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Possible major snow storm Feb 21st-22nd

Minnesota Meso

By Minnesota Meso,
in Central/Western States

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Chad A

Chad A

Posted
Posted

Anything between 8 and 12 inches puts this in the top 15 to top 3...  of 24 hour (1 day) snowfalls in Lincoln NE since 1948.

 

With that in mind - knowing the climatology, it is really tough to go beyond 12 inches no matter what the QPF fields say - although as I watch the 500 mb low and surface low get stacked early over southeast Colorado -with rapid cyclogenesis... this is one of my dream scenarios to get max snowfall in this region. 

 

http://snr.unl.edu/lincolnweather/records/1-2-3-day-snowfall-records.asp

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rockchalk83

rockchalk83

Posted
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The models have trended colder this evening...but the devils in the details. Though the clown maps look nice in southwest and south central Kansas...there is a pronounced warm nose between 850 and 750mb around the time the heaviest precipitation is falling (generally 03z-15zThu). I haven't checked the vertical velocities...but I don't think thunder and lightning are not out of the realm of possibility with this storm. 

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JSchwake28

JSchwake28

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As much as I love an anomolous storm like this, I can for the first time say this is going to suck. I'm sure Baro can attest, this is going to make for some very busy work in the central plains into Missouri. It looks like northern Missou will see a very appreciate snowfall while somewhere between KC and Springfield has a pretty decent ice storm. Will definetly be keeping an eye on any trends today but I think things look pretty set in stone in many areas this morning.

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jmt

jmt

Posted
Posted

Looking like the possibility of a Major Ice Storm for SE KS, SW MO and NW AR...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE INTO  THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE WEST THURSDAY  AFTERNOON.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND  SLEET MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING  BEFORE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO  NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE A  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE  HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...GUSTY EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20  MPH.* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY  EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS  LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING  TREES AND POWER LINES. DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES COULD OCCUR  IF HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE. ICING MAY ALSO OCCUR ON  ROADS INTO THURSDAY MORNING IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL  BELOW FREEZING.
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mnchaser

mnchaser

Posted
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I think MPX is jumping the gun some with issuing WSW'S as far north as they are...model qpf doesn't look too great north of I-90. Make more sense to wait for another couple model runs as snow isn't expected til thu afternoon at the earliest.

 

I agree,I'm honestly skeptical we even see 6 inches down here..granted ratios near 18:1 could help the cause. GEM and Euro have held a more steady track. 12z GFS would only drop 2 inches..which would still make it one of our biggest storms of the year!

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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I agree,I'm honestly skeptical we even see 6 inches down here..granted ratios near 18:1 could help the cause. GEM and Euro have held a more steady track. 12z GFS would only drop 2 inches..which would still make it one of our biggest storms of the year!

 

12z euro caving to the gfs with the less qpf & further south track...not surprising though, euro has been awful all winter up here. Next weeks potential storm, ride whatever the gfs shows.

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

Posted
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My inital  TrendCast run (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) for KS, OK, NE, and KS areas.

 

Dodge City Area: Looking for snow to begin 20/14Z with light to moderate snow, .2 to .5"/hr snowfall rates.  Then looking for the heaviest snow to begin around 21/14Z to 21/20Z with snowfall rates of 1.3"/hr possible.  In addition, showing some areas of freezin precip possible from 21/05Z to 07Z, and 21/11Z to 13Z.

 

Great Bend: Looking for snow to begin around 20/14Z with .3 to .5"/hr snowfall rates possible.  Then looking for the heavier snow to begin around 21/08Z through 21.19Z with snowfall rates up to 1.6"/hr possible during this time frame.

 

Wichita Area: Looking for the most significant snow to be around 21/11Z to 21/16Z, with some indications of 2"/hr snowfall rates possible during this time frame.  In additions, seeing some periods of mixing of rain, freezing rain from 21/09Z to 21/10Z and 21/23Z to 22/03Z.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

While some places will see ice, this does not have the classic setup for epic ice storm potential that you like to see in the plains, most notably a very cold and shallow arctic air mass already in place. The big story will be the heavy snow in locations not all that used to seeing that much snow. What is impressive about this event is the stout ridge axis extending through the central US...and the cold return flow which will define the cold conveyor belt once the trough ejects. Typically a warm frontal surge would be expected, but the strength of that high means most locations stay all snow N of the surface front minus locations farther E such as the Ozarks into N OK.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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As much as I love an anomolous storm like this, I can for the first time say this is going to suck. I'm sure Baro can attest, this is going to make for some very busy work in the central plains into Missouri. It looks like northern Missou will see a very appreciate snowfall while somewhere between KC and Springfield has a pretty decent ice storm. Will definetly be keeping an eye on any trends today but I think things look pretty set in stone in many areas this morning.

 

I am guessing you are forecasting MO and the plains locations for this event:)? Yes I agree, they aren't fun from a P-type issue. When I was forecasting at Meridian, storms like this were a dime-a-dozen. Scary to say, but we have literally seen two legit CO lows through the plains in the past two winters. Pretty pathetic. Looking ahead, and the globals are literally depicting a pez-dispenser of leeside lows ejecting into the plains the next two weeks. Will be interesting to see if this pattern lingers into spring...although it does look like an EPAC ridge beyond two weeks will put a short term kabash on the fun.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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Glad I didn't put MN in the sub title of this thread.  This is what I'm thinking for the Twin City metro area.....

 

Looking at the model's QPF for MSP I see this:

18z/2/19 GFS = .28
12z/2/19 Gem = .33 (estimate)
12z/2/19 Euro = .35

I wished I had the UKMET, but the site that I use didn't load in the 12z/19 run, but it appears as if it will be slightly lower.

So taking a average of the models it is real close to the .33 the GEM is showing. I'm expecting something like a 17:1 ratio out of this storm. That would equal about 5.5" of snow.

Now, looking at the Bufkit sounding forecast I see a dry layer on both the NAM and GFS that has to be overcome. With the winds out of the east, which is generally a drying wind, I think the models are to fast in saturating the column. So I have cut the QPF back by about 20% which may not be enough, but that would yield about 4.5" of snow.

Therefore I think the 2-4" is reasonable and confidence factor is about 7.5 out of 10. That means there is a 25% chance that what I'm thinking is wrong, if that be the case snow total would be around the 1-3" range.

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

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My 00Z Trendcast Run (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) is trending upward a bit for the snow amounts.

 

Great Bend Area:  Looking for snow to begin tommorrow around 11AM, with an initial round of light to moderate snow, there is a couple of hours of .5"/hr snow rates.  The big push begins around 6AM on the 21st to 6PM, with moderate to heavy snow, seeing forecasted rates of up to 1.7"/hr possible during this time frame.  Initial indications of 12-14" of snow possible in this area.

 

Dodge City Area:  Looking for snow to begin tommorrow around 8AM, with steady light snow, occassionally mixing with ice pellets and freezing rain, then a push of heavier snow on the 21st from 8AM to 3PM with snow rates of up to 1.4"/hr.  Initial snowfall projection is 6-9" across this area.

 

Wichita Area:  Seeing snow beginning around 11AM tommorrow, with generally light snow, occassionally mixing with ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain, with temperatures flirting around 32 to 34 mark.  Then from 6AM to 11Am on the 21st looking for heavier bands of snow to move into the area, with snow rates up to 2.1"/hr possible to include isolated TSSN possible.  Looking fro 4-8" across the Wichita area, with some light ice accumulation possible during periods of freezing rain

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Glad I didn't put MN in the sub title of this thread.  This is what I'm thinking for the Twin City metro area.....

 

Looking at the model's QPF for MSP I see this:

18z/2/19 GFS = .28

12z/2/19 Gem = .33 (estimate)

12z/2/19 Euro = .35

I wished I had the UKMET, but the site that I use didn't load in the 12z/19 run, but it appears as if it will be slightly lower.

So taking a average of the models it is real close to the .33 the GEM is showing. I'm expecting something like a 17:1 ratio out of this storm. That would equal about 5.5" of snow.

Now, looking at the Bufkit sounding forecast I see a dry layer on both the NAM and GFS that has to be overcome. With the winds out of the east, which is generally a drying wind, I think the models are to fast in saturating the column. So I have cut the QPF back by about 20% which may not be enough, but that would yield about 4.5" of snow.

Therefore I think the 2-4" is reasonable and confidence factor is about 7.5 out of 10. That means there is a 25% chance that what I'm thinking is wrong, if that be the case snow total would be around the 1-3" range.

 

yeah, 1-3" is the most likely outcome...MPX must of been riding the euro, "prior to it's 12z run" to issue the wsw's that far north. :axe:

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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yeah, 1-3" is the most likely outcome...MPX must of been riding the euro, "prior to it's 12z run" to issue the wsw's that far north. :axe:

 

I agree with this, up till today the HPC has been riding the Euro as well, I didn't check their model disco today though.  The one thing I will say is that the Euro has been less than stellar this winter season, at least at this latitude...

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mnweather

mnweather

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I agree with this, up till today the HPC has been riding the Euro as well, I didn't check their model disco today though.  The one thing I will say is that the Euro has been less than stellar this winter season, at least at this latitude...

I agree with that.  I think the GFS has performed better up this way this year.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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yeah, 1-3" is the most likely outcome...MPX must of been riding the euro, "prior to it's 12z run" to issue the wsw's that far north. :axe:

 

 

I agree with this, up till today the HPC has been riding the Euro as well, I didn't check their model disco today though.  The one thing I will say is that the Euro has been less than stellar this winter season, at least at this latitude...

 

 

I agree with that.  I think the GFS has performed better up this way this year.

The CMC actually ended up simulating this event quite well...better than both the GFS and ECMWF as it consistently held to a southern track...which made sense given the stout high over the plains...and the deep cold air which tends to shunt northward WAA. It is also somewhat of a model bias to eject leeside lows too far N...although that didn't seem to play a role in its poor simulations. Moist convection and the "bowling ball"/deep PV anomaly nature will also limit moisture advection N as most of the precip load is dumped immediately post-ejection.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

baro, how much for you call for in mcpherson, KS ?

You seriously want my opinion?Crush job, honestly. Even taking into account climo and the rarity of the event, what is so unusual for the central plains any time of the year is the fact you remain in the cold conveyor belt the entire time. Latest ECMWF tracks the mid level front and parks it over central KS...then ejects the upper level PV anomaly right on top of it. Given the moisture feed into this, I won't discount thundersnow over portions of KS...including your area. A conservative estimate is 10", if the ECMWF verifies and then also tracks the deformation band near the end of the event right over you...16''+ isn't out of the question. The onyl negating factor is the front end warm air advection/SJT wave of moisture...which may mix with fzdz as models are really indicating a relatively shallow moist layer...even snow that falls initially will be very low ratio stuff. The fun begins after ejection of the upper low.

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