NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How do temps look? BL is marginal @ best, especially closer to the coast you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its an interesting model battle...if only from a qpf standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Meh. I'm not going to pull my hair out over this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If you take the strength of the vort on the gfs and nam, combine it with euro track. It's a very decent situation for SNJ and Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 BIG changes on 06z NAM, low already forming off SC coast at hr 36 where 0z NAM had a later transfer. 5h looking much improved as well. Big hit coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Philly east comfortably .5+ and the coast at .75+ With that, good night. Hope we can wake up to something nice on the GFS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If you take the strength of the vort on the gfs and nam, combine it with euro track. It's a very decent situation for SNJ and Delaware. you do realize that the stronger solutions will likely track farther north, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 sv snow maps have phl as center point for 2-4 then go 40 miles either side. Barker's clown maps cap it at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 For those wondering at home, there is more consistency from the GFS in the handling/evolution of the 500 mb vort that drives this feature than there has been from the Euro or NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Raw 0z NAM and GFS temps are both at 40 at PHL before precip starts. I'm going to assume rain to snow although a thump of precip may make that rain period shorter in duration... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6z GFS has less than 2" of snow per SV. BL FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lately for this area my forecasts have been just slightly too high. So instead of forecasting 2-3" for the Philly area I'm going to go with a coating to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree with Gorse. Someone is going to pop a 5" or 6" snowfall out of this, but outside of the best forcing, accumulations will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree with Gorse. Someone is going to pop a 5" or 6" snowfall out of this, but outside of the best forcing, accumulations will be limited. I don't think moisture will be an issue with this system, temps will be. A potent h5 low and southern low in mid february usually have no problems in generating moisture. Though if the surface track ticks south to coming off ne nc then it would put the best lift south of us and hinder the snow chances needed to cool the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree with Gorse. Someone is going to pop a 5" or 6" snowfall out of this, but outside of the best forcing, accumulations will be limited. Translation: A few people will get lucky, but most of you will get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The good news is the stripe of moderate snow goes right through our area. The 06z NAM has it close to I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I can see 4-5-6 as the top end but I think it's a narrow band (20 miles wide at widest) where that happens. Most everyone else is going to be 1-2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From Paul Kocin at HPC early this morning... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD235 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013VALID 12Z TUE FEB 12 2013 - 12Z FRI FEB 15 2013...DAYS 1 TO 2...TUESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING......SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NRN MID-ATLSTATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROMNEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BYWEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BESOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEMAPPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY FAST MOVER...BUT ALSO HAS TRENDEDNORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/AS WELL AS MORE DEVELOPED ASIT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WHILE ITS FAST MOVEMENT LIKELYPRECLUDES SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 8 INCHES AT THISPOINT IN THE FORECAST...SEVERAL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE ATLEAST LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...BOTH INNORTHERN TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTVIRGINIA ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO EXTREME SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND.THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER WITH THE SNOWPOSSIBILITIES ON DAY 1/TUESDAY FOR THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTOWESTERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWFHAVE REMAINED DRIER OVER THIS AREA...THE 00Z RUN HAS NOW INCREASEDWITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH A GENERAL .5 TO 1.0 PRECIP MAXIN THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH IS RAIN VS SNOW. AS A RESULT OF ALLTHE MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS AN AREA OF MEDIUM TO HIGHPROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NETEXAS PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS A LOW PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8INCHES.MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE ALSO NARROWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ONTHE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTCOAST ON DAY 2. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FORWARDMOVEMENT OF THE LOW FROM THE MORNING RUNS... WITH A CONSIDERABLELACK OF SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BY DAY 2. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 21ZENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH HAD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO MEANPRECIPITATION AND SUGGEST 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWS FROM NORTHERN WESTVIRGINIA/NORTHERN MARYLAND ACROSS SE PA/MUCH OF NEW JERSEY/LONGISLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLEMEANS ARE ABOUT A THIRD DRIER...WHICH HAS BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THEPAST FEW DAYS.BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/ HAVE NEARLY EXACTSURFACE LOW POSITIONS SE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z CANADIANSLIGHTLY NORTH AND THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY SOUTH. BOTH 00ZGFS/UKMET HAVE SOLUTIONS PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. WHILETHERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL IN PHILADELPHIA TONEW YORK CITY...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW IN WASHINGTOND.C./BALTIMORE WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW MORE LIKELY. THERE ISALSO CONFIDENCE THAT IF IT PRECIPITATES IN BOSTON...IT WILL BESNOW...BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE WHETHER BOSTON WILL SEESIGNIFICANT SNOW. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST OF THEOPERATIONAL RUNS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND IS A TAD SOUTH OF THEOTHER MODELS AS THE LOW REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 00ZNAM HAS RUN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN ITS 18Z RUN AND HAS SNOW FROMWASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW YORK CITY BUT SOUTH OF BOSTON. AS ARESULT...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET WERE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY WITH RESPECTTO THE GENERATION OF SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES.THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ANDSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 To Mt Holly guys: The AFD mistakingly indicates snow changing to rain from north to south for the V storm rather than the opposite. AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL CHANGEFROM SNOW TO RAIN, GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AS THE SURFACEFLOW BACKS FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION RATESINCREASE, COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN DOWN FROM ALOFT ALSOHELPING TO BRING ABOUT THE CHANGE TO SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Unlike the NAM, the 06 GFS sounding for phl on BUFKIT doesn't fully saturate the boundary layer. The 06 GFS is probably too pessimistic on R/S in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 To Mt Holly guys: The AFD mistakingly indicates snow changing to rain from north to south for the V storm rather than the opposite. AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN, GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AS THE SURFACE FLOW BACKS FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE, COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN DOWN FROM ALOFT ALSO HELPING TO BRING ABOUT THE CHANGE TO SNOW. Oops, will fix that. Thanks for catching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC probs: pretty bullish: Not surprised though after reading the disco Mike just put up. and for giggles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looks like a nice hit, pretty good rates from 7pm- 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM is a little more amped. Nice snow over most of area, particularly SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 295 looks like the sweet spot then east along 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yea NAM is looking good. And Paul Kocin going with 4-8"? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like the slight N/W tick on the NAM it's about 20 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Raleigh's snowfall maps have about 4-5" starting from 20 miles west of 95 then about 6-8" as you get to 295 like Gaines said. Won't take much to tick that a tad bit NW to the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice track for this area. Right on NW edge of best dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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