Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[Trent]

Interesting to see the flood watch for tonight. It's been an odd year thus far. Almost nothing noteworthy in the weather department ... a very dry start to spring that turned into a wetter start to summer. 

 

Surprisingly, the lake breeze effect wasn't that strong this year compared to previous years. We are getting to the point where the lake breeze effect on temperatures will be nominal. 

 

I'd be fine if the expected derecho sets up a bit south of here. The last thing we need is a derecho that crosses Lake Erie from the west.

[Trent]

And here was the 2012-2013 snow map:

 

You can barely tell there's a secondary snow belt

 

[NEOH]

Interesting to see the flood watch for tonight. It's been an odd year thus far. Almost nothing noteworthy in the weather department ... a very dry start to spring that turned into a wetter start to summer. 

 

Surprisingly, the lake breeze effect wasn't that strong this year compared to previous years. We are getting to the point where the lake breeze effect on temperatures will be nominal. 

 

I'd be fine if the expected derecho sets up a bit south of here. The last thing we need is a derecho that crosses Lake Erie from the west.

 

We usually have day after day of lake breezes... but not this year. When they did push onshore it wasn't until late in the afternoon, and the temp difference wasn't that extreme. Definitely odd.

 

It has been such a boring year weather wise, I'm hoping to see a squall line racing across the lake from the west tonight. Although I know that type of set-up generally don't bode well for your area.

[LakeEffectOH]

Looks like the more interesting weather will be to our south and west.  Looking at the satellite loop, it looks like the cloud layer isn't going away too soon, thus not much heating going on.  In fact, temps in NE Ohio are dropping due to clouds and lake breeze.

 

Chances are that we see some good rainfall, but nothing excessive.  Chances for heavier rain and severe weather increase as you head south and west.  I don't think, for the CLE area, this will be a memorable event.

 

CLE weather (with the exception of Sandy) has really sucked for the past year and a half.

[NEOH]

Looks like the more interesting weather will be to our south and west.  Looking at the satellite loop, it looks like the cloud layer isn't going away too soon, thus not much heating going on.  In fact, temps in NE Ohio are dropping due to clouds and lake breeze.

 

Chances are that we see some good rainfall, but nothing excessive.  Chances for heavier rain and severe weather increase as you head south and west.  I don't think, for the CLE area, this will be a memorable event.

 

CLE weather (with the exception of Sandy) has really sucked for the past year and a half.

 

CLE still seems pretty bullish on the rain potential. Instability isn't going anywhere with the overcast skies and sprinkles.

 

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SURGE UPWARD AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOW FOR HEATING TO TAKE PLACE AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. DEW

POINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CLIMBING WITH EXPECTED SURFACE VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. ALL IN ALL THIS SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO FEED THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH ANY INTERACTIONS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE. SIGNIFICANT

RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH DAY AT AROUND 9000 FEET BUT INCREASES TO OVER 12000 FEET LATER TONIGHT MAKING THUNDERSTORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOES...HIGH RISK SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT OUR WESTERN PORTIONS REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RISK AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SEVERE THREATS STILL BEING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. STILL CANT RULE OUT TORNADOES AS A THREAT AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

 

[LakeEffectOH]

THE WAITING GAME BEGINS.  SO FAR ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE WELL
CAPPED AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THE
OTHER ISSUE AT HAND IS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.
WE NEVER CLEARED OUT OR HAD ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AS EXPECTED
AND THIS IS ALSO LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION.

 

...Figured this would be the case...

 

High dewpoints are going into place, so we should get a fair amount of rain.  HPC QPFs are backing off from 2.5 - 3" of rain to somewhere between 1" & !.5".  Sounds about right...nothing remarkable...NEXT!!!

[Trent]

It's been hovering in the mid 60s along the shore with fog/overcast skies. A very damp and cool day for mid June.

More garden soaking rain tonight ... yawn.

[LakeEffectOH]

It's been hovering in the mid 60s along the shore with fog/overcast skies. A very damp and cool day for mid June.

More garden soaking rain tonight ... yawn.          

 

       

More like Seattle than the Midwest.  The lakeshore area seems to get its severe weather during July & August when the lake is warmer.

[LakeEffectOH]

Severe thunderstorm watch for southern MI and western half of Ohio.  For CLE, NO WATCH FOR YOU!!!

 

Cleveland is a lousy place for big ticket weather events.  Chicago seems to be a better place for the interesting weather.

[Trent]

Severe thunderstorm watch for southern MI and western half of Ohio.  For CLE, NO WATCH FOR YOU!!!

 

Cleveland is a lousy place for big ticket weather events.  Chicago seems to be a better place for the interesting weather.

 

Ironically, it looked like it was going to turn out to be pretty active around here last night, but most of the area ended up dodging the bullet.

 

I had just fallen asleep when I heard my phone go off alerting the tornado warning around 11. One look at the radar and that couplet over the lake making a bee line toward Cuyahoga County got my attention. But within 10 minutes, it was obvious that cell was dying out and not making landfall ... for the best anyway.

 

The Derecho later in the night was unimpressive. The radar would have had you believe it was going to be rocking. We had 3 -5 minutes of intense lightning, but no wind. Judging by the PNS this morning, the severe reports stopped at 1:39 am, so it appears no one really had any significant winds from that. 

 

Not even a half inch of rain at CLE too. Looks like 0.2-0.5" for much of the Cleveland area.

 

An eventful night of uneventful weather.

[NEOH]

The squall line was pretty weak last night in terms of wind. Lot's of lighting and rain but that was about it. I thought for sure something interesting would happen with the tornado warned cell around 11pm... but it doesn't sound like it even made it onshore.

 

Fog/mist with strong NW'erly winds right now. Feels alot like Fall.

 

 

 

[OHweather]

A few severe reports did end up filling in on the east side today from last night's squall line...including trees downed in Chagrin Falls. Overall, it wasn't a bad event...with lots of supercells and tornado warnings near and south of route 30 in the evening...the 10 minutes of excitement in Cuyahoga County when the tornado warning was issued...and not a terrible squall line that came through.

 

However, the event didn't live up to the hype locally IMO and the squall line, despite being OK with gusty winds and a fair amount of lightning, wasn't a widespread damaging wind producer like the radar may have indicated...kind of seems like a close but no cigar situation. Luckily it's still just June 13th and we will have more chances for severe weather.

[Chinook]

There was that strong supercell over the lake, heading for Cleveland.  That would have caused a lot of damage if it was over the metro area. Who knows if it had a tornado over the lake? 

[Trent]

There was that strong supercell over the lake, heading for Cleveland.  That would have caused a lot of damage if it was over the metro area. Who knows if it had a tornado over the lake? 

 

Yeah, that was very ominous looking. When I heard the Tornado Warning and grabbed my phone to check the radar, I had this sinking feeling in my stomach when I saw the couplet and its direction. Who knows what that produced over the lake. Luckily that wound up not interacting with land. Had that been just a few miles to the south, it would have surely done some damage given the population density, even if it was a weak tornado.

[NEOH]

The ground is really starting to dry out. We could use some rain. Not feeling very confident today as the dying complex to the north will probably push an outlfow south of the lakeshore and keep this area cloudy/stable. Time will tell. Hopefully we can get a complex to roll through at some point to end this boring stretch of weather.

[Trent]

Our heaviest rain was on the first day of the month, and since then it's been quiet. You go a week without rain in this type of weather and things start drying very quickly.

IMBY, only dipped to 75 last night.

[OHweather]

Well, that was a very productive day. One round of pretty intense thunderstorms mid-late afternoon...I got caught in easy 65MPH wind gusts and had trees falling adjacent to the road I was driving on at the time in Solon...and then a never ending show of embedded storms with decent lightning tonight. I think the best action stays south Wednesday, tonight's convection is going to end up pushing an effective boundary down to like route 30. Unless we break into sun early on tomorrow and that boundary becomes diffuse or pushes north I think the best stuff will be south towards Mansfield/New Philly.

[NEOH]

Well, that was a very productive day. One round of pretty intense thunderstorms mid-late afternoon...I got caught in easy 65MPH wind gusts and had trees falling adjacent to the road I was driving on at the time in Solon...and then a never ending show of embedded storms with decent lightning tonight. I think the best action stays south Wednesday, tonight's convection is going to end up pushing an effective boundary down to like route 30. Unless we break into sun early on tomorrow and that boundary becomes diffuse or pushes north I think the best stuff will be south towards Mansfield/New Philly.

 

Nice to have a couple rounds of t'storms yesterday. The cloud to ground lightning was as intense as I've seen it last night. Very little wind though. Picked up just over an inch of rain... CLE had well over 2".

 

I heard there was quite a bit of tree damage in Solon. Hopefully we can get another round today... but as you mentioned southern areas are favored.

[Trent]

And just like that up to 5th wettest June on record in Cleveland.

[NEOH]

And just like that up to 5th wettest June on record in Cleveland.

 

I just noticed that CLE is now above 7.5" for the month. Eastern cuyahoga and geauga missed out on most of the rain yesterday. More to come over the next few days.

[NEOH]

Hopefully this awful pattern breaks soon. Not much rain Imby but the humidity and cloudy weather is getting old. CLe has had a tough time forecasting lately, but understandably given the pattern. Rain and some thunder out there again right now. At least we managed a decent afternoon.

[Trent]

I noticed that the Lake Erie water temperature at the Cleveland crib was 65 today. Normal is 70.

Clouds have kept water temperatures from rising despite slightly above normal air temperatures this summer.

Also of impressive note, CLE recorded its 15th consecutive day of rain today.

[NEOH]

I noticed that the Lake Erie water temperature at the Cleveland crib was 65 today. Normal is 70.

Clouds have kept water temperatures from rising despite slightly above normal air temperatures this summer.

Also of impressive note, CLE recorded its 15th consecutive day of rain today.

 

Hopefully after tomorrow we'll have an extended period of warm and sunny weather. While its nice to have a lush green lawn in July, I wouldn't mind taking a break from mowing.

 

It's just swampy out there this afternoon.

[Trent]

Over 2" in the rain gauge overnight. It never stops.

CLE now at 16 consecutive days of rain. I wish the NWS would post some stats. This has to be a record.

[NEOH]

Over 2" in the rain gauge overnight. It never stops.

CLE now at 16 consecutive days of rain. I wish the NWS would post some stats. This has to be a record.

 

"Only" an inch IMBY overnight. Seemed like it stormed all night though. Looks like areas just to the west and south saw the heaviest rain. More to come this afternoon... if the sun can pop out for awhile we might get a few severe storms.

[carumba]

Over 2" in the rain gauge overnight. It never stops.

CLE now at 16 consecutive days of rain. I wish the NWS would post some stats. This has to be a record.

 

We got some serious, serious thunder near my place. I could hear & feel the claps, must've been no more than a mile or two away. Fantastic storm and, bonus, the power didn't flicker or go out!

[NEOH]

84/76... not often we see a DP that high around here. Storms are blowing up... Trent will need a canoe to get home. Looks like a storm is parked over downtown. Wonder if a weak lake breeze is enhancing the storms. The storms ahead of the line to the west aren't moving much.

[Trent]

Had 3" rain yesterday. CLE was the low spot for the region.

Crazy storms. Part of Cleveland City Hall's roof blew off. There's a tarp covering it this morning. Lots of trees snapped in half around my neighborhood.

Dry weather will be a nice change after 16 straight days of rain.

[Trent]

Flood waters are gushing from the Cuyahoga into Lake Erie. A giant stream of brown mud for miles into the Lake against the royal blue lake waters.

[OHweather]

Wednesday was the most productive day in our neck of the woods in the severe weather department in at least a few years...I can't think of any recent events that top yesterday in terms of the widespread nature of damaging winds/large hail AND severity of the wind in many cases...the spin ups and fairly widespread and in some cases significant flooding (the Cuyahoga River at the Old Portage gauge recorded its highest crest ever in over 100 years of data from that location) added to how memorable Wednesday was.

Personally I did not see any severe weather on Wednesday. I was driving from Macedona to Reminderville when the Cuyahoga tornado warning was ongoing and saw a lowering to my north when I peaked a hill in northern Macedona...Mark Johnson showed a picture of it from a closer perspective (when it was over Bedford) on the news...so based on that, the spotter reports of a rotating wall cloud over Bedford...and radar at the time the lowering I saw was the rotating wall cloud...although it was a few miles to my north. It wasn't close to dropping anything when I looked at it and ultimately never did.

My neighborhood was starting to flood a bit before 4PM when I had to leave for work and there were high water signs and cones all over the place at 1AM when I got home so I assume we flooded pretty good...although the waters had gone done before I returned home.

Some events that stand out other than the spin ups and flooding as rather significant include the winds that hit the western lakeshore...that based on radar detecting 80+ knots just a few hundred feet off the ground with and reports of widespread tree/some structural damage in that area were likely stronger than 75MPH...fairly widespread straight line wind damage in Erie/Huron Counties...and the 86MPH "measured" gust in Shelby (Richland County). Almost all of northern and central Ohio saw at least scattered damage, but those are a few of the more significant events that I could find. The damage across parts of NW OH was also rather widespread and significant suggesting that some 75+MPH winds also occurred there.

Unfortunately I was working way too much to really track things leading into Wednesday...was expecting severe but this was a rather high end event. It looks like we'll get rather hot for a while starting this weekend with an upper ridge parking overhead into a good chunk of next week.