SRRTA22 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 SPC has just S and W of the city in slight risk tomorrow. "...IL-NJ... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PERIOD. ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL POSE RISK OF OCNL HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR FRONT...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR KEEPS HODOGRAPH SIZE LIMITED...EXCEPT IN VERY NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR...THOUGH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUPPORT OF TSTM ORGANIZATION. 60S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF MOST PERSISTENT INSOLATION. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The 12z high res NAM hits the area with a pretty solid MCS late tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Oh this is WONDERFUL! Snow and severe weather within weeks of each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear and marginal lapse rates could support organized convection as some have stated. High resolution forecast models show a vort max coming along the top of the highest ridge heights between 15 and 21z Wednesday, tracking from the Ohio Valley through Pennsylvania. This could provide enough forcing for convection along a narrow axis as it shifts east. It will be interesting to see if anything can get organized beyond scattered convection with the aforementioned marginally favorable 0-6km wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 0z 4K NAM still pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Wow 06 4K NAM looks pretty intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Looks like the spc took new jersy out of the slight risk for storms today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Looks like the spc took new jersy out of the slight risk for storms today..... That would be incorrect, although our area is more in the risk as of the latest outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 If the 06z NAM has any clue, their could be some bowing to the line right as it approaches the area centered near NE NJ and NYC. That could locally enhance any damaging wind threats. Still going to be cool to see the first thunderstorms of the season, even if they are below severe limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 If the 06z NAM has any clue, their could be some bowing to the line right as it approaches the area centered near NE NJ and NYC. That could locally enhance any damaging wind threats. Still going to be cool to see the first thunderstorms of the season, even if they are below severe limits. I'd be careful with the marine layer if anything approaches the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'd be careful with the marine layer if anything approaches the coastline. This threat is mainly south and west of NYC. The SPC outlook has NYC as the northeastern cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The 00z SPC WRF has the core of the storms over Central and Southern NJ for tonight But it has a nasty squall line coming in afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The 12z NAM has the marine inversion by by 21z, for NYC NE. This will likely prevent any t-storms from producing severe wind gusts, late today or early tonight. However, with some drier air throughout column, there is good possibility for some small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The 12z NAM has the marine inversion by by 21z, for NYC NE. This will likely prevent any t-storms from producing severe wind gusts. However, with some drier air throughout column, there is good possibility for some small hail. What about those of us west of NYC? You know 50% of this forum is west of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 12z NAM is north and more widespread with the convection for later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Anywhere SW of NYC, looks better for strong-severe wind gusts, with any t-storms late this afternoon. With the marine layer slower to move in What about those of us west of NYC? You know 50% of this forum is west of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 12z NAM showing the cut off in instability well, right around KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Storms look pretty healthy right now over eastern Ohio. I know they are projected by the high res NAM to miss just to the north but the projection right now looks south of what the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 12z NAM showing the cut off in instability well, right around KMMU My other least favorite part of spring on Long Island: watching a nasty line of T-storms over NJ die to nothing but some showers east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 12z NAM showing the cut off in instability well, right around KMMU Impressive to see 2000+ CAPE IMBY for early April being depicted on the NAM. Some cumulus clouds are popping up now as well, indicating that there is definitely some instability here. Also into the 80s (again) here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The radar is very impressive over central PA. The whole line is currently warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The radar is very impressive over central PA. The whole line is currently warned. Yeah let's see how well it holds together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Two strong lines out over PA and Upstate NY/Ohio. Hopefully we all get to hear our first rumble of the season BTW I'm pretty sure a seabreeze came through at newark. 69F with a SE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 i think that line will make it here in elevated form. nam bufkit shows around 700 j of cape above the stable layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm currently headed to Monroe county in northeastern PA ill let you all know how the line of storms are when they arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 i think that line will make it here in elevated form. nam bufkit shows around 700 j of cape above the stable layer Yeah Upton is going with the 'numerous showers and thunderstorms' wording for tonight and no mention of severe weather, gusty winds, hail etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 See, at a minimum we should be under what I would call a "Severe Thunderstorm Advisory." As the line grows closer to us, certainly for the 6:00 pm news product, I'd put up a watch if the line isn't showing any signs of deteriorating and then 45-60 minutes out, throw up a warning. The NYC Metro Area is home to over 20 million people, I'd say less than 10% are thinking about a severe thunderstorm today. The weather is absolutely GORGEOUS outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The current depiction of the NAM high res radar vs current radar is pretty poor. I thought that model was supposed to be good at forecasting convection. If you were to believe the NAM, that stuff in NE PA is just rain showers. Mt. Holly removed thunder from the zone graphic forecast for my area, not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 See, at a minimum we should be under what I would call a "Severe Thunderstorm Advisory." As the line grows closer to us, certainly for the 6:00 pm news product, I'd put up a watch if the line isn't showing any signs of deteriorating and then 45-60 minutes out, throw up a warning. The NYC Metro Area is home to over 20 million people, I'd say less than 10% are thinking about a severe thunderstorm today. The weather is absolutely GORGEOUS outside. From Mt. Holly .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. Upton makes no mention of anything severe so I would disagree that the any advisory or watch is needed. The public is already weary of all the named winter storms and hyping of blizzards that never came. You can't put out an advisory/watch/warning everytime we get a thundershower. As long as its mentioned that we are getting thunderstorms I think people get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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