tsteel Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 and for the record.. verzsyla said storms would only be in the i-80 corridor area on the 10PM news.. woops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 and for the record.. verzsyla said storms would only be in the i-80 corridor area on the 10PM news.. woops. He did get his twitter account on there tho Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Got over 1.00" in the gauge between the two rounds of storms last night. Second round had so much close lightning .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS NNE INTO THE UPR OH VLY AND ERN GRT LKS... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THU. CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS REINFORCED BY NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NRN MN...AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER N TX ACCELERATES NNE INTO IL. AT THE SFC...APPROACH OF TX IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE INDUCING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ATTM ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER CNTRL MS. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TNGT...REACHING NW OH BY 12Z THU. ELSEWHERE...WEAK BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM CNTRL VA/WRN MD NWD INTO W CNTRL PA/WRN NY. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS NNE INTO OH VLY/ERN GRT LKS TODAY/TNGT... SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT/LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM TX UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TODAY. STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...AND UPLIFT ALONG BACK-DOOR FRONT NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN. BUT WITH FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH/...SUSTAINED CONFLUENT FLOW ULTIMATELY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE...AND NEAR BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY FARTHER N...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. BUT CONTINUED DEEPENING OF SFC WAVE AND STRENGTHENING OF WIND PROFILES /WITH 700 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS/ SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KY NNEWD INTO OH AND PERHAPS FAR SE IND. ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE WELL AHEAD OF EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND COMPARATIVELY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES /GREATER SFC HEATING/ MAY SUPPORT SCTD...MAINLY PULSE SVR STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF GA...AND OVER WV/VA. ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/14/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1438Z (10:38AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0058NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1210 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA, WV, AND WESTERN PACONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELYVALID 141609Z - 142009ZSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS WV, WHICH SHOULDBECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME TODAY ACROSS NEIGHBORING PORTIONSOF THE APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE TOPOGRAPHY OFWV ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS VAAND WV. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE SPC WRF, ARW, AND NMM APPEAR TO BECAPTURING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THE BEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES ARE MODEST -- AROUND 1.25" -- WHICH IS NORMALLY AT THELOWER FRINGE OF FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2000 J/KG WHILE 0-3 KM SHEARREACHES 25+ KTS, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WET MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION.SLIGHT NORTHWARD PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE AREA, PARTIALLY CAUSED BYYESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES IN A VERYSHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY CAPTURINGTHIS ACTIVITY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5" ARE EXPECTED.LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" SHOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA.ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1248 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN PA/ERN WV/NWRN VA AND THE WRN MDPANHANDLECONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 141748Z - 141945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THISAFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK. WW NOTANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED/ISOLATED NATURE OF RISK.DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSDEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR AND W OF THEDAMMING/WEDGE FRONT BACKED UP TO THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.IN THIS AREA...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONGOINGDIURNAL HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/...FUELING THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT.THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE FAR ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOWALOFT...THUS LIKELY LIMITING OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERITY. THATBEING SAID...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ACOUPLE OF STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS -- WITH GUSTY WINDS ANDHAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THE MAIN RISK. WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TOREMAIN LOW-END AND ISOLATED...WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...THOUGH RISKCOULD INCREASE FROM THE W INTO PARTS OF THIS REGION LATER THISAFTERNOON/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OVERALL EWD PROGRESS OFTHE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM...GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0450 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / WRN PA / WVCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...VALID 142150Z - 142315ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRNNY...WRN PA AND WV. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARYTHREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLYEVENING.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KYWITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO NW PA. SFCDEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MLCAPEIS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMSARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGESTINSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSSTHE ERN PART OF WW 155. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE NERNPART OF THE WATCH WITH OTHER NEW CELLS INITIATING ALONG THEINSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVING NNEWD. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ANDMODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE PITTSBURG PA WSR-88DVWP...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERETHREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN PA AND WRN NY DUE TO A DAMMING COLDFRONTAL AIRMASS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN CREST...BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 EL6 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 705 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LAKE ERIE LAKE ONTARIO * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...WW 154...WW 155... DISCUSSION...SPORADIC SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TO NNEWD ACROSS WW AREA IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE WARM-SECTOR/BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...LOCATED W OF FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER WRN PA. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND 500-1000 J/KG INITIAL MLCAPE...LATTER DECREASING GRADUALLY WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...EDWARDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Not even a drop of rain here today. Â That won't be the case tomorrow, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 There's a decent post frontal moisture flow, with the steering almost due north.  This set-up would have been nice 2 or 3 months ago. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 There's a decent post frontal moisture flow, with the steering almost due north.  This set-up would have been nice 2 or 3 months ago. Lol. 2-3 mos ago....what about today....Received a picture from a friend in Chicago suburbs with snow on the ground this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 235 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-180245- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0001.140518T0800Z-140518T1200Z/ GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER- VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND- WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...NEW PHILADELPHIA... CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE... ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL... WOODSFIELD...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE... BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA... KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG... LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE... WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE... FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...PARSONS 235 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 ...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. * IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS. && $$ 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC003-125-280100- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0033.140528T0009Z-140528T0100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 809 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 900 PM EDT * AT 804 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR IMPERIAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... IMPERIAL... MCDONALD... OAKDALE... CARNEGIE... BRIDGEVILLE... UPPER SAINT CLAIR... MOUNT LEBANON... BETHEL PARK... MCMURRAY... BRENTWOOD... BALDWIN... MCKEESPORT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4031 7979 4010 8001 4042 8034 4051 8018 TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 308DEG 30KT 4042 8017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC003-129-280100- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0034.140528T0019Z-140528T0100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 819 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... WESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 900 PM EDT * AT 817 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PENN HILLS TO MOUNT WASHINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH... FOX CHAPEL... NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... MILLVALE... ETNA... NEW KENSINGTON... MOUNT WASHINGTON... EAST LIBERTY... SPRINGDALE... PENN HILLS... OAKLAND... SOUTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4043 7936 4019 7956 4046 8006 4059 7981 TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 308DEG 26KT 4052 7982 4043 8001 $$ 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0128 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...NRN WV...NRN AND CNTRL VACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 281828Z - 282100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WILL BEPOSSIBLE BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARYENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CNTRL OH SEWD INTO NRN VA.STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE INSTORM COVERAGE. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK AND THEREFORE AN ORGANIZEDSEVERE THREAT IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVORMARGINAL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDGUSTS ALWAYS POSSIBLE...JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014 VALID 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6-7 WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MEANDERING E-W FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 4 AND SHIFT SWD DAY 5-6. WED /DAY 4/...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH AN E-W FRONT. A MOIST...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND BELT OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE ONGOING MCS TO CONTINUE. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. BEYOND DAY 4...PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FRONT SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM KS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 5 BUT REMAINING WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHERE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE COVERAGE OF STORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DAYS 5-6. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE CORRIDORS OF HIGHER COVERAGE EVENTS WILL OCCUR GIVEN INFLUENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ..DIAL.. 06/01/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...WRN PA...SWRN NY...NRN WV...NRNKY...SERN INDIANACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 031610Z - 031845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE LOWERGREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF AWW IS UNLIKELY.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATEPRE-FRONTAL CU BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED WITHIN A BROAD AREAFROM THE OHIO RIVER VICINITY NWD TO LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT IS ANALYZEDFROM N OF TERRE HAUTE AND INDIANAPOLIS TO THE W SIDE OF CLEVELANDAND NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO. LIGHTNING HAS ALREADY BEEN DETECTEDALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF CLEVELAND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELYSCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO CONTINUEDDIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A WEAKLY CAPPED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAKASCENT ALONG AND PRECEDING THE FRONT BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTPER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...MLCAPE VALUESOF 500-1500 J/KG ARE ALREADY NOTED PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12ZWILMINGTON OHIO RAOB THAT FEATURES STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...ANDSOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BUOYANCYWILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SOMECONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION PROVIDED BY 25-40 KT OF FLOW SAMPLED BETWEEN2.5 AND 4 KM AGL PER AREA VWPS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPORADICINSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL...WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF SUCHRISK BOUNDED BY THE WRN FRINGES OF A MERIDIONALLYORIENTED...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND OVER THE APPALACHIANS...COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA AND S-CNTRL NYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 032034Z - 032230ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLYEVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THEISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN INTON-CNTRL PA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREATLAKES REGION...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO ADJACENTS-CNTRL NY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTOTHE EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENED IN THE WAKE OFEARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPEAROUND 500-1500 J/KG BOLSTERED BY MIDDLE-60S SFC DEWPOINTS. ASSUCH...STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WINDGUSTS CONTINUING -- AIDED BY 20-25 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM AGLSAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW --AS EVIDENCED BY QLCS FORWARD MOTION ONLY REACHING 35-40 KT -- AGREATER SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 A line of storms just fired up South of me. Started with a little lightning and thunder but now continuous lighting. South hills must be getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 hmm This is an interesting forecast for tonight.. Models are all over the place. Looks like the heaviest rain is going to be south of Pittsburgh though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Sorry to barge in on your forum but thought you all might have an interest in this  AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...WRN MD...NRN WV...ERN OHCONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADEVALID 081537Z - 081630ZSUMMARY...CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS PLANNED FOR PORTIONSOF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE UPCOMING1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.DISCUSSION...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCINGDMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY ONE TO TWO TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THISAFTERNOON...WARRANTING CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. THEFORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL PROVIDE FURTHERMETEOROLOGICAL DETAILS REGARDING THIS RISK...COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html...UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWDACROSS OH ATTM AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. ANASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN OH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVEACROSS THIS AREA AND PROMOTE NEW CONVECTIVE STORMS THIS AFTERNOONALONG/AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT AS MOISTURE INCREASES NWD. ALTHOUGHVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ATTM WHICH ARE LIMITINGEXTENSIVE DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...SOME BREAKS AREEXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION AREEXPECTED. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOONAND EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINALHAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...WESTERNPENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLANDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 081720Z - 081945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OFSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1007-MB LOW BETWEENCOLUMBUS AND MANSFIELD OHIO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTEXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NY AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWOF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT -- E.G. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO GAINPOTENTIAL BUOYANCY OWING TO A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATESDRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW -- REF. 12Z BNA RAOB DEPICTINGH7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 7 C/KM -- AND A FEED OF INSOLATION-STEEPENEDLOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM WV INTO SWRN PA.SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHINDA LEADING BAND OF WAA-RELATED CONVECTION IN WRN PA...AIDED BY SFCCONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST MID/UPPER-LEVELASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.WHILE ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN THE WARMSECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE ILN/PBZ VWPSSUGGESTS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLSTORMS. DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE WHERE SFCWINDS ARE MORE BACKED -- I.E. E OF A CONFLUENCE AXIS DRAWN N/S OVERWRN PA AND INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME SVR RISKCANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR W AS CENTRAL OHIO...THE GREATEST SVR RISKAND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FAR ERNOHIO EWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TOEXIST...COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN MD...FAR ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082051Z - 082245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF SFC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING EWD ACROSS OHIO. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG EXISTS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ENHANCED BY RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S -- AND BOUNDED TO THE E BY RAIN-COOLED/CLOUDY AIR. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES -- PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PBZ VWP SAMPLES UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WITH 25-30-KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS. THESE FACTORS WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY BOWING...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW LCLS AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS LIMITED. ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 40128090 41697965 41737866 41097837 39277913 38968050 39358107 40128090 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 553 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014 PAZ021-022-073-082230- ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-WESTMORELAND PA- 553 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY... NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTIES... AT 549 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL STREAMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH... OAKLAND... NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... MILLVALE... ETNA... EAST LIBERTY... WILKINSBURG... FOX CHAPEL... TURTLE CREEK... PENN HILLS... MONROEVILLE... PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. LAT...LON 4068 7954 4047 7945 4037 7999 4052 8003 $$ FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 SPC AC 101741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK GRAPHIC IN EASTERN STATES ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER EAST...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS. MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME AND CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY. A WEAKER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS WRN TX. ...SOUTHERN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND A SMALL PART OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...MEANWHILE RICHER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND AS INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATION DECREASES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE MODEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. THESE PROCESS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TX DRYLINE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX DRYLINE AS WELL AS ALONG SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LLJ. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... STRONGER DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CONTINUES EWD. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING...BUT BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. MULTICELL STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1905Z (3:05PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Slight risk today.  Also....   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1125 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY AND MUCH OFWV/EASTERN OH TO SOUTHWEST PACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 111625Z - 111830ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL ISEXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERNVA/EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV TO EASTERN OH/SOUTHWEST PA. THE REGIONIS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERTHE MIDWEST...WHILE A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYERSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERLIES MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY ANDUPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVERPREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER 12Z OBSERVEDSOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ASSURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AND SOMELOWER 80S. IN THE PRESENCE OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THIS WILLALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG THISAFTERNOON. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ARE LIKELYTO LEAD TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOONWITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WV/EASTERNOH AND WESTERN PA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATELYSTRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACEWILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEWSUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Â MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1232 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OFMD/NORTHERN VA/DC/WV PANHANDLECONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 111732Z - 111930ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITHDAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATEAFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OFMD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE AND THE DC METRO VICINITY. A WATCH ISLIKELY BY AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COINCIDES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARYBOUNDARY THAT ANGLES FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN PA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOEASTERN MD. THE AIR MASS ALONG /AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF/ THISBOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVELMOISTURE CONTINUES TO OCCUR /MIDDLE AND SOME UPPER 60S F SURFACEDEWPOINTS/. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT-TERM NUMERICALGUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUETO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND ADJACENT MD/WV...BUT AT LEAST 1000J/KG MLCAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH MID/LATEAFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. BENEATH A BELTOF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GENERALPREVALENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMAXIMIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARYWITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ANY STORMSDEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR CROSSING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWILL LIKELY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH CORRESPONDINGPOTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND...GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 280NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA259 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014MDC023-PAC003-005-007-019-051-059-063-125-129-WVC009-049-051-061-069-077-093-103-120100-/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.A.0280.140611T1900Z-140612T0100Z/THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 280 INEFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASIN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTYIN WESTERN MARYLANDGARRETTIN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIESIN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIAALLEGHENY BEAVER FAYETTEGREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELANDIN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIAARMSTRONG BUTLER INDIANAIN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIESIN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIABROOKE MARSHALL OHIOIN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIAMARION MONONGALIA PRESTONTUCKER WETZELTHIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BEAVER...BETHANY...BUTLER...FAIRMONT...GREENSBURG...INDIANA...KINGWOOD...KITTANNING...LATROBE...MORGANTOWN...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...OAKLAND MD...PARSONS...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...UNIONTOWN...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG AND WHEELING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC003-007-125-112215- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0049.140611T2137Z-140611T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 537 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 536 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BURGETTSTOWN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURGETTSTOWN... IMPERIAL... MOON... SEWICKLEY... ECONOMY BORO... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS STORM ALSO IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4064 8034 4056 8003 4032 8034 4036 8044 TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 203DEG 26KT 4041 8035 $$ KRAMAR/88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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