif A glancing blow is the default right now but that is tantalizing. As is, verbatim only, Cape Cod will be looking at a raging blizzard & eastern end of LI at an MECS & a couple of inchestowards western LI and Eastern queens. Tomorrow is a nother day- promises t obe a VERY interesting1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very impressive This has "big boy" potential now. gfsUS_500_avort_132.gif hate to say this of a storm but that looks SEXY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Insane gfsUS_850_temp_126.gif Climatology ftw.If I didn't know the time of year I'd say it was mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One heck of a PV with this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its nice to finally see a noreaster progged with some precip to the left of the slp. Now if we can get that gyre to march west on future runs then we'll be talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is MOST likely going to be a Cape storm, it's going to boom to late at this point, things could change, but I want to see this thing evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its nice to finally see a noreaster progged with some precip to the left of the slp. Now if we can get that gyre to march west on future runs then we'll be talking. If you can get that you will move from the Euro's MECS to an HECS hands down & yes this board will crash without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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