Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II

[Zelocita Weather]

Tough to fight March....

[SnowyCane22]

I asked this in the other forum..wondering if anyone hear can shed some insight - so my Question - It may be considered weenie, but ya never learn till you ask... living close to the New Jersey coast is there anyway we can see accumulating snowfall totals that match inland areas if things go best case scenario or even a mixture of model solutions? I am not looking for specific amounts just trying to gauge what impacts down this way for those of us in limbo forum wise between nyc and philly... Or is the setup not conducive no matter the track for anything worth getting excited about down this way? Thanks guys

 

[jm1220]

the JMA has temp issues for the Jersey Shore and LI

If it comes down heavily enough I would think it's primarily snow. The winds backing around to more of a northerly direction is key to draining cold enough air in here and also the dynamics would help if we can get the CCB to develop over us. The main batch of precip also looks to hit at night. The trends today are certainly more positive than negative.

[IsentropicLift]

I asked this in the other forum..wondering if anyone hear can shed some insight - so my Question - It may be considered weenie, but ya never learn till you ask... living close to the New Jersey coast is there anyway we can see accumulating snowfall totals that match inland areas if things go best case scenario or even a mixture of model solutions? I am not looking for specific amounts just trying to gauge what impacts down this way for those of us in limbo forum wise between nyc and philly... Or is the setup not conducive no matter the track for anything worth getting excited about down this way? Thanks guys

 

The Toms River area is still very much in game.

[ace0927]

If it comes down heavily enough I would think it's primarily snow. The winds backing around to more of a northerly direction is key to draining cold enough air in here and also the dynamics would help if we can get the CCB to develop over us. The main batch of precip also looks to hit at night. The trends today are certainly more positive than negative.

wouldnt the distance from the mid-level centers be a detriment from getting into the best dynamics? It was the same issue in Dec 1992, elevation areas snowed and low lying places got very little snow except on the back end...like that storm this can easily be a 34-36 degree rain/wind event.

[Allsnow]

Sref snow probs are pretty sexy 1 inch or more is 90% and 4+ is close to 50% fwiw

[Snow_Miser]

Total precipitation on the 15z SREFs.

 

On their 3z run, they didn't even have the 1 inch line into the South Shore of LI. The north shift continues it seems.

 

[Kaner587]

wouldnt the distance from the mid-level centers be a detriment from getting into the best dynamics? It was the same issue in Dec 1992, elevation areas snowed and low lying places got very little snow except on the back end...like that storm this can easily be a 34-36 degree rain/wind event.

this will likely not look remotely close to dec 1992.  But i agree for coastal areas there is a fine line, but for sure even if you start as rain it goes over to snow...and accumulates. Unlike Dec 1992. And this is on all model guidance

[IsentropicLift]

18z NAM coming in a hair north so far through hr 27 with the surface low.

[yl715]

Nam is also a bit slower. 

[IsentropicLift]

Total precipitation on the 15z SREFs.

 

On their 3z run, they didn't even have the 1 inch line into the South Shore of LI. The north shift continues it seems.

 

It's great to see that not all the amped up members are ARW members. In fact it's a pretty good spread.

[Kaner587]

theres about 3 complete whiffs on the SREF with 1-2 scrapes. Otherwise 14 major hits...esp NYC east. For the burbs this ratio would be weighted towards more scrapes and whiffs

[bmc10]

the JMA has temp issues for the Jersey Shore and LI

It is a good thing we have a block and nice area of confluence, or else this problem would be more of a concern for a greater area.

[nzucker]

I don't really see too much of a problem with temps assuming the moderate-heavy precip gets up here...850s are like -4C, ground temps are cold because March is running well below normal, and we maintain NE/NNE winds. I think people are forgetting it's only March 6th, not at all that late in the season for a snowfall. 

[IsentropicLift]

So far the NAM looks like it's maybe 6 hours slower with the surface low and maybe a tick further north, but not much.

[Kaner587]

euro ensembles NW of 00z and potentially of the OP but close. Don't know about precip for our area though.

[earthlight]

No large changes on the NAM through 30 hours.

[ace0927]

Total precipitation on the 15z SREFs.

 

On their 3z run, they didn't even have the 1 inch line into the South Shore of LI. The north shift continues it seems.

 

one thing that is bothering me and consistently showing up is the two distinct QPF maxes...one in the MA and one in SNE...skipping right over our area....which means we lose the best dynamics and qpf is probably overstated for our area

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 36 the surface low is centered near the KY/TN border. Nearly identical in position to hr 42 on the 12z NAM.

[kingwill42]

Would be Nice to have NAM look like GFS or JMA but I don't buy what the NAm is selling most of time especially not before 36 hrs of an Event. I think by tonight and tomorrow morning Nam will be in Range where U cant just dismiss it.

[jm1220]

wouldnt the distance from the mid-level centers be a detriment from getting into the best dynamics? It was the same issue in Dec 1992, elevation areas snowed and low lying places got very little snow except on the back end...like that storm this can easily be a 34-36 degree rain/wind event.

Dec 1992 seemed to perhaps max out too soon due to where it stalled, down off the Delmarva, and kept us very warm and also in strong east winds that piled up tons of water. This seems to want to head further east and back our winds to the north quicker. That's helpful in draining colder air in as the heavy precip is still ongoing. The concern is that we're kind of in a sucker hole where there's a transition period between the initial main system associated with the upper low, and a developing system associated with the phase/capture off New England, meaning there's a max over eastern New England and a max over the DC/Baltimore area. But if much of it falls at night, on northerly winds at a decent clip, we should hold off too much rain I would think.

[rossi]

Hr 36 the surface low is centered near the KY/TN border. Nearly identical in position to hr 42 on the 12z NAM.

Cant you let Earthlight do the analysis - its to confusing when its done twice  and its different.

 

Thanks,

 

Rossi

[nzucker]

Dec 1992 seemed to perhaps max out too soon due to where it stalled, down off the Delmarva, and kept us very warm and also in strong east winds that piled up tons of water. This seems to want to head further east and back our winds to the north quicker. That's helpful in draining colder air in as the heavy precip is still ongoing. The concern is that we're kind of in a sucker hole where there's a transition period between the initial main system associated with the upper low, and a developing system associated with the phase/capture off New England, meaning there's a max over eastern New England and a max over the DC/Baltimore area. But if much of it falls at night, on northerly winds at a decent clip, we should hold off too much rain I would think.

Ocean temperatures are also much colder now than in December. This is the best time for a storm with easterly flow to occur in terms of maintaining cold air in the boundary layer.

[ace0927]

Dec 1992 seemed to perhaps max out too soon due to where it stalled, down off the Delmarva, and kept us very warm and also in strong east winds that piled up tons of water. This seems to want to head further east and back our winds to the north quicker. That's helpful in draining colder air in as the heavy precip is still ongoing. The concern is that we're kind of in a sucker hole where there's a transition period between the initial main system associated with the upper low, and a developing system associated with the phase/capture off New England, meaning there's a max over eastern New England and a max over the DC/Baltimore area. But if much of it falls at night, on northerly winds at a decent clip, we should hold off too much rain I would think.

yup - see my next post expressing concern about the qpf maxes

[Ericjcrash]

You can't compare DEC 92 to this, different storm and a much much warmer ocean than early March.

[christhesnowman]

more neg tilt, precip shield quickyl moving north at hour 36, look out

at hour 36 nam looks very similiar to 12z gfs at hour 42 in terms of positioning but low is stronger

[ace0927]

Hr 36 the surface low is centered near the KY/TN border. Nearly identical in position to hr 42 on the 12z NAM.

and the upper levels are significantly different...which is basically all the matters, not the surface

[earthlight]

I think there is some room for this run to come a bit north of 12z. But not by a ton.

[IsentropicLift]

I really don't see any major changes for far through hr 39 that would have any significant positive or negative impacts for us.

[JSantanaNYC]

Hr 42 it is coming further north but I don't think it will look anything close the GFS.

We just need a north trend