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March 25-26 storm potential


Mitchel Volk

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and thats why you are here at midnight because they mean 'Nothing' to you ? :D..Just enjoy the ride , I understand you r trying to control your enthusaidm & dont want hopes dashed but Im sure u wont mind if phase now takes place sooner and GFS shows a 975 at ACY in 5.5 days!

Um yes, its 12:00, not late for me at all, I am watching the NCAA tourney. They mean nothing to me, and shouldnt to anyone else until the players gets sampled.

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Very close, shore areas get brushed this run. Sub 972mb SE of the benchmark.

Ok now you can see things are getting VERY serious when Goofus is starting to catch unto to the Euro solution 5.5 days out. that was one definitive shift west & aand a marked amping up in strength. I dont want the dreaded bullseye 5 days out. Baby steps in right direction every day will get us near the promised land. This is now an ibcreasingly serious threat for , at least, potential for an MECS for a large area of real estate.

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Well, the upper-level depiction is still being shuffled around quite a bit. The 500mb field looks more progressive/zonal still compared to previous runs, so the digging trough easily slides east, but the initial shortwave dives in earlier from Canada, and the result is an expedited phase. That appears to have compensated for the faster flow, and by hour 114 we have a deeper and more favorably oriented trough. That looks prime to tug the wayward surface low back onto the continental shelf... in fact, I think the H5 maps argue for a closer surface low track altogether (I expected a much bigger shift to the west before I looked at surface graphics).

 

That is just a monster low... I'm interested for sure.

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Well, the upper-level depiction is still being shuffled around quite a bit. The 500mb field looks more progressive/zonal still compared to previous runs, so the digging trough easily slides east, but the initial shortwave dives in earlier from Canada, and the result is an expedited phase. That appears to have compensated for the faster flow, and by hour 114 we have a deeper and more favorably oriented trough. That looks prime to tug the wayward surface low back onto the continental shelf... in fact, I think the H5 maps argue for a closer surface low track altogether (I expected a much bigger shift to the west before I looked at surface graphics).

 

That is just a monster low... I'm interested for sure.

 

Yeah we saw the phasing trend better but the trough was aligned farther East...if we get the phasing like the GFS and have it dive down farther West it is game, set, match. 

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I'll chuck a :weenie:... saved for posterity:

 

attachicon.gifgfsNE_sfc_prec_132.gif

 

A glancing blow is the default right now but that is tantalizing.

As is, verbatim only, Cape Cod will be looking at a raging blizzard & eastern end of LI at an MECS & a couple of inchestowards western LI and Eastern queens. Tomorrow is a nother day- promises t obe a VERY interesting1

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Its nice to finally see a noreaster progged with some precip to the left of the slp. Now if we can get that gyre to march west on future runs then we'll be talking.

If you can get that you will move from the Euro's MECS to an HECS hands down & yes this board will crash without question.

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