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forkyfork

blizzard of 2013 discussion

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the nam was just model porn, nothing more. some might have tossed some wieners out their kitchen windows but thats about it, and nothing wrong with that either. but the realists knew what the nam was.

you dont come across well in your posts. rather than just laying your ideas out, you make it your days goal to be right and prove you know it. the point is not to be right but to discuss and learn, possibly goofing up in the process, but being positive regardless of your position. yet you tend to just hammer the same thing over and over again....so no, im not arguing model runs, im arguing the way you post.

Well I apologize then to those that I offended/annoyed by the negativity of some of my posts. Surely I get a bit too worked up over it....being positive is not just a way of thinking that goes a long way in weather models but life overall. The way you came across is not exactly as a positive peacemaker though, either. But...moving on....

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Feeling pretty confident now that most of the NYC metro area will get 10-20" of snow. 

Yup. West to East/South to North. Well on that note, pleased with how the Euro held strong for the most part and stuck to it's guns. As I said I am now discounting all the other globals not in agreement with the Euro in a similar way. I predict the Euro ensembles continue to trend as they have all along and come in as cold or colder, wetter and west in track. However, I am exhausted and am not going to be able to wait for them to come out so good night all and here's the snow song I am known to post before an impending big snow and have done so for 12 years on weather message boards, enjoy and good night:

Based on Supertramp's title track to the album Crime of the Century:

Now winter's planning, the storm of the century.

Well when, will it be?

Read all about the snow and strong gusty winds.

Yes, It's well worth a fee

So bundle up and see...(loud but brief guitar intrusion)

How it pounds the universe

How it's gone from bad to worse

Who are these mets. of lust, greed and glory

Steal their models and let's see

But that forecast's not right, oh no what's the story?

Well there's a temp. of 43...

(Shut up, that can't be right)    

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yeah i dont know how good they are or not.... but they match the totals famartin posts.

 

also, you were given a qpf total... not a snow total

Yes but the 1.16'' QPF was all snow.  Even with just 10:1 ratios that's about a foot.  In Middlesex we may get slightly more QPF but that's probably lost due to a little rain/sleet mixing so in the end it probably evens out.

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DP up to 30 and temp 35. May be a stuggle for a while as expected. 

Its going to be real close, the dewpoints are not going up as much as I'd have thought, if we are 35/28 or so when precip arrives it could get interesting but then we have the issue of whats happening at 850-925 also

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Yes but the 1.16'' QPF was all snow.  Even with just 10:1 ratios that's about a foot.  In Middlesex we may get slightly more QPF but that's probably lost due to a little rain/sleet mixing so in the end it probably evens out.

 

 

i dont think the 1.16 is all snow.  mt. holly's forecast for SMQ has rain in it.

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i dont think the 1.16 is all snow.  mt. holly's forecast for SMQ has rain in it.

I'm aware Mt. Holly's forecast has rain but I'm not sure how that's relevant.  ag3's opinion of the Euro run verbatim based on the text soundings is that it's all snow.

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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php

 

click on 3hr precip increments and fast foward. i've never seen rates that high on the BTV WRF meso (4km version). if you go to 1900 and 2200 frame tommorrow , each 3 hr period has nyc getting a shade over 1" qpf. lmao

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad33.html

 

0z hrrr destroys NYC with 3.75 qpf. 

 

now i'm not saying they are gonna verify, no but damn they are showing a nice banding signal for NYC area

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