tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah, it's in the realm of possibility but it probably needs a bit more dig on the northern wave to nudge the southern wave out a bit to the east, all while phasing everything together juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssssssssttttttttttt right...ultimate thread the needle. this could be your first one, i don't know what things look like before this. But if a track took this i would imagine some parts of mt holly cwa would get frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 fwiw, this is the rap 18 hrs from now, so take with a grain of salt till its within 8hrs. Will be interesting to see how it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 EURO is standing alone and has been getting killed at this range all winter, plus its basically a rainstorm for most of us, so not like it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I fully expect the euro to lose that solution @12z today. It's been terrible in this regard of over amplifying things in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Similar to recent clippers SREF/NAM more robust than GFS. Models have been increasing amounts in E NJ. Still looks like an inch or two with most in E NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Similar to recent clippers SREF/NAM more robust than GFS. Models have been increasing amounts in E NJ. Still looks like an inch or two with most in E NJ Ocean/Monmouth counties #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I think central jersey is in a good spot to see local amounts of 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I fully expect the euro to lose that solution @12z today. It's been terrible in this regard of over amplifying things in the medium range. let's hope! if we had weenies in this forum they would love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I don't think the 0z/6z RGEM looks too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 09 sref is a little more robust particularly in coastal NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I agree with others posters and think someone in NJ sees 3" maybe a tad more in isolated locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes central jersey tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes central jersey tonight Continues trend. 2-3" looks better there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Continues trend. 2-3" looks better there now. it will be interesting to see how much lift we get in the snow growth region. If its better than sat night a lot of areas should get better than an inch at least. The 700mb temps still look pretty good for greater than 10:1 ratios. Going to come down to how much qpf. .1 or more could yield 1.5-2 inches, .2 could be 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 it will be interesting to see how much lift we get in the snow growth region. If its better than sat night a lot of areas should get better than an inch at least. The 700mb temps still look pretty good for greater than 10:1 ratios. Going to come down to how much qpf. .1 or more could yield 1.5-2 inches, .2 could be 3-4. Seems to be a bit more potent then Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Seems to be a bit more potent then Saturday night? Yea its a good bit stronger, more moisture. If the lift is good should do pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS has notta here Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS has notta here Friday/Saturday I'm telling you, this time frame all year the EURO as been blowing storms up...I trust the GFS right now better than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm telling you, this time frame all year the EURO as been blowing storms up...I trust the GFS right now better than the EURO. i'll take the GFS to save the skiers snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS has notta here Friday/Saturday It does have a little stronger southern stream than previous runs which is a step to the euro but no phasing like the euro. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS is also a little stronger with tues night system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It does have a little stronger southern stream than previous runs which is a step to the euro but no phasing like the euro. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system. As far as Thursday/Friday, there is still no blocking and forecasted track is a rainmaker for the coastal plain. Lots of warm air rushing in to meet this moisture. Lack of a negative NAO, and tracks which coastal hug, or deepen too far East or north, is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 the gefs for tonights event are wetter than the op. Pretty much .1-.25 for everyone from abe south and ilg to acy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Overnite clipper tonite, 2" mark for someone with better dynamics than what we saw over the weekend? tombo says 12Z GEFS looking wetter (.1 - .25). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the gefs for tonights event are wetter than the op. Pretty much .1-.25 for everyone from abe south and ilg to acy north i'm sure road crews are use to these by now and will treat roads quickly for morning rush. so gfs warms next week with some wet then bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z euro 96hr , low sc/nc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 102 hr low off dl/nj coast trending need more cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That euro is stubborn...! Colder solution. HM ftw? Snow/mix From Allentown NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 OTS? coast runner? Lake Huron Hammer? Inside the bm or very close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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