forkyfork Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 the low level jet is impressive on model soundings. ewr mixes into 45+ kt winds on nam bufkit tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think you mean 10/7/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I honestly can't wait for an intense storm. Karen was such a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I honestly can't wait for an intense storm. Karen was such a buzzkill.Go to the main weather page and follow hurricanejosh's chase of typhoon Danas, that thing is probably borderline cat 5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Go to the main weather page and follow hurricanejosh's chase of typhoon Danas, that thing is probably borderline cat 5 now.Oh I have been, I mean for this area. China canes are cool but it's hard to hold interest in a storm on the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Oh I have been, I mean for this area. China canes are cool but it's hard to hold interest in a storm on the other side of the world.Yeah, I know that. Sorry for the OT and hopefully we can mix down some good winds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The 4km has a strong squall line moving through around 21z with a 50 kt LLJ and embedded mesos in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 We start mixing 900-950mb winds of 40-45kts down early this afternoon. So we can see some wind gusts near 40mph before the squall line arrives late this afternoon. If the line stays strong, we could see higher winds, just ahead of it. Also there is chance of isolated tornado, with NAM and GFS showing curved hodographs and some cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Low level winds are very strong -- the NAM was mixing down 45+ kt winds just from diurnal heating ahead of the squall line. We will have to carefully watch any clearing which will really aid in surface based instability. But even without it the high dew points/weak instability could lead to a thin but strong squall line capable of bringing those winds down. Might be a no-lightning scenario too. There is enough low level turning for concern of a few spinups within the line as well, as blue wave mentioned. Interesting day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 We have had mid 60s dews for a few days now, we may get to near 70 today. Anytime we get a few days of high dews in October, look out. In the past we do better in these setups when the high dew airmass is in place for a few days instead of getting advected the day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1950.htmlAny sun today this can turn into a big severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 New outlook has 30% risk of damaging winds west of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The latest HRRR shows the line moving through NJ and NYC between 2-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 One tornado warning already now on the VA/MD border. I think we might get tor watched today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tor watch NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Boom, I was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 One tornado warning already now on the VA/MD border. I think we might get tor watched today.good call chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 good call chief. The event a few years ago that produced the tornados in Queens was a similar setup to this. These high shear low cape setups are great for brief spinups and gusty straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 30/20 is pretty good for this area regarding the threat. I would have thought the damaging wind probs would have been higher Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (<5%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (<5%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (70%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The HRRR has an interesting scenario with discrete cells popping ahead of the main line and growing into a possible QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The event a few years ago that produced the tornados in Queens was a similar setup to this. These high shear low cape setups are great for brief spinups and gustly straight line winds. Yes I remember that too well, I feel like we do best with these types of setups (especially the last half decade) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 We are going to have to watch this very closely. - 4k has us clearing out once the showers in southern NJ go north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 spcwrf is fairly aggressive with a line of strong storms this afternoon. it won't take much to mix down these winds...the nam mixes down 50kt. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/refd_1000m_f21.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty impressive shear moving towards us this afternoon, best I have seen around here in a while. - the clouds have that look today too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The HRRR has an interesting scenario with discrete cells popping ahead of the main line and growing into a possible QLCS. 12z NAM is coming in with a similar situation. Small cells ahead of the main line start popping from noon and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 12z 4k sim looking pretty nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 12z 4k sim looking pretty nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Not sure we are going to see clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Strong shear axis over us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Strong shear axis over us now it just means we're starting to get sfc cape... the winds have been overhead for a few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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