Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Quixotic1]

Had a nice little bow go through here this evening. Enough to get Collin warned.

[bubba hotep]

First real storms of '14 delivers a much needed soaking

 

[Chinook]

I was watching Weathernation yesterday (I can't get TWC anymore... DirecTV). I saw that they mentioned that a dust storm hit Lubbock, and on radar, the dirt was a large streak of 20dBz radar returns! I just looked up yesterday's radar to verify it.

 

 

article on Wunderground.com

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/texas-dust-storm-haboob-photos-20140319

[Ed Lizard]

I was watching Weathernation yesterday (I can't get TWC anymore... DirecTV). I saw that they mentioned that a dust storm hit Lubbock, and on radar, the dirt was a large streak of 20dBz radar returns! I just looked up yesterday's radar to verify it.

 

 

article on Wunderground.com

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/texas-dust-storm-haboob-photos-20140319

Amarillo NWS posted pix on their FB page...

 

 

View from the office.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Amarillo.gov

[1900hurricane]

Burrr.

 

.CLIMATE...
AS OF CURRENT ALL THREE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES REMAIN BELOW FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH. HERE IS A TABLE OF CURRENT MONTHLY DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL (1981-2010):

COLLEGE STATION (KCLL): -5.7
CITY OF HOUSTON (KIAH): -4.2
HOUSTON HOBBY (KHOU): -4.0
CITY OF GALVESTON (KGLS): -3.8

THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE BOTH HAD BELOW
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES SINCE OCTOBER.

HOUSTON HOBBY AND THE CITY OF GALVESTON HAVE HAD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SINCE NOVEMBER.

[Ed Lizard]

When did my wife's alma mater The University of Houston start releasing balloons?  I didn't think they had a program for met.

 

 

Its is important for tomorrow because a balloon launched around mid-day would do miracles as far as revealing what may happen.  HGX gets some aircraft data, they get an idea from planes coming in (it is propietary data and not available outside NWS), and will mention in their discussions what the temps are at certain levels and whether they think the cap will break, but someone actually uploading the sounding, that can be compared by interested amateurs like me with various meso and short range models, and help me out.

I know CLL launches balloons in certain situations, that is almost 100 miles away, and Montgomery County is so often the magic FUNderstorm/nothing line.  If tomorrow morning is still a 'SEE TEXT' or a low end slight, I don't know if any balloons get launched.

Beyond SETX, Texas in general, if one includes LCH as being almost a Texas site, Texas is still ringed at the periphery with RAOB sites with none in the middle.  EWX or SJT (I'd personally prefer EWX, really, I'd prefer HGX, but again, on the periphery of the state) as a RAOB site would be nice to have.  EWX for the state in general, SJT would probably be better for sampling what may be inbound for the DFW Metroplex population center.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS has lapse rates below about 750 mb about 5ºC/km, or pretty lame, but steep lapse rates above at 18Z (1 pm) and TT (measure of instability between 850 mb and 500 mb) of 56, which is pretty decent.

 

With cold shelf waters and clouds, wouldn't expect much warming before the GFS MCS which misse HOU area to the North and Northeast as it slides ESE (but doesn't miss by much), so tornado risk would be near nil. 

 

Very weak capping shown, near 750 mb.  I suspect even if capping weakens, with very 'meh' low level lapse rates storms would still be rather elevated.  Maybe enough speed and directional shear mid level for a minor hail threat.

[Quixotic1]

Impressive line forming right overhead here in Denton Co.

[bubba hotep]

Impressive line forming right overhead here in Denton Co.

I got some decent pics of that cell as it moved just north of us. I'll try and upload a couple tomorrow.

[Ed Lizard]

(Potential) Good news for SETX, where I am going on 6 years w/o a 50 knot wind gust IMBY.

 

Copy and paste from Steve's KHOU-TV11 forum, regular NAM not much fun, but hi-res NAM has fun all over it

 

Copied:

Models support precip tomorrow and conditions look a lot better than they did today for severe weather. To be honest the slight risk issued today was unnecessary. I think the hatched area for tomorrow is worthy though especially if we get a lot of clearing.


12Z models excluding the Euro suggested not much rain, which generally suggests no thunderstorms (Even Euro amounts seem more like showers). New NAM seems to develop decent convection out near I-35, that judging by 3 hour precip rates, weakens as it approaches I-45. Still decent looking rain around 4 pm per NAM.

Maybe because we'll have a harder time seeing much clearing than areas farther West and the storms will become elevated. Winds near the surface will be fairly light as well.



The water colder that 20ºC has actually shrunk a tad, but a cold Winter may still affect our chances this FUNderstorm season. Of course, maybe as the season progresses, we'll get more negative tilted or cut off 'bowling ball' lows, which usually seem to come with more easily broken caps.



.. .. .. .. Hot off the presses just before I hit enter!!!!
Glass quarter full, high res 4 km NAM shows what looks like a supercell in Harris County around 6 and 7 pm
 

[bch2014]

Hi All-

 

I just wanted to introduce myself as I'll be posting more in this forum soon.. I'm from Boston and coming down to Houston for school in August. I can't wait, and I have a couple questions about Houston weather in general that maybe you guys could answer:

 

1) Are strong thunderstorms prevalent in Houston or do they typically peter out in Central TX?

2) Obviously it depends on the storm, but are the effects of a tropical system in Houston typically very significant? For example, in Ike, was the city "shut down" for weeks?

 

I'll be down in a couple weeks and can't wait for some warmer weather after the brutal cold we've had here! I'll miss the snow though!

[bubba hotep]

I got some decent pics of that cell as it moved just north of us. I'll try and upload a couple tomorrow.

 

[Quixotic1]

Nice shot bubba hotep. The feeder obscured my view so thanks for the image.

[DoctorMu]

1) Are strong thunderstorms prevalent in Houston or do they typically peter out in Central TX?

 

Capping in the Spring limits severe activity, but it can occur in the HOU area.  More severe stuff is generally north and west of Hearne, though CLL and Montgomery Co can see a twister or two.  The Hill Country and parts N can see cool supercells and severe weather along dry lines, fronts, etc.  Popcorn showers are prevalent in May and June.

 

2) Obviously it depends on the storm, but are the effects of a tropical system in Houston typically very significant? For example, in Ike, was the city "shut down" for weeks?

 

Most of the damage from Ike was towards the coast, although there were downed trees and power outages in HOU.  Texas actually depends on some tropical activity for rain in July and August, ideally in wave or TS form...it's hard to titrate that stuff!  

 

The farther east in Texas you go the less the concern about summer droughts, which have become more year round.  We're in the middle of a ten year drought cycle.  So enjoy the heat, and fingers crossed for reservoir capacity and lack of wildfires.

 

 

I'll be down in a couple weeks and can't wait for some warmer weather after the brutal cold we've had here! I'll miss the snow though!

 

That you will get.  Summers can be long and brutal.  Welcome to SE Texas!

[Ed Lizard]

Has there been a confirmed EF-2 or above in the immediate HOU metro (Harris and adjacent counties) since 1992?

[Srain]

Has there been a confirmed EF-2 or above in the immediate HOU metro (Harris and adjacent counties) since 1992?

Yes...

 

1994=1

1997=1

2001=1

2002=1 EF3

2003=2

[Ed Lizard]

Yes...

 

1994=1

1997=1

2001=1

2002=1 EF3

2003=2

OK, 94 I was in college, 97 I was working in Louisiana, but I'd have thought I'd remember a real tornado near MBY in the 21st century.  Still, tornado alley, we're not in it.  I do remember Jarrell and the F-5 (were they doing EF yet?), they had a low power station that broadcast polkas. and after, I stopped and got gas at the Texaco station that was in the foreground of a picture.

 

Not Czech, but I watch the Mollie B Polka Party each week on RFD.

 

 

I drove by the Rice ISD schools two or three weeks after the Autumn tornadoes a few years ago, tarps on the roofs, children back in class.  Pass right by it going to NASCAR.  One of these years having a race the first or second weekend of April in Denton County (Northern part of DFW Metroplex), maybe we'll get to see what baseball sized hail does to $100,000 race cars...

[Quixotic1]

OK, 94 I was in college, 97 I was working in Louisiana, but I'd have thought I'd remember a real tornado near MBY in the 21st century. Still, tornado alley, we're not in it. I do remember Jarrell and the F-5 (were they doing EF yet?), they had a low power station that broadcast polkas. and after, I stopped and got gas at the Texaco station that was in the foreground of a picture.

Not Czech, but I watch the Mollie B Polka Party each week on RFD.

I drove by the Rice ISD schools two or three weeks after the Autumn tornadoes a few years ago, tarps on the roofs, children back in class. Pass right by it going to NASCAR. One of these years having a race the first or second weekend of April in Denton County (Northern part of DFW Metroplex), maybe we'll get to see what baseball sized hail does to $100,000 race cars...

The assesor for my insurance company told me as he totaled my car from a 1999 hailstorm that he totaled a brand new Lexus that had been parked in the garage during the 95 Mayfest storm. Said the grapefruit went right through the garage roof.

As someone who lived in Tarrant at the time, some folks cars looked like jackhammers had been at them.

[bch2014]

Is there any Texas tornado database where you can look up storms? My family was affected by an EF4 in Hubbard (Northeast of Waco) in 1973. There isn't much I've been able to find by googling and all the family stories are purely anecdotal and I take some with a grain of salt. Obviously, it's not a very populated area, but it is relatively accessible and not totally isolated. If anybody could point me in the right direction, I'd appreciate it immensely.

[Srain]

Is there any Texas tornado database where you can look up storms? My family was affected by an EF4 in Hubbard (Northeast of Waco) in 1973. There isn't much I've been able to find by googling and all the family stories are purely anecdotal and I take some with a grain of salt. Obviously, it's not a very populated area, but it is relatively accessible and not totally isolated. If anybody could point me in the right direction, I'd appreciate it immensely.

The Hill County  March 10th, 1973 F 4 tornado formed just S of Mart. It traveled 23.3 miles N and NNE and lifted near Hubbard. 6 Died and 77 injured throughout its life.

[Ed Lizard]

The assesor for my insurance company told me as he totaled my car from a 1999 hailstorm that he totaled a brand new Lexus that had been parked in the garage during the 95 Mayfest storm. Said the grapefruit went right through the garage roof.

As someone who lived in Tarrant at the time, some folks cars looked like jackhammers had been at them.

 

 

My parents in Bedford got a free roof out of the Mayfest/Cinco de Mayo hail storm.  The old roof was due for fixing soon, Allstate (IIRC) had an agreement with Sears and waived the deductible for using Sears.  Needed a new roof anyway, and got one for free.

[Ed Lizard]

Got enough sprinkles to ruin any outdoor plans and wet the roads, not enough to help what looks like a developing drought.

 

 

Messing with NASCAR fans, but North Texas needs the rain even more than we do.  Wichita Falls may have banned lawn watering already.  The snow I saw there in February was the first measureable precip of the year at SPS.

[Ed Lizard]

I learned a lesson.  I assumed, even as close as 36-48 hours, the GFS was superior to the NAM.  NAM and 4 km NAM predicted lack of significant rainfall pretty well.

New lesson, may not work 100% of the time, but would be near perfect this year, whichever model is driest in Metro Houston is probably correct.

Waiting to see if new NAM or 4 km NAM in a little while shows what last night's 0Z 4 km NAM showed, and GFS showed about 4 days ago, storms developing under a final disturbance rotating towards the SE around the trough during peak heating, and starting to fall apart at sundown as it approaches HOU, but still brings some rain to some people in the HGX CWA.

 

Unless all the models show it, and even then, that makes it a coin flip, it won't happen.

 

I try to be glass full optimistic, one of the ice storms killed electricity at my house for a few hours and gave me an excuse to sleep in late (the other ice storm, my millionaire boss who lives about 5 miles from the Galleria insisted the roads were fine.  That was the big bridge/overpass ice storm, where enough rain fell before the ice to wash off the magnesium chloride salt solution TXDOT had put down on bridges and overpasses, and what appeared to be awesome turned out into a multi-hour commute, and there is no way, even on surface streets, to avoid bridges between MBY and the Galleria) but as a rule, SETX has been completely boring for over six years, and even Ike wasn't cool as it appeared, it led to the year without a Summer at the beach.

[Quixotic1]

My parents in Bedford got a free roof out of the Mayfest/Cinco de Mayo hail storm.  The old roof was due for fixing soon, Allstate (IIRC) had an agreement with Sears and waived the deductible for using Sears.  Needed a new roof anyway, and got one for free.

 

I jinxed myself:

 

[Quixotic1]

One other pic from 4/3/14.  Towering, impending doom from IMBY:

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

As per last night's 0Z run, 4 km NAM shows thunderstorms developing during peak heating as a last piece of energy rotates SE around the departing trough as NW flow aloft becomes established, and although weakening as they approach, giving some in the HOU metro rain.  0Z NAM forms far fewer showers and doesn't rain on HOU metro, and based on my new model evaluation tool, driest is probably correct if models aren't unanimous, tomorrow will be a dry day locally.

 

As expected, 4 km NAM has fallen in line with its cousin, the scattered storms that develop during the heat of the day under the upper disturbance completely fall apart before reaching anywhere near Metro Houston. 

 

Austin still has a chance.  SPC has them in a 'SEE TEXT' for a greater than 5% risk of severe hail or wind, although write up describes any severe hail or wind as marginal. 

 

50 knots may be 'marginal, but better my yard has done in almost 6 years.

 

 

Nothing on radar yet, but 4 km WRF says the first showers and storms should start by 1 pm well North and West of Austin.  Isolated storms would reach Austin area between 4 and 6 pm, the isolated storms should be in range of HGX radar between 7 and 9 pm, causing false optimism, and have diminished completely by 10 pm.  NAM shows a lone decent shower closer to SAT this afternoon, but either way, no rain for SETX.  Wondering if 4 km NAM might at least mean seeing anvils in the distance during the commute home.

[DoctorMu]

^Incoming.  I hope they hold together.  Grass and trees are slow to wake up this year.  Cold was OK...the tentacles of prolonged drought are concerning.

 

 

May not be enough heat left for these puppies to hold together...although there's a bit of energy in the dip of the jet  

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
WATCHING SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP W & NW OF THE TERMINALS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF & DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST CLUSTER
APPROACHING MATAGORDA BAY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT SE TX
TERMINALS THEMSELVES BUT COULD BE A BUMPY RIDE FOR THOSE HEADED
THAT WAY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN CNTL TX SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO SE TX 2-9Z. OVERALL COVERAGE & INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ADDED SOME TEMPOS FOR CLL/UTS AND KEPT VCSH`S IN PLACE WHERE THEY
WERE ALREADY ADVERTISED.

 

 

 

 

Not brave enough to plant a tree this year.

[1900hurricane]

Not optimistic about storms making it to me. The atmosphere is really dry and temperatures have started to crash now that the sun has set.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DoctorMu]

A swing...and a miss as the edge licked the Brazos River.  

 

An early appearance of the Aggiedome as the withering cluster slides to the south.   Showers reaching tantalizingly close to NW Harris...

 

 

edit:  haha caught a little back door action as a last line of showers held together...

[Ed Lizard]

2011 redux?

I don't know if it is causation/correlation, but I suspect the dry ground heating more rapidly has something to do with where the Summertime sub-tropical ridge will park, probably near or just North of SETX, a shield of forged titanium alloy against systems from the Westerlies, warm and descending air aloft that means little sea breeze FUNderstorm activity, and whatever tropical disturbances and waves that survive the next coming of 1997 will be steered well South into Mexico.

I wonder if Bastrop will catch fire again.  If they'll be a living pine tree left in Houston's Memorial Park...