IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Based on WV imagery I believe that this is already close to closing off http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 pretty impressive thus far but I don't think it was progged to close off until SC/NC coast correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That low is deepening fairly quickly now as the phase is taking place as we speak and the trough is already neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That low is deepening fairly quickly now as the phase is taking place as we speak and the trough is already neutral tilt. hmmm this may or may not have an impact on it whether or not it shifts west a bit. I don't think so but we'll see, the EURO came east somewhat today so that was comforting, great find though yank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that stronger or right on par for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has the timing changed in the past couple of hours? Still seeing snow enter tri state area around midnight tonight and leaving the area around friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like that could be a little light OES on an SE wind over Suffolk County. Or maybe not, but I wasn't expecting flurries out here at this time and there they are. Snizzle and 22F at 5:30 in Smithtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What you actually have right now is a meso low I believe that has formed within the MCS crossing Florida. That's why all of a sudden you have 3 separate lows showing up. The NAM nailed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Christie declares a state of emergency yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What you actually have right now is a meso low I believe that has formed within the MCS crossing Florida. That's why all of a sudden you have 3 separate lows showing up. The NAM nailed this. so the NAM did not have convective feedback issues. good for the NAM for not being drunk at some point during this storm maturity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Christie declares a state of emergency yet again I believe it's warranted, nobody should be on the roads tomorrow while this is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 so the NAM did not have convective feedback issues. good for the NAM for not being drunk at some point during this storm maturity Earthlight mentioned that it was the higher resolution of the NAM picking up on it when others were calling it convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Earthlight mentioned that it was the higher resolution of the NAM picking up on it when others were calling it convective feedback. earthlight has been on fire this year and you haven't been too bad yourself. minus your episode earlier in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Based on current trends this should be sub 1000mb by the time it completes its cross over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 earthlight has been on fire this year and you haven't been too bad yourself. minus your episode earlier in the season Sometimes I let things get the best of me but I've tried to take a different approach. I wish I was a moderator I practically live on this site this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sometimes I let things get the best of me but I've tried to take a different approach. I wish I was a moderator I practically live on this site this time of year. me as well the summer time I can care less. im in the convective graveyard of SW Suffolk so severe storms are scares as hens teethe for me but yea this storm looks like it may be quite a bit stronger than modeled with the current trends. dare I say a sub 970 mb south of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Tornado warning now east of Sarasota That's a nasty squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR continuing to come into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Tornado warning now east of Sarasota That's a nasty squall line yea im not going to be shocked if a few spin ups and tornados occur down there. very 93' esque yank. maybe premature asking this but in the end im thinking this storm goes for top 5 NESIS what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Based on current trends this should be sub 1000mb by the time it completes its cross over Florida. wouldnt that be stronger than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Tornado warning now east of Sarasota That's a nasty squall line And I just saw people are stuck on a ride in Busch gardens in Tampa. Can't even imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out what JM and Earthlight were talking about. Look how much warmer the HRRR is at 925 than 850 @ 5z already (they get even further apart as the run goes on)...that really has me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CBS 2 and CBS 4 both calling for 4-8 in NYC... seems low considering what I've seen this afternoon and the radar so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out what JM and Earthlight were talking about. Look how much warmer the HRRR is at 925 than 850 @ 5z already...that really has me worried. that cant be good. that would cut down on accumulations a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 that cant be good. that would cut down on accumulations a good bit Yea and there could be an even warmer layer in between so we will have to watch the spread on both the layers as the new runs come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 temps ticking down...23.7/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here in Roslyn Heights, we're already below the forecast low and sitting at 20.5F with a dew of 12. Certainly could factor in at some point, based on the models even a 2-3 degree difference throughout the column could make a huge difference in snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here in Roslyn Heights, we're already below the forecast low and sitting at 20.5F with a dew of 12. Certainly could factor in at some point, based on the models even a 2-3 degree difference throughout the column could make a huge difference in snowfall totals. My forecast low was 25F, and I'm already at 23.8F in Bay Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My forecast low was 25F, and I'm already at 23.8F in Bay Ridge. im officially now concerned of sleet with the 925mb map that was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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