Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I've chased on the Peninsula before-- Jimena 2009. It was a good chase. Yeah, the angle of approach is often a problem with Baja 'canes, but I lucked out with that one and the cyclone's eye passed directly over me. For chasing on the Peninsula, I'll always fly down to Los Cabos and then drive up; driving down from the USA is problematic: Jimena was one of the better Cat 2s I've been in-- it had real kick: I imagine Norbert 08 would have been similar to Jimena 09. I don't think 94E hoever will be like Jimena. It's more likely to be a strong TS or weak hurricae at most IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 So when is the last time two cyclones actually formed in the CPac basin in a 72 hour period? And they are monitoring another disturbance with a 40% chance of development. 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 1. The first visible images of the day revealed that the area of low pressure located about 1050 miles west-southwest of Kauai Hawaii has a well-defined low level circulation center. Given thunderstorms have been persistent with this feature, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will likely be issuing advisories on tropical depression Three-C. This system has a near 100 percent chance of development during the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Holy cow. We now have TD 3-C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs. I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC. The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Is the high level of CPAC activity correlated with the low level of NATL activity? I recall reading somewhere that there was some type of correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs. I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC. The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point. They are not boring! CPAC rarely gets stuff nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Is the high level of CPAC activity correlated with the low level of NATL activity? I recall reading somewhere that there was some type of correlation. In this case, I don't think so. In most seasons El Nino seasons, yea, there is. This IMO is an anomly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 They are not boring! CPAC rarely gets stuff nowadays. Can't figure out what on earth is interesting about weak TS fish, but if that gives you wood, hey-- knock yerself out. It takes all kinds to make the world go 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs. I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC. The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point. Well, I can think of topics MORE boring - but I'll admit it isn't exactly excitement city, LOL. Iniki still makes up for a lot of boring fish, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well, I can think of topics MORE boring - but I'll admit it isn't exactly excitement city, LOL. Iniki still makes up for a lot of boring fish, though. Iniki was mega-hawt-- but also an extremely rare event. People think of Hawai'i as hurricane country, but it really isn't. In the last 50 years, there've been two direct hits-- Iniki 1992 (a Cat 4 that was admittedly awesome) and a Iwa 1982 (a Cat 1 that just brushed the N islands). But the CPAC even sucks if you're cool looking at hawt fish-- cuz there aren't any. It's basically a horrible basin-- just a half-step above the SATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Iniki was mega-hawt-- but also an extremely rare event. People think of Hawai'i as hurricane country, but it really isn't. In the last 50 years, there've been two direct hits-- Iniki 1992 (a Cat 4 that was admittedly awesome) and a Iwa 1982 (a Cat 1 that just brushed the N islands). But the CPAC even sucks if you're cool looking at hawt fish-- cuz there aren't any. It's basically a horrible basin-- just a half-step above the SATL. I perosnally don't consider it a real basin, hey they are combined in HURDAT. But due to lack of storms, it's fun when a storm does get going. That what makes the SATL cool as well. And if you want a really good CPAC cane, there was John 94 and Ioke 06. Iwa 82 is no joke, it was a Cat 1 that came very close to Oahu and Kaui. Also, 54 years ago (just outside of your 50 window) Hurricane Dot in 1959 passed just south of the Big Island as a major and then struck as a Cat 1. Outside of the main islands., Hurricane Nele in 1985 passed through the uninhabited northwestern islands. A few tropical storms have also came within 50 miles from Hawaii: Hurricane Daillia in 1989 came close ot the Big Island, Hurricane Gil in 1983 passed just north of Ohau and last month Flossie passed about 50 miles from Maui as a weak TS. In addition, several storms have threanted to hit the island but never did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I perosnally don't consider it a real basin, hey they are combined in HURDAT. But due to lack of storms, it's fun when a storm does get going. That what makes the SATL cool as well. And if you want a really good CPAC cane, there was John 94 and Ioke 06. Iwa 82 is no joke, it was a Cat 1 that came very close to Oahu and Kaui. Also, 54 years ago (just outside of your 50 window) Hurricane Dot in 1959 passed just south of the Big Island as a major and then struck as a Cat 1. Outside of the main islands., Hurricane Nele in 1985 passed through the uninhabited northwestern islands. A few tropical storms have also came within 50 miles from Hawaii: Hurricane Daillia in 1989 came close ot the Big Island, Hurricane Gil in 1983 passed just north of Ohau and last month Flossie passed about 50 miles from Maui as a weak TS. In addition, several storms have threanted to hit the island but never did. They get brushed a lot, but the only red-meat landfall was Iniki. As you said, Dot missed as a major, and I'm not saying Iwa wasn't destructive, but it was a Cat 1 and it didn't actually make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 P.S. A much sexier event in 1959 was the EPAC's only known Cat-5 landfall-- near Manzanillo, MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 155 years since the San Diego hurricane. Don't know what the frequency of those are. Probably takes the mother of warm ENSO events as well... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/ams-sandiego.ppt#14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 155 years since the San Diego hurricane. Don't know what the frequency of those are. Probably takes the mother of warm ENSO events as well... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/ams-sandiego.ppt#14 it may IMO pulled a Katrina 67 and hit the northern GOC first before hitting California given that it was in La Paz in late September of 1858. According to the blw, a hurricane was in La Paz a few days earlier. https://www.google.com/search?q=1858+la+paz+hurricane&btnG=Search+Books&tbm=bks&tbo=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 In rained in Bakersfield in the Summer of 1992 for the first time in I don't remember. We did a field trip to visit Platform Esther near Long Beach and it was almost Texas like humidity. I remember it well. And that was a warm ENSO. Imagine SoCal Summer rains in a neutral season? Incroyable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 In rained in Bakersfield in the Summer of 1992 for the first time in I don't remember. We did a field trip to visit Platform Esther near Long Beach and it was almost Texas like humidity. I remember it well. It was from Darby 92 probs. 1992 PHS is almost like the 2005 AHS of the EPAC, just hate how that season is Cat 5 less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 12Z Euro has it weaker and further W. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 12Z Euro has it weaker and further W. Blah. 18zGFS shows not the 94E and the AOIL left of it, but the storm after that coming close. Not all hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 18zGFS shows not the 94E and the AOIL left of it, but the storm after that coming close. Not all hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 0z and 12z GFS makes it stronger as well, but further way from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Two most recent CMC runs show a TS hitting Sinaloa and a hurricane hitting Baja California Sur in 1o days. In the meantime, 94E looks close to forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The season sucks but icebreaker's doing a good job with the thread subtitles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 The season sucks but icebreaker's doing a good job with the thread subtitles. Thanks Josh! I do it just for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 TD 9E has formed, should become 'Ivo'. Not exactly the tingle-worthy forecast we were hoping for a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 TD 9E has formed, should become 'Ivo'. Not exactly the tingle-worthy forecast we were hoping for a couple of days ago 145110W5_NL_sm.gif The one to follow on various globals in about 8 days should be, judging from model trends, stronger, and Los Cabos are within the GEFS ensemble spray. 996 mb or stronger, or it seems about half the GEFS see a hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The one to follow on various globals in about 8 days should be, judging from model trends, stronger, and Los Cabos are within the GEFS ensemble spray. 996 mb or stronger, or it seems about half the GEFS see a hurricane... Some CMC/GFS runs have brought this to a sub-980 mbar intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Sorry for the snow map lol, but this shows the rainfall GFS is showing for the Mojave desert through 120hrs. It looks like it is funneling moisture up the Gulf of CA and then up the CO river into the Mojave, hence the Mojave gets the Jackpot for the first time ever. We'll see if it happens. GFS has shown it for multiple runs now and has support from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 TD9 still looks like two distinct systems to me and I look forward to watching it try to get itself together. Pretty huge circulation. It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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