OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah that makes sense. It seems I have been in pretty good locations for most of these storms haha. Lived in west side of Buffalo for the 1995 event, Cheektowaga/Amherst border for 2000/2001/2006. Northern OP for 2010 and Hamburg for the 2014 events. The LES follows me. February 2007 verified a blizzard on campus on the Monday morning after the Superbowl...so it had a great combination of huge totals, a blizzard, and extremely cold temperatures. We even had thundersnow with 850s of -26c because of the extreme lake induced instability. Late season very cold events rarely have lightning due to lack of graupel in the cloud layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That must of been awesome to experience the 2007 storm, how much did Oswego receive during that? I know East Aurora had something like 45 inches from that storm. approximately 100" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 February 2007 had the greatest lake induced instability that I've ever observed. It had 2200j/kg of cape, which is greater than November 2000 and even the historic October storm. 500mb temps were -46c during that storm and Lake Ontario was still 5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 February 2007 verified a blizzard on campus on the Monday morning after the Superbowl...so it had a great combination of huge totals, a blizzard, and extremely cold temperatures. We even had thundersnow with 850s of -26c because of the extreme lake induced instability. Late season very cold events rarely have lightning due to lack of graupel in the cloud layer. Yeah, that definitely would of been number 1 on my list to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 February 2007 had the greatest lake induced instability that I've ever observed. It had 2200j/kg of cape, which is greater than November 2000 and even the historic October storm. 500mb temps were -46c during that storm and Lake Ontario was still 5C. Wow that is insane...What were the parameters during Dec. 2001? I know the lake was like 40-50 degrees at the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wow that is insane...What were the parameters during Dec. 2001? I know the lake was like 40-50 degrees at the time? I don't think December 2001 had anything huge. Probably 1000j/kg or so at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't think December 2001 had anything huge. Probably 1000j/kg or so at times. How were parameters like you mentioned experienced in 2007 so late in the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 How were parameters like you mentioned experienced in 2007 so late in the season? Lake Ontario was much above normal for the date, and the PV that dropped NE of the lakes had an exceptionally deep and cold airmass. The 1000-500mb thickness were about 488 dm that night, and the les conditions were favorable at the same time. 500s that cold are quite rare...I'm not sure of the exact hemispheric mechanism for why some PV chunks will have -35c 500s and others will have -45c 500s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lake Ontario was much above normal for the date, and the PV that dropped NE of the lakes had an exceptionally deep and cold airmass. The 1000-500mb thickness were about 488 dm that night, and the les conditions were favorable at the same time. 500s that cold are quite rare...I'm not sure of the exact hemispheric mechanism for why some PV chunks will have -35c 500s and others will have -45c 500s. I thought the 850s (1500 meters) were the location to look at for delta ts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I thought the 850s (1500 meters) were the location to look at for delta ts? they are, but you can still look at delta Ts with respect to other levels. Good LES events will also have a greater than 28C lapse (dry adiabatic) from the lake to 700mb. The most insane events will have a lake to 500 difference of close to 54C. That's when you know the band will have depth since the cold air has depth. If you're inversion is just above 850mb, you're not going to have good les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 they are, but you can still look at delta Ts with respect to other levels. Good LES events will also have a greater than 28C lapse (dry adiabatic) from the lake to 700mb. The most insane events will have a lake to 500 difference of close to 54C. That's when you know the band will have depth since the cold air has depth. If you're inversion is just above 850mb, you're not going to have good les. Makes perfect sense thanks. BTW what causes thunder within LES. Does it have to do with the Delta Ts in relation to 500, 700, 850 mb or a combination of all 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Makes perfect sense thanks. BTW what causes thunder within LES. Does it have to do with the Delta Ts in relation to 500, 700, 850 mb or a combination of all 3? It's a combination of depth, vertical velocities, and how much graupel in the cloud layer. Basically you want the graupel to bounce off each other quickly to create a large net charge separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's a combination of depth, vertical velocities, and how much graupel in the cloud layer. Basically you want the graupel to bounce off each other quickly to create a large net charge separation. Quite the difference in Thunder during LES and Severe weather events. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 I will be uploading the photos/videos I have from the last few storms and the snowbanks along the lakeshore. I have some pretty insane stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That must of been awesome to experience the 2007 storm, how much did Oswego receive during that? I know East Aurora had something like 45 inches from that storm. In Parish, when I lived there in 2007, we received 127" over 6.5 days...with 100" of it occurring in 4.5 days. Chased with some of the old Eastern (some current American) board member (Randy (stormtracker), Dan, our own Brian (Gravestone), Matt (zywts), donsutherland, Keith, Dan (danstorm), Midlosnowmaker, forky, Howard, and many others...along with TWC and my national debut (for those who haven't seen my shameless plug!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT746bBEdMk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I will be uploading the photos/videos I have from the last few storms and the snowbanks along the lakeshore. I have some pretty insane stuff! Looking forward to them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 In Parish, when I lived there in 2007, we received 127" over 6.5 days...with 100" of it occurring in 4.5 days. Chased with some of the old Eastern (some current American) board member (Randy (stormtracker), Dan, our own Brian (Gravestone), Matt (zywts), donsutherland, Keith, Dan (danstorm), Midlosnowmaker, forky, Howard, and many others...along with TWC and my national debut (for those who haven't seen my shameless plug!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT746bBEdMk Haha, awesome! I was in high school near Albany at the time and remember being so jealous of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 In Parish, when I lived there in 2007, we received 127" over 6.5 days...with 100" of it occurring in 4.5 days. Chased with some of the old Eastern (some current American) board member (Randy (stormtracker), Dan, our own Brian (Gravestone), Matt (zywts), donsutherland, Keith, Dan (danstorm), Midlosnowmaker, forky, Howard, and many others...along with TWC and my national debut (for those who haven't seen my shameless plug!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT746bBEdMk OMG this is awesome! Did you guys take any videos of the chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 OMG this is awesome! Did you guys take any videos of the chase? I've got some pictures on my home computer (and if I have time today, I think they're uploaded on Skydrive, I'll post some) I think some of the chase crew have some youtube videos...search 2007 les chase pulaski easternuswx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I am calling 12.5" IMBY....liquid equivalent of about 1.4 Check KSYR's climo report for yday...3.13" liquid and 12.1" snow? I can believe the SN, but the melted total looks way high. As suspected, the climate report for 3/12 precip. was amended and is now listed as "M".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 We skip straight to summer this year, mother nature says no spring for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 In Parish, when I lived there in 2007, we received 127" over 6.5 days...with 100" of it occurring in 4.5 days. Chased with some of the old Eastern (some current American) board member (Randy (stormtracker), Dan, our own Brian (Gravestone), Matt (zywts), donsutherland, Keith, Dan (danstorm), Midlosnowmaker, forky, Howard, and many others...along with TWC and my national debut (for those who haven't seen my shameless plug!) That was a fun trip...those in my vehicle hauled an army guy and his wife from down south, out of a snow bank. Who says chasing doesn't serve a societal need? I can also verify ~100" around Oswego that week. We never had a "snow day" at work though i spent at least 1/2 of one day helping extract a coworker from a snow bank on Silk Rd in about 100' visibility. A total clusterf*** that week. Afterwards, you could tell where the National Guard plows had been...by the lines of smashed mailboxes alongside the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro paints a deep winter like pattern...snowy weekend...potential event mid next week...followed by well below ave. temps (LES??) My lawn mower may need a defibulator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z 3/18 Euro would appear to be a nice hit for C/E NY....but I'll pass on that if you give me GEM9 for total obliteration of all Upstate: (this is for T+180) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So do any of you folks go to the American Weather Conference? I'm kicking the idea around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So do any of you folks go to the American Weather Conference? I'm kicking the idea around. I'm considering it, especially since I'm only like 3 hours away from here in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 watching SYR March temp. We're at 23.4, -8.6. We could pull it off depending on the last 2-3 days of March. Coldest: Rank Value Year 1 24.3 1960 2 24.5 1984 3 28.5 1956 4 29.3 1992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So do any of you folks go to the American Weather Conference? I'm kicking the idea around. I plan on going. I went in 2009, 2010, and 2011. I missed the 2012 conference. It's a good time...learn some things and have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 Perrysburg went over 300 inches a few days ago. The highest ever recorded for them since she started keeping records back in the the 80s. Probably had a higher total in the 70s but this years total will likely stand for awhile. They get snow into Late April on the hills there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I wonder if Sat. night, we could see some higher elevation love over the Finger lakes/Souther Tier regions. Looks like slop/rain for most lower elevations of W/C NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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